Sunday, October 25, 2009

World Series Predictions

This week I will give my predictions for the World Series for both the Phillies vs. Yankees scenario and for the Phillies vs. Angels scenario.

Phillies vs. Yankees: Philadelphia in 7
Here’s how I would have it playing out:
Game 1: CC Sabathia (NYY) over Cliff Lee (PHI) in New York
Game 2: Cole Hamels (PHI) over AJ Burnett (NYY) in New York
Game 3: Pedro Martinez (PHI) over Andy Pettite (NYY) in Philadelphia
Game 4: Cliff Lee (PHI) over CC Sabathia (NYY) in Philadelphia
Game 5: AJ Burnett (NYY) over Cole Hamels (PHI) in Philadelphia
Game 6: Andy Pettite (NYY) over Pedro Martinez (PHI) in New York
Game 7: Cliff Lee (PHI) over CC Sabathia (NYY) in New York

I think that Cliff Lee will be the difference-maker in this series. Nobody so far has been able to match up with CC Sabathia this postseason, but Cliff Lee is pitching just as well as CC right now, and I think will win two out of three times facing CC. AJ Burnett and Cole Hamels have both been struggling this postseason, so I think they are about equal. Both Pedro and Pettite are good clutch pitchers, and so I have them splitting, too.

The offenses of both these teams are the best two in all of baseball. Here’s how I break down their lineups:
1: Derek Jeter (NYY) over Jimmy Rollins (PHI) – Jimmy Rollins just isn’t himself this year, and, even if he was, he’s still no Derek Jeter.
2: Shane Victorino (PHI) over Johnny Damon (NYY) – Shane Victorino is hitting .361 this postseason while Johnny Damon is only hitting .211.
3: Chase Utley (PHI) over Mark Teixeira (NYY) – Mark Teixeira has only a .256 OBP this postseason, while Chase Utley has a .439 OBP.
4: Alex Rodriguez (NYY) tied with Ryan Howard (PHI) – Even though A-ROD has better stats so far, Ryan has been to the World Series, while A-ROD has not.
5: Jayson Werth (PHI) over Hideki Matsui (NYY) – Jayson already has 5 home runs this postseason, while Matsui only has 1.
6: Raul Ibanez (PHI) over Robinson Cano (NYY) – Robinson has only five RBI’s, while Raul Ibanez has nine.
7: Jorge Posada (NYY) over Pedro Feliz (PHI) – Pedro is hitting .161 this postseason. That’s horrible.
8: Carlos Ruiz (PHI) over Nick Swisher (NYY) – Carlos is hitting .346 with a .500 OBP so far this postseason, while Swisher is hitting .103.


Phillies vs. Angels: Philadelphia in 6
Here’s how I have it playing out:
Game 1: Cliff Lee (PHI) over John Lackey (LAA) in Anaheim
Game 2: Joe Saunders (LAA) over Cole Hamels (PHI) in Anaheim
Game 3: Pedro Martinez (PHI) over Jered Weaver (LAA) in Philadelphia
Game 4: Cliff Lee (PHI) over John Lackey (LAA) in Philadelphia
Game 5: Joe Saunders (LAA) over Cole Hamels (PHI) in Philadelphia
Game 6: Pedro Martinez (PHI) over Jered Weaver (LAA) in Anaheim

John Lackey couldn’t quite match up with CC, so I don’t think he’ll be able to match up with Cliff Lee. Even though Joe Saunders isn’t that great, Cole Hamels has been horrible this postseason, so I have Joe winning both their match-ups, and then Pedro is just a good clutch pitcher.

The Phillies offense, in my opinion, is better than the Angels offense by a fairly large margin:
1: Jimmy Rollins (PHI) over Chone Figgins (LAA) – Figgins has two hits this postseason and is hitting .065.
2: Shane Victorino (PHI) over Bobby Abreu (LAA) – Bobby is hitting only .267 this postseason, which is only because Victorino is hitting .361.
3: Chase Utley (PHI) over Torii Hunter (LAA) – Torii is hitting only .276 with only one home run this postseason.
4: Ryan Howard (PHI) over Vladimir Guerrero (LAA) – Howard tied the record for most consecutive playoff games with an RBI earlier this postseason with 8. Vlad can’t match that.
5: Jayson Werth (PHI) over Juan Rivera (LAA) – Jayson has 5 home runs. Juan has none.
6: Raul Ibanez (PHI) over Howie Kendrick (LAA) – Howie has worked no walks this postseason, and that really hurts his OBP.
7: Kendry Morales (LAA) over Pedro Feliz (PHI) – Even Kendry’s .200 batting average is better than Pedro’s .161 batting average.
8: Carlos Ruiz (PHI) over Mike Napoli (LAA) – Carlos is hitting .346 with a .500 OBP. Mike is hitting .154 with a .267 OBP.

Come back next week for my Results vs. Predictions Comparison.

2 comments:

lisa taylor said...

I would love the Phillies to win...hoping you're right. Is there any way to email you directly?

grantlovesbaseball said...

Hi Lisa - thanks for reading. If you want to leave your email address in a comment, I'll send you an email and also erase the comment so that your email address isn't left on my blog.

Thanks again
Grant