Saturday, March 01, 2008

Analysis of Spring Training Infielders

The Rangers opened Spring Training with 14 infielders in major league camp. I did an analysis of all the infielders in big league camp, gave their chances of making the team at the end of Spring Training, and predicted the infield roster.


Edgardo Alfonzo:
Last year, Edgardo didn’t make it to the majors all year after a terrible 2006. In 2006, he only had 87 at-bats, and hit .126 with 0 home runs and 5 RBI’s. In 2005, he hit .277 with 2 home runs and 43 RBI’s in 368 at-bats, so ’06 was a big drop-off for him. Just like last year, I don’t think Edgardo will make the team all year.
Percentage: 19.9% chance of making the 25-man active roster at the end of Spring Training

Elvis Andrus:
Elvis hit .244 in 385 at-bats with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans and .300 in 110 at-bats with the Bakersfield Blaze. Elvis is great at fielding. Even after he did so well after coming to Texas, he’s 19 years old and is just in major league camp for experience.
Percentage: 0%

Joaquin Arias:
Last year Joaquin only had 18 total at-bats due to injury. He had 7 at-bats in the rookie league and 11 in triple-A. Since he’s coming back from injury and I only have one back-up infield spot, he probably won’t make the team.
Percentage: 19.7%

Hank Blalock:
Last year Hank missed a lot of the year due to injury. When he was playing he hit .293 with 10 home runs and 33 RBI’s in only 208 at-bats. Hank had a very good year last year, but he has always been much better in his first month of the year than the others, and last year he pretty much had two first months because of the injury. He will be the starting third baseman, since he’s already shown in camp that he can make the throws from third to first.
Percentage: 100%

Ben Broussard:
Ben had a decent year last year with the Mariners, batting .275 with 7 homers and 29 RBI’s in 240 at-bats. He will be the starting first baseman for the Rangers unless Chris Shelton has an amazing spring.
Percentage: 97.5%

Chris Davis:
Last year, Chris hit .294 with 12 home runs and 25 RBI’s in 109 at-bats in Frisco. In Oklahoma City, he hit .298 with 24 homers and 93 RBI’s in 386 at-bats. His total power numbers last year were 36 home runs with 118 RBI’s, which is very good. Even though he played so well last year, the Rangers are trying to transform him into a first baseman this year, so he won’t make the team.
Percentage: 0%

German Duran:
Last year, German played great, hitting .300 with 22 home runs and 84 RBI’s in 480 at-bats in Frisco. He played so well that the Rangers are trying to make him a utility guy for this year. I don’t think he will be the utility guy, though.
Percentage: 23.4%

Nate Gold:
After a great 2006, where Nate hit .292 with 34 home runs and 103 RBI’s in 452 at-bats in Frisco, Nate played well again in 2007. Last year he hit .292 with 26 homers and 103 RBI’s in 469 at-bats. He had the same batting average and the same amount of RBI’s in both 2006 and 2007. The only stat differences are that he had 8 less home runs in 2007 and 17 more at-bats in 2007. Even though he’s played so well the last couple years, he probably won’t make the team, especially since he’s not on the 40-man roster.
Percentage: 2.3%

Ian Kinsler:
Ian had plenty of power last year, blasting out 20 home runs, with 61 RBI’s. His batting average fell from 06’s .286 to .263. His on-base percentage rose, though, as Ian got 22 more walks than he did in ’06. He will be the starting second baseman.
Percentage: 100%

Travis Metcalf:
In Travis’ 161 at-bats he hit .255 with 5 homers and 21 RBI’s. But he’s known for his fielding, which is very good, but he only had a .947 fielding percentage while in the majors last year. It’s between Travis, Ramon Vazquez, and German Duran for the backup infield spot, and I don’t think Travis will get it, since he’s mostly a third baseman.
Percentage: 40.2%

Ryan Roberts:
Ryan only had 13 at-bats in both 2006 and 2007 and he hit .077 in both years. He has hit 1 career homer with 1 career RBI in his 26 at-bats. His career minor league batting average is .268, although it was only .249 last year. Last year he had 12 home runs and 47 RBI’s while he was in the minors. He has a chance since he can play second and third base, but since he’s not on the 40-man roster, he probably won’t make the team.
Percentage: 18.3%

Chris Shelton:
Last year Chris didn’t play in the majors at all, and only hit .269 with 14 home runs and 64 RBI’s in AAA Tulsa. In 2006 he played for the Tigers and hit .273 with 16 home runs and 47 RBI’s in 373 at-bats. He has a decent chance at making the team, but I don’t think he will.
Percentage: 18.6%

Ramon Vazquez:
Ramon had 300 at-bats last year, and in those he hit .230 with 8 homers and 28 RBI’s. Even though he didn’t hit too well last year, I think he’ll get the back-up infield spot, since he can play second, short, and third base.
Percentage: 66.7%

Michael Young:
After a very slow start last year, Michael ended up getting 201 hits, while hitting .315 with 9 home runs and 94 RBI’s. He will be the starting shortstop.
Percentage: 100%

Infield Roster:
1B: Ben Broussard
2B: Ian Kinsler
3B: Hank Blalock
SS: Michael Young
Utility: Ramon Vazquez

Next in line:
Edgardo Alfonzo
German Duran
Travis Metcalf

Predicted Team Roster:
Starting pitcher #1: Kevin Millwood
Starting pitcher #2: Vicente Padilla
Starting pitcher #3: Jason Jennings
Starting pitcher #4: Brandon McCarthy
Starting pitcher #5: Kason Gabbard
Closer: CJ Wilson
Set-up man: Eddie Guardado
7th inning man: Kazuo Fukumori
Middle Reliever: Frankie FranciscoMiddle Reliever: Wes Littleton
Middle/Long Reliever: Joaquin Benoit
Long Reliever: Kameron Loe

Catcher: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Backup Catcher: Gerald Laird

1B: Ben Broussard
2B: Ian Kinsler
3B: Hank Blalock
SS: Michael Young
Utility: Ramon Vazquez

OF: Josh Hamilton
OF: Marlon Byrd
OF: Milton Bradley
OF: David Murphy
OF: Frank Catalanotto
DH: Jason Botts

Next in line:
Edgardo Alfonzo
Nelson Cruz
Jason Davis
German Duran
Jason Ellison
Scott Feldman
Wes Littleton
Adam Melhuse
Kevin Mench
Luis Mendoza
Travis Metcalf
Chris Stewart
Jamey Wright

Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think will get the last outfield/DH spot?
Jason Botts – 72%
Kevin Mench – 20%
Nelson Cruz – 4%
Jason Ellison – 4%
Other – 0%

Come back next week for Part 4 of the Tom Grieve Trade Analysis.


miles said...

How do you come up with these percentages? They don't make sense. 100%? Nothing is 100%, what if Michael Young breaks his leg and goes on IR. Then that 100% would be untrue.

grantlovesbaseball said...

Hi Miles - thanks for reading my blog. My percentages usually don't involve injury unless the player's very injury prone or is recovering from an injury. Of course everyone knows that nothing is 100% and anything can happen. 100% means that the player is a lock to make the roster unless something that no one can predict, like injury or a car crash, occurs.