This week I will give my predictions for the standings, playoffs, and awards.
Regular Season Standings:
AL West:
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland A’s
4. Seattle Mariners
AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians – wild card
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals
AL East:
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
NL West:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Francisco Giants
NL Central:
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals – wild card
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL East:
1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Florida Marlins
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Washington Nationals
Playoffs:
AL Division Series:
New York Yankees over Cleveland Indians
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim over Detroit Tigers
NL Division Series:
New York Mets over St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds over Los Angeles Dodgers
Championship Games:
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim over New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds over New York Mets
World Series:
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim over Cincinnati Reds
Champions:
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Awards:
AL MVP: Travis Hafner because last year he hit 42 HR and drove in 117 RBI’s. He also hit over .300. Travis did all this and was injured for almost a month. If he does get the MVP award, that would be another reason why the Hafner/Drese/Diaz trade was awful.
NL MVP: Ryan Howard because he hit almost 60 homers last year, hit .313, and will probably get better as he gets more experience.
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana because nobody in baseball can compete with him.
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt because he has the ability to fool, overpower, and make players miss.
AL Rookie of the Year: Dice-K Matsuzaka because he is one of the very few top rookies this year that will get a lot of playing time on a competing team.
NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Young because he can hit for power very well.
Come back next week for a Rangers roster analysis.
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4 comments:
Great predictions, Grant. Here's the way I would go:
AL West: LAAoA, but I think it's so close anybody but Seattle could win it.
AL Central: Tigers, Indians and Twins have a chance
AL East: I'll take Boston and NYY as the wild card.
NL West: Dodgers - it may not even be close.
NL Central: Cardinals - I'm not so sure the Reds will be in the top 3, but 2-5 will be close.
NL East: Phillies - Mets OR Braves for the Wild card, I'll take the Mets.
ALDS: Boston over LAAoA, Tigers over Yankees
NLDS: Phillies over Cardinals, Dodgers over Mets
ALCS: Boston over Tigers
NLCS: Dodgers over Phillies
World Series: Dodgers over Red Sox
AL MVP: Arod
NL MVP: Soriano
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
NL Cy Young: Chris Young
AL ROY: Dice-K - not quite fair
NL ROY: Chris Young - much more wide open race, but I would like to see a Chris Young win both Cy Young and ROY in the same league.
I think all your picks are pretty good except for the NL East. Mets are 4-0, Braves are 3-1, so it might be close. I just don't think the Braves have enough offense after McCann, Francoeur, Jones, and Jones, like the Mets do.
Braves 6-9 line-up:
6. Chris Woodward
7. Craig Wilson
8. Matt Diaz
9. Pitcher
Mets 6-9 line-up:
6. Moises Alou
7. Shawn Green
8. Jose Valentin
9. Pitcher
If Alou gets injured, which he probably will, the Mets still have 3 good outfielders to take his place, David Newhan, Lastings Milledge, and Endy Chavez.
If Chipper gets injured, which will also probably happen, the Braves can only do a Edgar Renteria move to 3rd, and having Pete Orr or Kelly Johnson to take short, neither being good.
I can see where you are coming from pitching-wise, but the Mets offense is just too good.
Also, the Reds have more good starting pitchers than the Cardinals.
The Cardinals have only Chris Carpenter, while the Reds have Aaron Haraang and Bronson Arroyo and Kyle Lohse. The Cards also have two closers that are now starters in there rotation. The Reds, in my opionion, also have a better offense. Both teams are injury prone on offense.
The rest are all pretty good. I'd like to know why isn't Dice-K fair? The other players also have experience kind of like his, the minors. Also, I'd like to know you're reasoning behind the two picks I argued with and the Dodgers winning the World Series.
If the NL keeps playing like it is, the Reds, Mets and Dodgers will all win their divisions, and the Pittsburgh Pirates will be the Wild Card, so we know that it isn't going to keep going the way it is in the NL with them as the Wild Card.
Grant-
Your reasons are why I picked the Mets for the Wild Card over the Braves. I think the Braves will be close mainly because of coaching. I picked the Phillies over both mainly because I liked their combination of experienced players and young talent. But right now that pick is not looking so great. So the Mets and Braves may both finish higher than the Phillies.
As for the pitchers in the Reds vs. Cardinals:
Cardinals:
Carpenter 15-8, 3.09
Reyes 5-8, 5.06
Wells 2-5, ~6
Wainwright 2-1, 3.12 in relief
Looper 9-3, 3.56 in relief
Reds:
Harang 16-11, 3.76
Arroyo 14-11, 3.29
Lohse 3-5, 4.57
Belisle 2-0, 3.60
Sarloos 7-7, 4.75
DL Milton 8-8, 5.18
DL Ramirez 4-9, 5.37
Yes the Reds have two solid starters in Harang and Arroyo (I don't think Lohse is very solid at this point), but Carpenter is better than both of them. After that it's pretty much a tossup on whether or not you think young pitchers (Lohse/Belisle/Sarloos) or experience and converted relievers (Wells/Wainwright/Looper) are more valuable. I tend to value experience and coaching, and I think the Cardinals have the advantage in both. The Cardinals lineup is pretty powerful - especially at the top. The Reds have a good lineup, but I'm not sure if it's better than the Cardinals. Fairly close in my opinion. As for the bullpens, I definitely like the Cardinals bullpen better - especially if they could find another quality starter that would allow Wainwright or Looper to shift back to the pen.
I'll still take the Cardinals, but I will admit I probably thought the gap was larger than it is by looking at it closer. That division is very wide open. I think I could make a good argument for anybody but the Pirates. And, honestly, I hope you are right. I'd like to see it be somebody besides the Cardinals - especially the Reds, Cubs, or Brewers.
As for my Dodgers pick, it was largely a gut pick, but I think they have a VERY solid rotation that will get them to the playoffs with a very good top that could win the playoffs. Their bullpen is also top-notch. I think their lineup is already good and they have the money to fill in holes that they need to fill late in the season.
Finally, Dice-K's experience IMO is not equivalent to the minors. Match the quality Asian teams against the best AAA teams - I'm not sure that many AAA teams could last more than 5 games in a 7 game series against the better Asian teams. I think some of the Asian teams would beat quite a few MLB teams. Add on top of that Dice-K's experience in international play against Major League talent. How many players coming out of the minors have done that? All that said - once Nomo was allowed to win in 1995 you can't change the rules, so Dice-K should still be allowed to win. This article on Wikipedia discusses it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MLB_Rookie_of_the_Year_Award#International_experience
GO RANGERS!
Ken
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