So far Andruw Jones has struggled and if this continues he has no chance of making the team. So far he is 1-for-7 with 6 strikeouts. Also, Josh Hamilton is tearing it up and is 4-for-8 with 2 home runs and 3 RBI’s (one in each of the three games so far). Scott Feldman allowed 9 hits, 7 runs, and 4 earned runs in only 1.2 innings pitched in his first game of the spring. Kevin Millwood had three strikeouts and allowed only one hit in 2 innings of work on Thursday.
The Rangers have 11 infielders in major league camp. This week, I analyzed the infielders in big league camp and gave their chances of making the team at the end of Spring Training. I also gave my prediction for what the Opening Day infield roster will look like.
Infielders:
Elvis Andrus: Elvis Andrus was part of the Mark Teixeira trade in ’07 and has played well since then. He hit .300 in Bakersfield in 2007 after hitting only .244 for the Myrtle Beach Pelicans (the Braves’ High-A team) before the trade. Last year he hit .295 with 4 home runs and 65 RBI’s, but only had 38 walks the whole year in Frisco. With Michael Young moving to third, that opens up the shortstop for Andrus and he will probably be the starting shortstop.
Percentage chance of making the team out of Spring Training: 89.7%
Joaquin Arias: Joaquin Arias had 110 at-bats in the majors last year and hit .291 with 0 HR’s and only 9 RBI’s. He stole four bases out of five attempts. With runners in scoring position and two outs he only hit .133 and he only hit .200 with runners on base. He has struggled to regain his arm strength after his injury a couple of years ago. He has a chance to be the utility guy on this team, but that role will probably go to Omar Vizquel.
Percentage: 25.6%
Hank Blalock: Blalock has gotten injured each of the past two years and hasn’t gotten 260 at-bats since ’06. In 2007, he hit .293 with 10 HR’s and 33 RBI’s in 208 AB’s. In 2008, he hit .287 with 12 HR’s and 38 RBI’s in just 258 at-bats. But he only had .475 walks (19) for every strikeout (40). His fielding percentage was only .951 last year when he played third base, significantly worse than his .996 fielding percentage at first base. He really struggled last year with runners in scoring position as he only hit .239, and with runners in scoring position and two outs he only hit .158. With two outs he only hit .200 and he hit .358 with no outs. He also hit way better at home than on the road, hitting .343 at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington and hitting .248 on the road. He only had a .14 point difference between facing right-handed pitchers (.291 AVG) and facing left-handed pitchers (.277 AVG). He will probably break camp as the DH unless he is traded or released.
Percentage: 97.8%
Chris Davis: Last year Chris Davis made his MLB debut, and he had a great one. He hit .285 with 17 HR’s and 55 RBI’s in 295 at-bats. If you double his stats (which would equal about 148 games with 4 AB’s in each of them) he would have had 34 HR’s and 110 RBI’s in a season’s worth of at-bats. That’s pretty good for a rookie year. He hit .325 in September. He is almost a lock for the starting first baseman on Opening Day.
Percentage: 99.4%
German Duran: German also made his major league debut last season and played in 60 major league games. He hit .231 with 3 HR’s and 16 RBI’s in 143 AB’s. He played 2B, 3B, SS, and OF and that flexibility is what gives him a chance at being the utility guy out of Spring Training. But, with the acquisition of Omar Vizquel, he’s most likely to start the season in the minors.
Percentage: 41.3%
Ian Kinsler: Before getting injured last season, Ian Kinsler was an MVP candidate. He had a .319 AVG with 18 HR’s and 71 RBI’s in 518 AB’s and most of those from the lead-off spot. He still got a tenth place MVP vote, even after missing all of September and some of August. He also had 26 stolen bases and will be the starting second baseman out of camp.
Percentage: 100%
Travis Metcalf: Last year Travis Metcalf only had 56 at-bats in the majors and 265 in Oklahoma City due to injuries. He only hit .253 with 5 HR’s and 37 RBI’s at Oklahoma City and he wasn’t as great at defense as he normally is, as he had 12 errors. In the majors, Metcalf hit only .232 with 6 HR’s and 14 RBI’s. He was hoping to be the team’s regular third baseman this year, but with Michael Young’s move to third, he probably will not make the team out of Spring Training. But he has a good chance of being called up later on in the year. He is currently spending some time at first base in order to increase his usefulness as a utility player.
Percentage: 29.9%
Justin Smoak: After being drafted in the 1st round by the Rangers last year, Smoak went straight up to Clinton. In 14 games and 56 at-bats Smoak hit .304 with 2 HR’s and 18 RBI’s. He is a huge prospect and will probably be great soon, but he has no shot out of Spring Training this year and he is in major league camp just so he can get used to it.
Percentage: 0.2%
Jose Vallejo: Jose Vallejo played well last year in the minors. In High-A Bakersfield, Jose hit .287 with 9 HR’s, 50 RBI’s, and 27 stolen bases. In Double-A Frisco, Vallejo hit .297 with 2 HR’s, 31 RBI’s, and 15 stolen bases. He probably will not make the team out of Spring Training, but could take a step forward and start off at Oklahoma City.
Percentage: 11.6%
Omar Vizquel: Omar Vizquel, an 11-time Gold Glove winner, was signed by the Rangers over the offseason to a minor league deal. Last year he only hit .222, but only had 5 more strikeouts (29) than walks (24) in 266 at-bats. In 2007 he hit .246 with 4 HR’s and 51 RBI’s. 2006 was his last really good year at the plate, although he’s always a stud defensively, as he hit .295 that year. The Rangers hope he will mentor Elvis Andrus and be the utility guy out of Spring Training, but could play himself out of that role.
Percentage: 81.9%
Michael Young: After five straight years of getting 200 hits and hitting over .300, Michael did neither one of those last year, hitting only.284 (which is low for him, not for most people) and 183 hits. He will be the starting third baseman for the Rangers as long as he’s healthy.
Percentage: 100%
Predicted Infield Roster:
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Ian Kinsler
3B: Michael Young
SS: Elvis Andrus
DH: Hank Blalock
Utility: Omar Vizquel
Next in line:
German Duran
Travis Metcalf
Come back next week for Part 1 of an interview with former Rangers pitcher Jeff Zimmerman. I will come back and do my analysis of the catchers in camp in two weeks, but here are my predictions for the Rangers’ roster on Opening Day:
Starter #1: Kevin Millwood
Starter #2: Vicente Padilla
Starter #3: Matt Harrison
Starter #4: Scott Feldman
Starter #5: Brandon McCarthy
Long Reliever: Dustin Nippert
Long Reliever/Middle Reliever: Doug Mathis
Long Reliever/Middle Reliever: Josh Rupe
Middle Reliever: CJ Wilson
Middle Reliever: Warner Madrigal
Set-up Man: Eddie Guardado
Closer: Frankie Francisco
Starting Catcher: Taylor Teagarden
Back-up Catcher: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Ian Kinsler
3B: Michael Young
SS: Elvis Andrus
DH: Hank Blalock
Utility: Omar Vizquel
Center Field: Josh Hamilton
Right Field: Nelson Cruz
Left Field vs. Righties: David Murphy
Left Field vs. Lefties: Marlon Byrd
Back-up Outfielder: Frank Catalanotto
Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think will be the 5th man in the starting rotation?
Brandon McCarthy – 38%
Kris Benson – 19%
Matt Harrison – 14%
Jason Jennings – 14%
Scott Feldman – 9%
Dustin Nippert – 4%
Doug Mathis – 0%
Other – 0%
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Spring Training Pitchers Analysis Part 2
The Rangers now have 32 pitchers in major league camp with the signing of Kris Benson. This week, I analyzed the second half of the pitchers in big league camp and gave their chances of making the team at the end of Spring Training (see last week’s post for analysis of the first half of the pitchers). I also gave my prediction for what the Opening Day pitching roster will look like.
Jason Jennings: Jason struggled last year before his injury. He went 0-5 with an 8.56 ERA and allowed 35 hits and walked 18 batters in just 27.1 innings pitched. That is a WHIP of 1.94. He then got injured and had season-ending surgery after just six games. In 2007, went 2-9 with a 6.45 ERA with the Astros. Even though he had less than twice the amount of walks in over three times the amount of innings, his WHIP was still very high as it was about 1.57 through 19 games and 99 innings pitched. He also had season-ending surgery in ’07. His only year with an ERA under 4.50 came in ’06 (his contract year) with the Colorado Rockies. His record was only 9-13, but he had a 3.78 ERA and the most innings he had pitched in a season in his career with 212 IP, only the second time he had pitched 200 innings in a season. He still had control problems though, as he walked 85 and had a WHIP of about 1.39. With most teams, he probably wouldn’t have much of a shot of making the starting rotation, but with the Rangers, he can work his way in if he pitches well in Spring Training and either Matt Harrison struggles, Scott Feldman struggles, or Brandon McCarthy either struggles (which still might not kick him out of the rotation) or Brandon McCarthy gets injured again (which is very likely to happen).
Percentage chance of making the team out of Spring Training: 34.6%
Warner Madrigal: Warner made his major league debut last year, but as a pitcher, not a hitter, which he had been for almost all of his minor league career. He went 0-2 with a 4.75 ERA and one save in 36 innings pitched, although he seemed to pitch much better than his ERA shows. He probably will make the team as a middle reliever out of Spring Training.
Percentage: 75.2%
Doug Mathis: Doug made his major league debut last year, and although his ERA was 6.85, he went 2-1 and only had two bad games. He had four relief appearances and four starts before a season-ending injury. He allowed nine runs in 2.1 innings pitched at the Twins in his first career start, but he didn’t even pitch that bad as only six of the nine runs were earned and there was a lot of luck going the Twins way. as there were a couple of perfect pitches where a Twin flung his bat out and somehow slapped the ball down the line, there were plenty of bloopers, and there were errors. He then dominated the Indians in his next game, going six innings and allowing only one run. Then, after struggling against Cleveland in his next game, he pitched well against the Rays, allowing 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched. He has a shot at making the Opening Day rotation and the bullpen and, due to his flexibility, I think he will make the team if he is healthy.
Percentage: 64.5%
Brandon McCarthy: Brandon McCarthy was once again injured for much of the season in 2008. He only pitched 22 innings in five games and went 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA and had 10 strikeouts and 8 walks. He struggled in 2007 when he was healthy, as he went 5-10 with a 4.87 ERA in 101.2 innings pitched. In 2007, his WHIP was 1.56. He played with the White Sox for two years before the Danks trade and went 4-7 with a 4.68 ERA in 2006 and went 3-2 with a 4.03 ERA in 2005. This year, if he stays healthy, he could actually be in a position for the first time in his career where he can pitch himself out of a job if someone else pitches himself into a job.
Percentage: 72.2% (this percentage doesn’t include injuries, so this is if he doesn’t get injured)
Luis Mendoza: In 2008, (when he wasn’t injured) Mendoza struggled as he went 3-8 with an 8.67 ERA in 63.1 innings pitched. His WHIP was also terrible, at 1.93. He will probably need to pitch his way onto the team after his terrible year last year, and I don’t think that he will do that.
Percentage: 43.3%
Kevin Millwood: Kevin has struggled since signing with the Rangers. He hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in his three years with the team and he has allowed more hits than innings pitched all three years. In 2006, he had his best year as a Ranger as he went 16-12 with a 4.52 ERA and threw over 200 innings (215) while striking out 157 batters. In 2007, he went 10-14 with a 5.16 ERA and threw only 172.2 innings with 123 strike outs and 67 walks. In 2008, he went 9-10 with a 5.07 ERA in only 168.2 innings pitched, and still gave up 220 hits and 18 homers. Even if he still had options, his $10 million salary gives him a spot on the team.
Percentage: 100%
Guillermo Moscoso: In 2008, he had a 5-4 record between the Lakeland Flying Tigers and the Erie SeaWolves. With High-A Lakeland he had a 2.42 ERA and with Double-A Erie he had a 3.12 ERA. He struck out 122 batters and walked only 21 in 86.2 innings total. He will probably start the year off at either Frisco or Oklahoma City.
Percentage: 4.4%
Dustin Nippert: Dustin went 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA in 71.2 innings pitched in his first year with the Rangers. He pitched in 20 games and started in 6 of those 20. With the Diamondbacks in 2007, he went 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA and was used only as a reliever. He pitched much better as a starter than a reliever, as he had a 5.63 ERA as a starter and a 7.03 ERA as a reliever in 2008. He really struggled with men in scoring position last year with a 16.50 ERA and had a 22.18 ERA with runners in scoring position with two outs. I think that he will make the team because he can be both a starter and a reliever.
Percentage: 51.2%
Vicente Padilla: Vicente has spent three years with the team and this will probably be his last. Last year he led the team in wins with 14 and only lost 8, but he had a 4.74 ERA and only pitched 171 innings. He also walked 65 batters, hit 15 batters, and allowed 185 hits. In 2007, he went 6-10 with 5.76 ERA in only 120.1 innings pitched and in 2006 he went 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA. He will make the team out of Spring Training unless he gets traded or something.
Percentage: 100%
Omar Poveda: Last year Omar spent the whole year at High-A Bakersfield and went 4-4 with a 4.47 ERA in 90.2 innings pitched. His WHIP was 1.35, but there is almost no chance of him making the team out of Spring Training. He was placed on the 40-man roster during the off-season in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft but he needs more development time in the minors.
Percentage: 2.2%
Elizardo Ramirez: Last year was Elizardo’s first year in the Rangers organization. He only pitched 2.2 innings in the majors and still allowed 9 earned runs. In Oklahoma City, he went 10-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 160 innings pitched. He has a chance of making the bullpen if he impresses in Spring Training, but he probably won’t. He’s more likely to be an insurance policy at triple-A.
Percentage: 29.5%
Josh Rupe: Even though his ERA was 5.14 last year, it seemed like he did much better than that, even though he had a 12.90 ERA with runners in scoring position. His record was 3-1 in 89.1 innings pitched and 46 and only struck out 53. He will probably make the team out of Spring Training if he pitches well.
Percentage: 62.4%
Joseph Torres: Joe Torres went 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA in Double-A Birmingham last year in 50.1 innings pitched. He walked 31 batters, but only allowed 29 hits. He probably won’t make the team out of Spring Training this year, if he makes the team at all.
Percentage: 3.6%
Derrick Turnbow: Derrick Turnbow signed a minor league deal with the Rangers this offseason. He is a former closer for the Milwaukee Brewers. 2005 was his first season with Milwaukee and he went 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 39 saves in 67.1 innings pitched. In 2006, he struggled, going 4-9 with a 6.87 ERA and 24 saves in 56.1 innings pitched. He no longer had the closer role in 2007 and he went 4-5 with a 4.63 ERA in 68 innings pitched. Last year he only pitched 6.1 innings for the Brewers and went 0-1 with a 15.63 ERA. He will definitely have to earn his way onto the team, but he can do that.
Percentage: 41.4%
CJ Wilson: CJ has four years of major league experience (2005-2008). In 2005, he went 1-7 with a 6.94 ERA in 48 innings pitched. In 2006, he went 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA in 44.1 innings pitched. 2007 was his best year as he had a 3.03 ERA and 12 saves with a 2-1 record. Last year, he broke camp as the team’s closer but struggled, going 2-2 with a 6.02 ERA and 24 saves in 46.1 innings pitched before season-ending elbow surgery. CJ has a lot of talent and seems to have recovered well from his surgery. He will probably make the team but not as the closer.
Percentage: 92.9%
Kris Benson: Kris started his major league career in Pittsburgh in 1999 and threw almost 200 innings with a 4.07 ERA in his rookie season. In 2000, he threw 217.2 innings and had a 3.85 ERA. 2002 was his first year with a winning record, as he went 9-6 with a 4.70 ERA. He threw only 105 innings in 2003. In 2004, he went to the Mets halfway through the season and had a 4.31 ERA in 200.1 innings between Pittsburgh and New York. After a 10-8 season in 2005, Kris went to Baltimore in 2006 and went 11-12 with a 4.82 ERA in 183 innings pitched. He has not pitched in the majors in either of his past two seasons due to injuries. The Rangers signed him to a minor league deal last week and Kris is trying to prove that he’s fully healthy. He has a chance to break the starting rotation with a great spring training but is more likely to start at triple-A. He can become a free agent in May if not added to the team by then.
Percentage: 36.4%
Projected Opening Day Pitching Roster:
Starter #1: Kevin Millwood
Starter #2: Vicente Padilla
Starter #3: Matt Harrison
Starter #4: Scott Feldman
Starter #5: Brandon McCarthy
Long Reliever: Dustin Nippert
Long Reliever/Middle Reliever: Doug Mathis
Long Reliever/Middle Reliever: Josh Rupe
Middle Reliever: CJ Wilson
Middle Reliever: Warner Madrigal
Set-up Man: Eddie Guardado
Closer: Frankie Francisco
Next in line:
Brendan Donnelly
Luis Mendoza
Willie Eyre
Derrick Turnbow
Kris Benson
Jason Jennings
Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think will be the Rangers closer?
Frankie Francisco – 67%
Derrick Turnbow – 10%
CJ Wilson – 10%
Eddie Guardado – 7%
Other – 3%
Warner Madrigal – 0%
Come back next week for the Spring Training Infielders Analysis.
Jason Jennings: Jason struggled last year before his injury. He went 0-5 with an 8.56 ERA and allowed 35 hits and walked 18 batters in just 27.1 innings pitched. That is a WHIP of 1.94. He then got injured and had season-ending surgery after just six games. In 2007, went 2-9 with a 6.45 ERA with the Astros. Even though he had less than twice the amount of walks in over three times the amount of innings, his WHIP was still very high as it was about 1.57 through 19 games and 99 innings pitched. He also had season-ending surgery in ’07. His only year with an ERA under 4.50 came in ’06 (his contract year) with the Colorado Rockies. His record was only 9-13, but he had a 3.78 ERA and the most innings he had pitched in a season in his career with 212 IP, only the second time he had pitched 200 innings in a season. He still had control problems though, as he walked 85 and had a WHIP of about 1.39. With most teams, he probably wouldn’t have much of a shot of making the starting rotation, but with the Rangers, he can work his way in if he pitches well in Spring Training and either Matt Harrison struggles, Scott Feldman struggles, or Brandon McCarthy either struggles (which still might not kick him out of the rotation) or Brandon McCarthy gets injured again (which is very likely to happen).
Percentage chance of making the team out of Spring Training: 34.6%
Warner Madrigal: Warner made his major league debut last year, but as a pitcher, not a hitter, which he had been for almost all of his minor league career. He went 0-2 with a 4.75 ERA and one save in 36 innings pitched, although he seemed to pitch much better than his ERA shows. He probably will make the team as a middle reliever out of Spring Training.
Percentage: 75.2%
Doug Mathis: Doug made his major league debut last year, and although his ERA was 6.85, he went 2-1 and only had two bad games. He had four relief appearances and four starts before a season-ending injury. He allowed nine runs in 2.1 innings pitched at the Twins in his first career start, but he didn’t even pitch that bad as only six of the nine runs were earned and there was a lot of luck going the Twins way. as there were a couple of perfect pitches where a Twin flung his bat out and somehow slapped the ball down the line, there were plenty of bloopers, and there were errors. He then dominated the Indians in his next game, going six innings and allowing only one run. Then, after struggling against Cleveland in his next game, he pitched well against the Rays, allowing 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched. He has a shot at making the Opening Day rotation and the bullpen and, due to his flexibility, I think he will make the team if he is healthy.
Percentage: 64.5%
Brandon McCarthy: Brandon McCarthy was once again injured for much of the season in 2008. He only pitched 22 innings in five games and went 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA and had 10 strikeouts and 8 walks. He struggled in 2007 when he was healthy, as he went 5-10 with a 4.87 ERA in 101.2 innings pitched. In 2007, his WHIP was 1.56. He played with the White Sox for two years before the Danks trade and went 4-7 with a 4.68 ERA in 2006 and went 3-2 with a 4.03 ERA in 2005. This year, if he stays healthy, he could actually be in a position for the first time in his career where he can pitch himself out of a job if someone else pitches himself into a job.
Percentage: 72.2% (this percentage doesn’t include injuries, so this is if he doesn’t get injured)
Luis Mendoza: In 2008, (when he wasn’t injured) Mendoza struggled as he went 3-8 with an 8.67 ERA in 63.1 innings pitched. His WHIP was also terrible, at 1.93. He will probably need to pitch his way onto the team after his terrible year last year, and I don’t think that he will do that.
Percentage: 43.3%
Kevin Millwood: Kevin has struggled since signing with the Rangers. He hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in his three years with the team and he has allowed more hits than innings pitched all three years. In 2006, he had his best year as a Ranger as he went 16-12 with a 4.52 ERA and threw over 200 innings (215) while striking out 157 batters. In 2007, he went 10-14 with a 5.16 ERA and threw only 172.2 innings with 123 strike outs and 67 walks. In 2008, he went 9-10 with a 5.07 ERA in only 168.2 innings pitched, and still gave up 220 hits and 18 homers. Even if he still had options, his $10 million salary gives him a spot on the team.
Percentage: 100%
Guillermo Moscoso: In 2008, he had a 5-4 record between the Lakeland Flying Tigers and the Erie SeaWolves. With High-A Lakeland he had a 2.42 ERA and with Double-A Erie he had a 3.12 ERA. He struck out 122 batters and walked only 21 in 86.2 innings total. He will probably start the year off at either Frisco or Oklahoma City.
Percentage: 4.4%
Dustin Nippert: Dustin went 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA in 71.2 innings pitched in his first year with the Rangers. He pitched in 20 games and started in 6 of those 20. With the Diamondbacks in 2007, he went 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA and was used only as a reliever. He pitched much better as a starter than a reliever, as he had a 5.63 ERA as a starter and a 7.03 ERA as a reliever in 2008. He really struggled with men in scoring position last year with a 16.50 ERA and had a 22.18 ERA with runners in scoring position with two outs. I think that he will make the team because he can be both a starter and a reliever.
Percentage: 51.2%
Vicente Padilla: Vicente has spent three years with the team and this will probably be his last. Last year he led the team in wins with 14 and only lost 8, but he had a 4.74 ERA and only pitched 171 innings. He also walked 65 batters, hit 15 batters, and allowed 185 hits. In 2007, he went 6-10 with 5.76 ERA in only 120.1 innings pitched and in 2006 he went 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA. He will make the team out of Spring Training unless he gets traded or something.
Percentage: 100%
Omar Poveda: Last year Omar spent the whole year at High-A Bakersfield and went 4-4 with a 4.47 ERA in 90.2 innings pitched. His WHIP was 1.35, but there is almost no chance of him making the team out of Spring Training. He was placed on the 40-man roster during the off-season in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft but he needs more development time in the minors.
Percentage: 2.2%
Elizardo Ramirez: Last year was Elizardo’s first year in the Rangers organization. He only pitched 2.2 innings in the majors and still allowed 9 earned runs. In Oklahoma City, he went 10-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 160 innings pitched. He has a chance of making the bullpen if he impresses in Spring Training, but he probably won’t. He’s more likely to be an insurance policy at triple-A.
Percentage: 29.5%
Josh Rupe: Even though his ERA was 5.14 last year, it seemed like he did much better than that, even though he had a 12.90 ERA with runners in scoring position. His record was 3-1 in 89.1 innings pitched and 46 and only struck out 53. He will probably make the team out of Spring Training if he pitches well.
Percentage: 62.4%
Joseph Torres: Joe Torres went 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA in Double-A Birmingham last year in 50.1 innings pitched. He walked 31 batters, but only allowed 29 hits. He probably won’t make the team out of Spring Training this year, if he makes the team at all.
Percentage: 3.6%
Derrick Turnbow: Derrick Turnbow signed a minor league deal with the Rangers this offseason. He is a former closer for the Milwaukee Brewers. 2005 was his first season with Milwaukee and he went 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 39 saves in 67.1 innings pitched. In 2006, he struggled, going 4-9 with a 6.87 ERA and 24 saves in 56.1 innings pitched. He no longer had the closer role in 2007 and he went 4-5 with a 4.63 ERA in 68 innings pitched. Last year he only pitched 6.1 innings for the Brewers and went 0-1 with a 15.63 ERA. He will definitely have to earn his way onto the team, but he can do that.
Percentage: 41.4%
CJ Wilson: CJ has four years of major league experience (2005-2008). In 2005, he went 1-7 with a 6.94 ERA in 48 innings pitched. In 2006, he went 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA in 44.1 innings pitched. 2007 was his best year as he had a 3.03 ERA and 12 saves with a 2-1 record. Last year, he broke camp as the team’s closer but struggled, going 2-2 with a 6.02 ERA and 24 saves in 46.1 innings pitched before season-ending elbow surgery. CJ has a lot of talent and seems to have recovered well from his surgery. He will probably make the team but not as the closer.
Percentage: 92.9%
Kris Benson: Kris started his major league career in Pittsburgh in 1999 and threw almost 200 innings with a 4.07 ERA in his rookie season. In 2000, he threw 217.2 innings and had a 3.85 ERA. 2002 was his first year with a winning record, as he went 9-6 with a 4.70 ERA. He threw only 105 innings in 2003. In 2004, he went to the Mets halfway through the season and had a 4.31 ERA in 200.1 innings between Pittsburgh and New York. After a 10-8 season in 2005, Kris went to Baltimore in 2006 and went 11-12 with a 4.82 ERA in 183 innings pitched. He has not pitched in the majors in either of his past two seasons due to injuries. The Rangers signed him to a minor league deal last week and Kris is trying to prove that he’s fully healthy. He has a chance to break the starting rotation with a great spring training but is more likely to start at triple-A. He can become a free agent in May if not added to the team by then.
Percentage: 36.4%
Projected Opening Day Pitching Roster:
Starter #1: Kevin Millwood
Starter #2: Vicente Padilla
Starter #3: Matt Harrison
Starter #4: Scott Feldman
Starter #5: Brandon McCarthy
Long Reliever: Dustin Nippert
Long Reliever/Middle Reliever: Doug Mathis
Long Reliever/Middle Reliever: Josh Rupe
Middle Reliever: CJ Wilson
Middle Reliever: Warner Madrigal
Set-up Man: Eddie Guardado
Closer: Frankie Francisco
Next in line:
Brendan Donnelly
Luis Mendoza
Willie Eyre
Derrick Turnbow
Kris Benson
Jason Jennings
Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think will be the Rangers closer?
Frankie Francisco – 67%
Derrick Turnbow – 10%
CJ Wilson – 10%
Eddie Guardado – 7%
Other – 3%
Warner Madrigal – 0%
Come back next week for the Spring Training Infielders Analysis.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Spring Training Pitchers Analysis Part 1
The Rangers will be opening Spring Training with 31 pitchers in major league camp as long as no more moves are made. This week, I analyzed half of the pitchers in big league camp and gave their chances of making the team at the end of Spring Training. I'll finish the pitcher analysis next week.
John Bannister: In 2008, John went 4-6 with a 4.14 ERA in Bakersfield and went 1-0 with a 4.56 ERA in Frisco. In his minor league career he is 22-30 with a 4.59 ERA. But improved control after being switched to the bullpen plus a good performance in the Arizona Fall League resulted in John being added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. He probably will not make the team out of Spring Training.
Percentage of making the team out of Spring Training: 5.4%
Joaquin Benoit: After a great year in 2007, Benoit struggled in 2008 with a 5.00 ERA in 45 innings. His ERA jumped up 2.15 points from 2007 when it was 2.85. He had 35 walks and only 43 strikeouts and averaged 7 walks per 9 innings. Also he blew three saves in only four opportunities. He only had 0.55 ground outs for every fly out, .39 lower than 2007 when it was 0.94. Benoit will not make the team out of spring training, due to a torn rotator cuff that may keep him out for the year.
Percentage: 0%
Casey Daigle: Casey is in camp on a non-roster invitation. Casey made his major league debut in 2004 with Arizona and really struggled. He went 2-3 with a 7.16 ERA with 27 walks and only 17 strikeouts in 49 innings pitched. He didn’t get another shot until 2006 when he went 0-0 with a 3.65 ERA with 6 walks and 7 strikeouts in 12.1 innings pitched. He has been in Triple-A ever since then. Last year, Casey went 1-5 with a 3.78 ERA in 69 innings pitched for Rochester. He is a guy who might have a chance at the bullpen and might make a few spot starts.
Percentage: 21.3%
Thomas Diamond: Thomas was one of the Rangers best prospects until he had to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss all of 2007. Last year Thomas threw 53.2 innings for Frisco and went 3-3 with a 6.20 ERA and 37 walks as he struggled with his control. This year will probably be another year in the minors to try and get fully healthy.
Percentage: 1.2%
Brendan Donnelly: Brendan is in camp on a non-roster invitation. Brendan Donnelly was a very strong reliever all the way up to last year, in a career that has spanned 7 major league seasons with 3 teams. He had an ERA 3.00 or lower from ’02-’04 (2.17, 1.58, and 3.00) with the Angels and he pitched 40 or more innings in all three of those years. Then he had a 3.72 ERA in ’05, a 3.94 ERA in ’06, and a 3.05 ERA in ’07 (after moving to Boston). But he struggled last year with Cleveland, only getting 13.2 major league innings, and having a 8.56 ERA with 10 walks and 8 strikeouts in those innings. If he can get back to his old form, he should make the team out of Spring Training.
Percentage: 46.6%
Willie Eyre: Willie has pitched in the majors for two seasons in his career. In 2006, he went 1-0 with a 5.31 ERA for the Twins in 59.1 innings pitched. Then in 2007, he went 4-6 with a 5.16 ERA for the Rangers in 68 innings pitched, although it seemed like he did a lot better than the stats show. He was injured all of last season and might still be recovering this year, though hopefully not. I think that if he pitches well in Spring Training and shows himself to be healthy, he will make the team.
Percentage: 41.2%
Scott Feldman: Last year the Rangers converted Scott Feldman from a reliever into a starter and it was a success. Even though he only went 6-8 with a 5.29 ERA in 151.1 innings pitched, he was the most consistent starter on the team, in my opinion, and had many quality starts. He had 1.22 ground outs per fly out and got the other team to hit into 24 double plays. I think that if he doesn’t make it into the starting rotation, they will find some way to work him into the bullpen.
Percentage: 84.9%
Neftali Feliz: Last year Neftali Feliz dominated the minor leagues, earning him his first invitation to major league camp (as a non-roster invitee). He went 6-3 with a 2.53 ERA with 106 strikeouts and only 28 walks in 82 innings pitched in Clinton before being called up to Frisco. He went 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA with 47 strikeouts and 23 walks in 45.1 innings pitched at Frisco while hitting 102 MPH on the radar gun at times. He had a great year, but the Rangers don’t want rush him up to the majors, so he probably will not make the team out of Spring Training.
Percentage: 2.3%
Frank Francisco: Frankie had a very good year last year as he had a 3.13 ERA with 83 strikeouts and 26 walks in 63.1 innings pitched. He also had 5 saves. In 2007 he struggled, though, as he had a 4.55 ERA. After his great year last year, the question isn’t so much whether or not he makes the team as it is whether he will leave camp as the team’s closer.
Percentage: 98.7%
Kason Gabbard: Kason hasn’t pitched all too well in his career. In 2007, he went 6-1, but had a 4.65 ERA, pretty high for his good record. In 2008, he went 2-3 with a 4.82 and had terrible control, throwing 39 walks and getting only 33 strikeouts. Then he got injured, and he just threw off the mound for the first time since then on February 12th. The Rangers will probably want him to continue recovering into the regular season and so he will probably not make the team out of Spring Training.
Percentage: 12.1%
Brian Gordon: Last year Brian Gordon started out the year in Frisco, going 2-0 and allowed no earned runs in 22 innings before being called up to Oklahoma City. He went 4-5 with a 4.56 ERA with 51 strikeouts and 15 walks in 71 innings. He then made his major league debut and pitched 4 innings and allowed one run. He probably will not make the team seeing as how he’s a non-roster invite but he’s a good candidate to be called up later in the season.
Percentage: 14.4%
Eddie Guardado: Eddie has had a very good career. He was a dominant closer in 2002, 2003, and 2005, getting at least 35 saves in each of those years. Last year he also played well, with a 4.15 ERA between Texas and Minnesota in 56.1 innings total. He is a very good pitcher and will make the team.
Percentage: 97.1%
Matt Harrison: In 2008, Matt made his major league debut. He went 9-3 with a 5.49 ERA in 83.2 innings pitched. He tied for the second most wins on the team, even though he only pitched in the majors for three months. He showed signs of brilliance as he threw some gems, but just got completely obliterated in other starts. He probably will make the team as a starter.
Percentage: 74.1%
Derek Holland: Derek Holland is one of the best prospects in all of baseball and has pitched really well. Last year he went 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA in 93.2 innings pitched with Clinton, 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in 31 innings pitched in Bakersfield, and 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA in 26 innings pitched in Frisco. He was rewarded with his first invitation to big league camp. Even though he played so well last year, he will probably not make the team out of Spring Training this year, as they’ll want to give him a little more development time.
Percentage: 4.3%
Tommy Hunter: Tommy made his major league debut last year in his first full season of professional baseball. He pitched very well in all three stops he made in the minors. He went 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 58.1 innings pitched with Bakersfield, 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in 52.1 innings pitched with Frisco, and 4-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 53 innings pitched with Oklahoma City. In the majors he only pitched 11 innings and he struggled mightily in those innings. He went 0-1 with a 16.36 ERA in three games. He probably will not make the team out of Spring Training but is a good candidate for call-up later in the season.
Percentage: 21.4%
Eric Hurley: Eric has a shoulder injury that will keep him out for the season.
Percentage: 0%
Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think will be the Rangers 4th outfielder?
Marlon Byrd – 42%
Andruw Jones – 23%
David Murphy – 9%
Frank Catalanotto – 9%
Greg Golson – 4%
Nelson Cruz – 4%
Brandon Boggs – 4%
Julio Borbon – 0%
Come back next week for the other half of the Spring Training pitchers.
John Bannister: In 2008, John went 4-6 with a 4.14 ERA in Bakersfield and went 1-0 with a 4.56 ERA in Frisco. In his minor league career he is 22-30 with a 4.59 ERA. But improved control after being switched to the bullpen plus a good performance in the Arizona Fall League resulted in John being added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. He probably will not make the team out of Spring Training.
Percentage of making the team out of Spring Training: 5.4%
Joaquin Benoit: After a great year in 2007, Benoit struggled in 2008 with a 5.00 ERA in 45 innings. His ERA jumped up 2.15 points from 2007 when it was 2.85. He had 35 walks and only 43 strikeouts and averaged 7 walks per 9 innings. Also he blew three saves in only four opportunities. He only had 0.55 ground outs for every fly out, .39 lower than 2007 when it was 0.94. Benoit will not make the team out of spring training, due to a torn rotator cuff that may keep him out for the year.
Percentage: 0%
Casey Daigle: Casey is in camp on a non-roster invitation. Casey made his major league debut in 2004 with Arizona and really struggled. He went 2-3 with a 7.16 ERA with 27 walks and only 17 strikeouts in 49 innings pitched. He didn’t get another shot until 2006 when he went 0-0 with a 3.65 ERA with 6 walks and 7 strikeouts in 12.1 innings pitched. He has been in Triple-A ever since then. Last year, Casey went 1-5 with a 3.78 ERA in 69 innings pitched for Rochester. He is a guy who might have a chance at the bullpen and might make a few spot starts.
Percentage: 21.3%
Thomas Diamond: Thomas was one of the Rangers best prospects until he had to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss all of 2007. Last year Thomas threw 53.2 innings for Frisco and went 3-3 with a 6.20 ERA and 37 walks as he struggled with his control. This year will probably be another year in the minors to try and get fully healthy.
Percentage: 1.2%
Brendan Donnelly: Brendan is in camp on a non-roster invitation. Brendan Donnelly was a very strong reliever all the way up to last year, in a career that has spanned 7 major league seasons with 3 teams. He had an ERA 3.00 or lower from ’02-’04 (2.17, 1.58, and 3.00) with the Angels and he pitched 40 or more innings in all three of those years. Then he had a 3.72 ERA in ’05, a 3.94 ERA in ’06, and a 3.05 ERA in ’07 (after moving to Boston). But he struggled last year with Cleveland, only getting 13.2 major league innings, and having a 8.56 ERA with 10 walks and 8 strikeouts in those innings. If he can get back to his old form, he should make the team out of Spring Training.
Percentage: 46.6%
Willie Eyre: Willie has pitched in the majors for two seasons in his career. In 2006, he went 1-0 with a 5.31 ERA for the Twins in 59.1 innings pitched. Then in 2007, he went 4-6 with a 5.16 ERA for the Rangers in 68 innings pitched, although it seemed like he did a lot better than the stats show. He was injured all of last season and might still be recovering this year, though hopefully not. I think that if he pitches well in Spring Training and shows himself to be healthy, he will make the team.
Percentage: 41.2%
Scott Feldman: Last year the Rangers converted Scott Feldman from a reliever into a starter and it was a success. Even though he only went 6-8 with a 5.29 ERA in 151.1 innings pitched, he was the most consistent starter on the team, in my opinion, and had many quality starts. He had 1.22 ground outs per fly out and got the other team to hit into 24 double plays. I think that if he doesn’t make it into the starting rotation, they will find some way to work him into the bullpen.
Percentage: 84.9%
Neftali Feliz: Last year Neftali Feliz dominated the minor leagues, earning him his first invitation to major league camp (as a non-roster invitee). He went 6-3 with a 2.53 ERA with 106 strikeouts and only 28 walks in 82 innings pitched in Clinton before being called up to Frisco. He went 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA with 47 strikeouts and 23 walks in 45.1 innings pitched at Frisco while hitting 102 MPH on the radar gun at times. He had a great year, but the Rangers don’t want rush him up to the majors, so he probably will not make the team out of Spring Training.
Percentage: 2.3%
Frank Francisco: Frankie had a very good year last year as he had a 3.13 ERA with 83 strikeouts and 26 walks in 63.1 innings pitched. He also had 5 saves. In 2007 he struggled, though, as he had a 4.55 ERA. After his great year last year, the question isn’t so much whether or not he makes the team as it is whether he will leave camp as the team’s closer.
Percentage: 98.7%
Kason Gabbard: Kason hasn’t pitched all too well in his career. In 2007, he went 6-1, but had a 4.65 ERA, pretty high for his good record. In 2008, he went 2-3 with a 4.82 and had terrible control, throwing 39 walks and getting only 33 strikeouts. Then he got injured, and he just threw off the mound for the first time since then on February 12th. The Rangers will probably want him to continue recovering into the regular season and so he will probably not make the team out of Spring Training.
Percentage: 12.1%
Brian Gordon: Last year Brian Gordon started out the year in Frisco, going 2-0 and allowed no earned runs in 22 innings before being called up to Oklahoma City. He went 4-5 with a 4.56 ERA with 51 strikeouts and 15 walks in 71 innings. He then made his major league debut and pitched 4 innings and allowed one run. He probably will not make the team seeing as how he’s a non-roster invite but he’s a good candidate to be called up later in the season.
Percentage: 14.4%
Eddie Guardado: Eddie has had a very good career. He was a dominant closer in 2002, 2003, and 2005, getting at least 35 saves in each of those years. Last year he also played well, with a 4.15 ERA between Texas and Minnesota in 56.1 innings total. He is a very good pitcher and will make the team.
Percentage: 97.1%
Matt Harrison: In 2008, Matt made his major league debut. He went 9-3 with a 5.49 ERA in 83.2 innings pitched. He tied for the second most wins on the team, even though he only pitched in the majors for three months. He showed signs of brilliance as he threw some gems, but just got completely obliterated in other starts. He probably will make the team as a starter.
Percentage: 74.1%
Derek Holland: Derek Holland is one of the best prospects in all of baseball and has pitched really well. Last year he went 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA in 93.2 innings pitched with Clinton, 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in 31 innings pitched in Bakersfield, and 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA in 26 innings pitched in Frisco. He was rewarded with his first invitation to big league camp. Even though he played so well last year, he will probably not make the team out of Spring Training this year, as they’ll want to give him a little more development time.
Percentage: 4.3%
Tommy Hunter: Tommy made his major league debut last year in his first full season of professional baseball. He pitched very well in all three stops he made in the minors. He went 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 58.1 innings pitched with Bakersfield, 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in 52.1 innings pitched with Frisco, and 4-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 53 innings pitched with Oklahoma City. In the majors he only pitched 11 innings and he struggled mightily in those innings. He went 0-1 with a 16.36 ERA in three games. He probably will not make the team out of Spring Training but is a good candidate for call-up later in the season.
Percentage: 21.4%
Eric Hurley: Eric has a shoulder injury that will keep him out for the season.
Percentage: 0%
Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think will be the Rangers 4th outfielder?
Marlon Byrd – 42%
Andruw Jones – 23%
David Murphy – 9%
Frank Catalanotto – 9%
Greg Golson – 4%
Nelson Cruz – 4%
Brandon Boggs – 4%
Julio Borbon – 0%
Come back next week for the other half of the Spring Training pitchers.
Sunday, February 08, 2009
Spring Training Outfielders Analysis
The Rangers will be opening Spring Training with 9 outfielders in major league camp as long as no more moves are made. I did an analysis of all the outfielders in big league camp, gave their chances of making the team at the end of Spring Training, and predicted the outfield roster.
Outfielders:
Brandon Boggs: Brandon made his major league debut last year and played pretty well. He was called up to the majors after hitting .309 through 18 games in Oklahoma City. When he first got called up he was hot. He ended up hitting .226 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI’s in the majors. Even though his batting average was low he had plenty of walks as his OBP was .333 even with that low batting average. He was also great defensively and made a few great throws from the outfield to cut someone off at the plate. Unfortunately, the Rangers have a lot of candidates for the outfield and Boggs is one of the ones with options, so even though I think that he is better than both Byrd and Catalanotto he is probably the odd man out just because of his options.
Percentage of making the team out of Spring Training: 43.2%
Julio Borbon: This is probably a year for Julio to get prepared to be in the majors next year. It will only be his third year in the minors in 2009. Last year Borbon hit .306 with two home runs and 36 RBI’s in 291 AB’s at High-A Bakersfield and he hit .337 with five home runs and 22 RBI’s in 255 AB’s at Double-A Frisco. Julio didn’t strikeout or walk very much last year as he only had 29 total walks throughout the whole season and only 62 strikeouts throughout the whole season.
Percentage: 1.4%
Marlon Byrd: Marlon has played with the Rangers for two years now and has played pretty well in both of them. Last year Marlon hit .298 with 10 HR’s and 53 RBI’s. In 2007, he hit .307 with 10 HR’s and 70 RBI’s. His OBP has been above .350 both years. But Marlon struggled with runners in scoring position last year as he only hit .241 after hitting .315 with runners in scoring position in ’07. After getting a one-year deal for $3 million he is pretty much on the team this year, probably as a 4th outfielder.
Percentage: 93.6%
Frank Catalanotto: Frank has not played well since coming back to the Rangers in ’07. He hit .300 in 2006 with Toronto, but then only .260 with the Rangers in ’07. He only hit .274 with 2 HR’s and 21 RBI’s in 248 AB’s last year. Frank hit .254 at home and .295 on the road last year even though the Rangers have a hitter’s ballpark. Also, he hit .280 before the All-Star break and .258 after the All-Star break, so he had a very up-and-down season. Even though Boggs deserves a spot on the roster more than Frank, Frank makes $4 million a year so he probably gets the spot.
Percentage: 79.8%
Nelson Cruz: Nelson had a great year last year after struggling in both ’06 and ’07. He hit .342 with 37 HR’s and 99 RBI’s in just 383 triple-A AB’s. He got called up in August after tearing up the minors and dominated the majors, too. In just 115 AB’s he hit .330 with 7 HR’s and 26 RBI’s. Since he has no options left and he played so well in August and September for the Rangers last year, he will pretty much be on the Opening Day roster as long as he plays well in Spring Training.
Percentage: 89.2%
Greg Golson: Last year Golson spent almost all of his time in double-A ball for the Phillies. He hit .282 with 13 HR’s and 60 RBI’s. His 23 stolen bases tied for sixth in the Eastern League but he also struck out the 3rd most times in the league with 130 K’s in 460 plate appearances. That means that he struck out in 28% of his plate appearances while he only walked in 7% of his plate appearances which isn’t very good. Greg will probably not make the team this year.
Percentage: 14.5%
Josh Hamilton: Josh was the AL RBI leader last year, his first year with the Rangers and only the second year of his career. He had 130 RBI’s on the year. He hit .304 with 32 HR’s (67 if you count the Home Run Derby) as well. He played in 156 of the 162 games and had 331 total bases in those games. He has hit .311 with runners in scoring position. He is the face of the 2009 team and there is no way he doesn’t make the team.
Percentage: 100%
Andruw Jones: The Rangers will reportedly be announcing a non-roster deal with Jones later this week, so I’m including him in this analysis. Andruw was great until 2007. He hit 25 or more home runs each year from 1998 all the way through 2007 and 80 or more RBI’s in all of those years. He led the NL with 51 HR’s and 128 RBI’s in 2005 and then hit 41 HR’s with 129 RBI’s in 2006. He had Gold Gloves in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007. In 2007, Andruw hit 26 HR’s with 94 RBI’s but only had a .222 AVG and a .311 OBP. Then he just plummeted last year as he only had 209 AB’s for the Dodgers and in those at-bats he hit only .158 with 3 HR’s and 14 RBI’s. He was still a good fielder, though, as he had a .993 fielding percentage. He has a chance to make the team but would have to have a very good Spring Training to do so. This move (signing Jones to a non-roster deal) could also help if Hank Blalock is traded, because now Jones could take over the DH spot if necessary.
Percentage: 41.2%
David Murphy: David had a great year last year as he hit .275 with 14 HR’s and 74 RBI’s before getting injured in August. He hits much better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers, as he hit .282 against righties and only .258 against southpaws. He definitely deserves the starting role and is almost sure to get a spot on the team. The only thing that might cause that to not happen is if his injury affects his play somehow.
Percentage: 98.9%
Predicted outfield roster:
Center Field: Josh Hamilton
Right Field: Nelson Cruz
Left Field vs. Righties: David Murphy
Left Field vs. Lefties: Marlon Byrd
Back-up Outfielder: Frank Catalanotto
Next in line:
Brandon Boggs
Andruw Jones
Results of last week’s poll (which means nothing now):
If the Rangers sign Ben Sheets, where do you think they’ll finish in the division in 2009?
1st – 26%
2nd – 58%
3rd – 5%
4th – 8%
Come back next week for the analysis of the pitchers on the major league Spring Training roster, with my predictions for who will make the team.
Outfielders:
Brandon Boggs: Brandon made his major league debut last year and played pretty well. He was called up to the majors after hitting .309 through 18 games in Oklahoma City. When he first got called up he was hot. He ended up hitting .226 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI’s in the majors. Even though his batting average was low he had plenty of walks as his OBP was .333 even with that low batting average. He was also great defensively and made a few great throws from the outfield to cut someone off at the plate. Unfortunately, the Rangers have a lot of candidates for the outfield and Boggs is one of the ones with options, so even though I think that he is better than both Byrd and Catalanotto he is probably the odd man out just because of his options.
Percentage of making the team out of Spring Training: 43.2%
Julio Borbon: This is probably a year for Julio to get prepared to be in the majors next year. It will only be his third year in the minors in 2009. Last year Borbon hit .306 with two home runs and 36 RBI’s in 291 AB’s at High-A Bakersfield and he hit .337 with five home runs and 22 RBI’s in 255 AB’s at Double-A Frisco. Julio didn’t strikeout or walk very much last year as he only had 29 total walks throughout the whole season and only 62 strikeouts throughout the whole season.
Percentage: 1.4%
Marlon Byrd: Marlon has played with the Rangers for two years now and has played pretty well in both of them. Last year Marlon hit .298 with 10 HR’s and 53 RBI’s. In 2007, he hit .307 with 10 HR’s and 70 RBI’s. His OBP has been above .350 both years. But Marlon struggled with runners in scoring position last year as he only hit .241 after hitting .315 with runners in scoring position in ’07. After getting a one-year deal for $3 million he is pretty much on the team this year, probably as a 4th outfielder.
Percentage: 93.6%
Frank Catalanotto: Frank has not played well since coming back to the Rangers in ’07. He hit .300 in 2006 with Toronto, but then only .260 with the Rangers in ’07. He only hit .274 with 2 HR’s and 21 RBI’s in 248 AB’s last year. Frank hit .254 at home and .295 on the road last year even though the Rangers have a hitter’s ballpark. Also, he hit .280 before the All-Star break and .258 after the All-Star break, so he had a very up-and-down season. Even though Boggs deserves a spot on the roster more than Frank, Frank makes $4 million a year so he probably gets the spot.
Percentage: 79.8%
Nelson Cruz: Nelson had a great year last year after struggling in both ’06 and ’07. He hit .342 with 37 HR’s and 99 RBI’s in just 383 triple-A AB’s. He got called up in August after tearing up the minors and dominated the majors, too. In just 115 AB’s he hit .330 with 7 HR’s and 26 RBI’s. Since he has no options left and he played so well in August and September for the Rangers last year, he will pretty much be on the Opening Day roster as long as he plays well in Spring Training.
Percentage: 89.2%
Greg Golson: Last year Golson spent almost all of his time in double-A ball for the Phillies. He hit .282 with 13 HR’s and 60 RBI’s. His 23 stolen bases tied for sixth in the Eastern League but he also struck out the 3rd most times in the league with 130 K’s in 460 plate appearances. That means that he struck out in 28% of his plate appearances while he only walked in 7% of his plate appearances which isn’t very good. Greg will probably not make the team this year.
Percentage: 14.5%
Josh Hamilton: Josh was the AL RBI leader last year, his first year with the Rangers and only the second year of his career. He had 130 RBI’s on the year. He hit .304 with 32 HR’s (67 if you count the Home Run Derby) as well. He played in 156 of the 162 games and had 331 total bases in those games. He has hit .311 with runners in scoring position. He is the face of the 2009 team and there is no way he doesn’t make the team.
Percentage: 100%
Andruw Jones: The Rangers will reportedly be announcing a non-roster deal with Jones later this week, so I’m including him in this analysis. Andruw was great until 2007. He hit 25 or more home runs each year from 1998 all the way through 2007 and 80 or more RBI’s in all of those years. He led the NL with 51 HR’s and 128 RBI’s in 2005 and then hit 41 HR’s with 129 RBI’s in 2006. He had Gold Gloves in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007. In 2007, Andruw hit 26 HR’s with 94 RBI’s but only had a .222 AVG and a .311 OBP. Then he just plummeted last year as he only had 209 AB’s for the Dodgers and in those at-bats he hit only .158 with 3 HR’s and 14 RBI’s. He was still a good fielder, though, as he had a .993 fielding percentage. He has a chance to make the team but would have to have a very good Spring Training to do so. This move (signing Jones to a non-roster deal) could also help if Hank Blalock is traded, because now Jones could take over the DH spot if necessary.
Percentage: 41.2%
David Murphy: David had a great year last year as he hit .275 with 14 HR’s and 74 RBI’s before getting injured in August. He hits much better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers, as he hit .282 against righties and only .258 against southpaws. He definitely deserves the starting role and is almost sure to get a spot on the team. The only thing that might cause that to not happen is if his injury affects his play somehow.
Percentage: 98.9%
Predicted outfield roster:
Center Field: Josh Hamilton
Right Field: Nelson Cruz
Left Field vs. Righties: David Murphy
Left Field vs. Lefties: Marlon Byrd
Back-up Outfielder: Frank Catalanotto
Next in line:
Brandon Boggs
Andruw Jones
Results of last week’s poll (which means nothing now):
If the Rangers sign Ben Sheets, where do you think they’ll finish in the division in 2009?
1st – 26%
2nd – 58%
3rd – 5%
4th – 8%
Come back next week for the analysis of the pitchers on the major league Spring Training roster, with my predictions for who will make the team.
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