Sunday, October 28, 2007

Jon Daniels Trade Analysis Part 2 and GM Comparison

This is an updated analysis of the trades Jon Daniels has made as Rangers GM. I’ll be reviewing all trades he made after September 1, 2006 (see my 12/9/06 blog for analysis of his trades before then). Each trade will be scored a win, loss, or tie. At the end, I’ll compare Jon’s record so far to John Hart’s and Doug Melvin’s.

21. 12-7-06 Acquired minor league C Salomon Manriquez from Colorado in exchange for cash considerations.

Win – Any time you get a decent player for cash (which isn’t even promised in this deal), it’s a win. Manriquez played for Frisco this year, batting .275 with 16 homers and 53 RBI. He should get an invitation to major league spring training again next year.

Record: 10-4-7

22. 12-23-06 Acquired RHP Brandon McCarthy and OF David Paisano from the White Sox in exchange for LHP John Danks, RHP Nick Masset and RHP Jacob Rasner.

Win - John Danks has great potential, but this year had a 6-13 record and a 5.50 ERA for the White Sox. He only pitched 139 innings. Nick Masset had a 2-3 record and a 7.09 ERA in 39.1 innings this year for the White Sox, but he also has good potential. Jacob Rasner for the single-A Kannapolis Intimidators had a 7-11 record with a 6.83 ERA in 139.2 innings pitched, and does not have much potential. None of the players we traded away had very good years, the lowest ERA being 5.50. But Paisano played awful for the Lumberkings (single-A), batting .203 with 3 HR and 20 RBI’s in 306 at-bats. He also struck-out 85 times. His only good stat was 20 stolen bases. McCarthy started the season off terribly and ended the season with a blister on his middle finger, but in the 101.2 innings he did pitch, he managed to lower his ERA to 4.87 and pick up five wins with ten losses. It’s still too early to really tell, but based on last year’s performances; I’d say that it’s barely a win.

Record: 11-4-7

23. 1-12-07 Acquired C Chris Stewart from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP John Lujan.

Win – Chris Stewart isn’t a great batter, as for the Rangers last year he had a .300 OBP and a .243 AVG and for the Redhawks (triple-A) he had a .294 OBP and a .242 AVG. But he fields very well, as with the Rangers last year he threw out 50% of base-stealers and made 2 errors in 105.1 innings caught. He had a .981 fielding percentage. John doesn’t have that much potential but this year’s stats were very good. John had a 3.73 ERA with 11 saves and 90 strike-outs in 82 innings.

Record: 12-4-7

24. 4-19-07 Traded LHP Daniel Haigwood to Boston for RHP Scott Shoemaker and cash considerations.

Win - Daniel Haigwood struggled with the Red Sox, with a 4-5 record and a 5.31 ERA between Pawtucket (triple-A) and Portland (double-A). Scott Shoemaker went 7-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 111.2 innings pitched between Portland (double-A), Bakersfield (high-A), Oklahoma (triple-A), and Frisco (double-A).

Record: 13-4-7

25. 7-27-07 Traded OF Kenny Lofton to the Indians for nonroster C Max Ramirez

Win – Kenny Lofton’s contract was expiring after this year anyway and Max Ramirez had good stats, batting .304 with 16 HR and 82 RBI between Kinston (high-A) and Bakersfield (high-A). Ramirez will be in the mix for the Rangers’ catcher of the future.

Record: 14-4-7

26. 7-31-07 Acquired C/1B Jarrod Saltalamacchia, nonroster SS Elvis Andrus, nonroster LHP Matt Harrison, nonroster LHP Beau Jones and nonroster RHP Neftali Feliz from the Braves in exchange for 1B Mark Teixeira and LHP Ron Mahay

Win - Even though Mark is a great player and has done great for the Rangers, he was going to be gone after next year and so they had to trade him. Ron Mahay had been with the Rangers since 2003, with ERA’s of 3.18, 2.55, 6.81, 3.95, and 2.77. Jarrod Saltalamacchia was ranked the 36th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America at the beginning of the year and was also ranked the best prospect in the NL East. Elvis Andrus only hit .257 this year but he probably is the best fielder in all of the Rangers’ minor league system. Elvis was also ranked the 65th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America at the beginning of the year. This year Harrison was 5-7 with a 3.39 ERA in 116.2 IP and last year he was 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA in 158.2 IP. Matt was ranked the 90th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America at the beginning of the year. Beau Jones has a good fastball and a very good curveball but awful control as he has walked 121 batters over the last two years. Neftali was 2-2 with a 2.55 ERA in 42.1 innings this year. But he also has 55 strike-outs. Neftali was ranked the 14th best prospect in all of the Rangers minor league system by Baseball America. This was a great trade because we got some top prospects in exchange for players that weren’t going to be with us much longer.

Record: 15-4-7

27. 7-31-07 Acquired LHP Kason Gabbard, OF David Murphy and nonroster OF Engel Beltre from the Red Sox for RHP Eric Gagne and cash

Win – Kason Gabbard is a talented lefty who should be pretty good for us. This year Gabbard went 6-1 with a 4.65 ERA between Boston and Texas. David Murphy played great, hitting .340 with 2 HR and 14 RBI. Engel Beltre has great raw potential but it is very raw. Engel hit .243 with 9 HR and 29 RBI for the year. Eric Gagne pitched awful after leaving the Rangers with a 2-2 record and a 6.75 ERA and 3 out of 3 save opportunities were blown for the Red Sox.

Record: 16-4-7

Comparison:

Doug Melvin:
Record: 15-14-16
Winning percentage: 52%
Number of trades: 45 in 7 years (average of 6.4 trades per year)
Rangers record during Melvin years: 568-548 (.509 winning percentage)

John Hart:Record: 7-11-18
Winning percentage: 39%
Number of trades: 36 in 4 years (average of 9 trades per year)
Rangers record during Hart years: 311-337 (.480 winning percentage)

Jon Daniels:
Record: 16-4-7
Winning percentage: 80%
Number of trades: 27 in 2 years (average of 13.5 trades per year)
Rangers record during Daniels years: 155-169 (.478 winning percentage)

Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think is the best player the Rangers got in 2001?
Justin Duchscherer – 84%
Rob Bell – 11%
Erasmo Ramirez – 5%
All others – 0%

Come back next week for my playoff awards.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Doug Melvin Trade Analysis Part 7

This is part 7 of an analysis of the trades Doug Melvin made while he was Rangers GM. This week I will cover 2001, his last year as GM. Each trade will be scored a win, loss, or tie. The score is based on how each player contributed to the Rangers at the major league level.

41. 5/8/01 The Montreal Expos traded Mike Johnson to the Texas Rangers for Darwin Cubillan.

Tie – After the trade Darwin Cubillan only pitched 26 and a third innings for the Expos and Mike Johnson never played for us.

Record: 13-13-15

42. 6/12/01 The Boston Red Sox traded Justin Duchscherer to the Texas Rangers for Doug Mirabelli.

Win – Justin only pitched 14 and two thirds innings for the Rangers before John Hart made the awful decision of trading him to the A’s, but 4 out of the last 5 years he has had an ERA under 3.35, including a 2.21 ERA an a 2.91 ERA. Doug Mirabelli is a good back-up catcher, averaging about 55 games a year since the trade. Doug is great defensively but he doesn’t hit very well, only hitting .250 two of the six years after the trade. This was a steal by Melvin. It’s not his fault that Hart messed it up.

Record: 14-13-15

43. 6/15/01 The Cincinnati Reds traded Rob Bell to the Texas Rangers for Ruben Mateo and Edwin Encarnacion.

Loss – Rob Bell only played 1 and a half years for us, with ERA’s of 7.18 and 6.22. Ruben Mateo has been a big disappointment, never hitting .260 in a year and never hitting 5 home runs in a year, but Edwin Encarnacion is very good. He has only played in the majors for 3 years, but this year, he hit .289 with 16 HR and 76 RBI, 25 doubles and 8 stolen bases. He also has a lot of potential.

Record: 14-14-15

44. 7/24/01 The San Francisco Giants traded Chris Magruder, Erasmo Ramirez, and Todd Ozias (minors) to the Texas Rangers for Andres Galarraga.

Win - Chris Magruder only had 29 at-bats for us and Todd Ozias never made it to the majors, but Erasmo Ramirez had three good years for us. After the trade Andres Galarraga had one more good year and one more decent year. In ’01 for the Giants he hit .288 with 7 HR and 35 RBI’s. In ’02 with the Expos he hit .260 with 9 HR and 40 RBI’s, but in ’03 as the 5th oldest player in all of baseball at the age of 43 he hit .301 with 12 HR and 42 RBI’s, playing in 110 games. But he was only here on a one-year deal and we wouldn’t have had him for those last two years anyway. So to get three good years from Ramirez instead of half a year of Galarraga is a good trade.

Record: 15-14-15

45. 8/31/01 The Texas Rangers traded Randy Velarde to the New York Yankees for players to be named later. The New York Yankees sent Randy Flores (October 12, 2001) and Rosman Garcia (October 11, 2001) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade.

Tie - This was Doug Melvin’s last trade as Rangers GM. After the trade Randy Velarde only played in 71 more games over two years, hitting .152 and .226. Randy Flores only pitched 12 innings for the Rangers with a 4.50 ERA and Rosman Garcia only pitched 53 innings for the Rangers with a 5.94 ERA.

Record: 15-14-16

Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think is the best player the Rangers got in 2000?
Michael Young – 95%
Brant Brown – 5%
All others – 0%

Come back next week for an updated analysis of Jon Daniels’ trades and a comparison between the records of Melvin, Hart, and Daniels.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Doug Melvin Trade Analysis Part 6

This is part 6 of an analysis of the trades Doug Melvin made while he was Rangers GM. This week I will cover the end of 2000. Each trade will be scored a win, loss, or tie. The score is based on how each player contributed to the Rangers at the major league level.

35. 7/19/00 - The Texas Rangers traded Esteban Loaiza to the Toronto Blue Jays for Darwin Cubillan and Michael Young.

Win – Esteban has only had 1 good year since the trade and he had no good years for the Blue Jays. His records for his three Blue Jay years were 5-7, 11-11, and 9-10, never getting 200 innings in a year as a Blue Jay. Darwin Cubillan only has 70 career innings pitched and only 17.2 as a Ranger. But Michael Young has done incredibly well for the Rangers, becoming only the third player to have 200 hits for five straight years since 1940. He has hit above .305 all 5 of those years. He has also had one 100 RBI season and two 20-90 seasons (HR-RBI). Also, he has won the batting title, has been All-Star game MVP and has set the Rangers record for most single-season hits.

Record: 13-8-14

36. 7/28/00 - The Cleveland Indians traded Ricky Ledee to the Texas Rangers for David Segui.

Loss – Ricky Ledee struggled for his 1 and a half years that he played here batting .235 and then .231 while David Segui had a couple of good platoon years after the trade. He hit .332 and then .301 with 46 RBI both years.

Record: 13-9-14

37. 8/4/00 - The Texas Rangers traded Dave Martinez to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Peter Munro (August 8, 2000) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade.

Loss – Dave had two more good years in him batting .311 and .287 but his power numbers were nothing with 2 homers both years and just about 20 RBI both years. Peter Munro never even played for the Rangers.

Record: 13-10-14

38. 11/17/00 - The Oakland Athletics traded Randy Velarde to the Texas Rangers for Aaron Harang and Ryan Cullen (minors).

Loss – Randy Velarde only played half a year for the Rangers batting .297 with 9 HR and 31 RBI’s, but half a year isn’t worth Harang. Aaron has had an ERA in the 3.00’s for three straight years, has gotten 16 straight wins for two straight years, has pitched 230 innings for two straight years, has gotten 215 strikeouts for two straight years, and his WHIP has been under 1.3 for three straight years. And he’s done all this with Cincinnati.

Record: 13-11-14

39. 12/14/00 - The Chicago White Sox traded Aaron Myette and Brian Schmack to the Texas Rangers for Royce Clayton.

Loss – Royce Clayton has had 6 decent years since the trade while Brian Schmack never played for us and Aaron Myette’s ERA for the two years he was here were 7.14 and 10.06. We needed to trade Clayton because of the A-Rod signing but we could have gotten more for him.

Record: 13-12-14

40. 12/15/00 - The Detroit Tigers traded Brandon Villafuerte and Kevin Mobley (minors) to the Texas Rangers for Matt Perisho.

Loss - Brandon Villafuerte pitched 6 games for us with a 14.29 ERA. Kevin Mobley never played in the majors while Matt Perisho had one decent year for the Marlins with a 4.40 ERA and one great year for the Marlins with a 1.93 ERA.

Record: 13-13-14

Results of last weeks poll:
Who do you think will win the World Series?
Red Sox – 52%
Rockies – 22%
Indians – 15%
D’Backs – 11%

Come back next week for my World Series prediction.

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Playoff Predictions

This week I will give my playoff predictions.

ALDS:

Indians over Yankees in 3
Red Sox over Angels in 3

ALCS:

Indians over Red Sox in 7: They both have great pitching, but all 5 of the Indians starting pitching have an ERA of less than 4.60, while only 3 of the Red Sox starting pitchers do. So far the Indians have outscored the Yankees 14-4, while the Red Sox have outscored the Angels 10-3. Also the Indians have 186 home runs and the Red Sox only have 143.

NLDS:

Rockies over Phillies in 3

D’Backs over Cubs in 3

NLCS:

D’Backs over Rockies in 6: The D’Backs have great pitching and the Rockies have great hitting. Pitching wins championships. D’Backs rotation in order have ERA’s of 3.01 (Brandon Webb), 4.93 (Livan Hernandez), 4.25 (Doug Davis), 4.30 (Micah Owings), and 5.03 (Edgar Gonzalez) while the Rockies have 4.22 (Jeff Francis), 3.43 (Franklin Morales), 4.28 (Ubaldo Jimenez), 4.94 (Josh Fogg), and 7.15 (Elmer Dessens). The Rockies postseason score is 16-8 and the D’Backs one is 16-6.

World Series:

Indians over D’Backs in 7: They both have incredible pitching, but the Indians have better hitting.

C: Victor Martinez CLE vs. Chris Snyder ARI
Winner: Victor Martinez: Victor Martinez had a .300 batting average with 25 home runs while Chris Snyder only hit .252.

1B: Ryan Garko CLE vs. Connor Jackson ARI
Winner: Ryan Garko: The averages are similar, but Garko has better power numbers.

2B: Asdrubal Cabrera CLE vs. Alberto Callapso ARI
Winner: Asdrubal Cabrera: Cabrera hit .283, while Callapso only hit .215.

3B: Casey Blake CLE vs. Chad Tracy ARI
Winner: Casey Blake: Blake has a better batting average (.270), more home runs (18) and more RBI’s (78) than Tracy.

SS: Johnny Peralta CLE vs. Stephen Drew ARI
Winner: Johnny Peralta: Stephen Drew is only batting .238.

RF: Franklin Gutierrez CLE vs. Justin Upton ARI
Winner: Franklin Gutierrez: Upton’s batting .221 while Gutierrez is batting .266.

LF: Kenny Lofton CLE vs. Eric Byrnes ARI
Winner: Kenny Lofton: In the regular season I would choose Byrnes, but Lofton is just so good in the playoffs.

CF: Grady Sizemore CLE vs. Chris Young ARI
Winner: Grady Sizemore: they both have good power and stolen base numbers but Chris Young is only batting .237.

DH: Travis Hafner CLE vs. Tony Clark ARI
Winner: Travis Hafner: Travis Hafner had 100 RBI’s this year.

G1SP: CC Sabathia CLE vs. Brandon Webb ARI
Winner: CC Sabathia: The pitchers are very close, but in Cleveland, Sabathia gets the edge.

G2SP: Fausto Carmona CLE vs. Livan Hernandez ARI
Winner: Fausto Carmona: Carmona had a 1.14 ERA in September.

G3SP: Jake Westbrook CLE vs. Doug Davis ARI
Winner: Jake Westbrook: Westbrook had a 4.14 ERA in September.

G4SP: Paul Byrd CLE vs. Micah Owings ARI
Winner: Micah Owings: Micah has a 4.30 ERA while Byrd has a 4.57 ERA and it’s in Arizona.

G5SP: CC Sabathia CLE vs. Brandon Webb ARI
Winner: Brandon Webb: The pitchers are very close, but in Arizona, Webb gets the edge.

G6SP: Jake Westbrook CLE vs. Doug Davis ARI
Winner: Jake Westbrook: It’s in Cleveland and they both have done pretty well this year, but Westbrook had a better September so he has more confidence.

G7SP: Fausto Carmona CLE vs. Livan Hernandez ARI
Winner: Fausto Carmona: Hernandez has an ERA of almost 5.00 while Carmona is in Cy Young talk.

Indians 14, D’Backs 2

Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think will win NL MVP?
Matt Holliday – 62%
Jimmy Rollins – 15%
Carlos Beltran – 8%
Prince Fielder – 8%
Ryan Howard – 8%
All others – 0%

Come back next week for part 6 of the Doug Melvin Trade Analysis.