Sunday, April 18, 2010

Jon Daniels Trade Analysis Part 3

It’s been a while since I did a summary of Jon Daniels’ trades. The last time I did it was in October of 2007, at which time I had given him a 16-4-7 record for all of his trades up to that point. This week I continued my Jon Daniels Trade Analysis, taking up where I left off, and gave each trade a win, loss, or a draw, and analyzed them.

One thing that’s tough about analyzing these recent trades is trying to project what prospects might do in the future. So I didn’t do that, meaning I’m scoring each trade on the basis of the impact at the major league level as of today, because impact at the major league level is ultimately how each trade will be judged. That means that many of the scores will probably change sometime in the future.

12/6/07 - Acquired 1B Chris Shelton from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for OF Freddy Guzman

Draw – Chris was terrible as a Ranger. In his 97 at-bats as a Ranger, Chris hit just .216, and had a terrible .330 slugging percentage. Not only did he hit .216, Chris struck out 33 times, 34% of his at-bats. Freddy Guzman has just 10 at-bats and one hit since the trade.

Record: 16-4-8

12/21/07 - Acquired OF Josh Hamilton from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RHP Edinson Volquez and Minor League LHP Danny Herrera.

Loss – Josh and Volquez have basically done the same so far, they both had All-Star years in 2008, and then were injured for much of the year in 2009. So they cancel each other out. But the Reds also got a very solid relief pitcher in the trade. Danny Ray Herrera had a 3.06 ERA in 61.2 innings pitched in 2009. Herrera is a very valuable left-handed specialist in the Reds bullpen. There is a great chance when it’s all said and done this trade will be a win, but as of today, it’s slightly in the Reds’ favor.

Record: 16-5-8

2/5/08 - Acquired OF Michael Hernandez from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for RHP Armando Galarraga.

Loss – Armando had a great year in 2008 with the Tigers, as he had a 13-7 record and a 3.73 ERA in 178.2 innings pitched. He had a .226 opponents batting average. He didn’t have anywhere near as good a year in ’09 as he did in ’08, with a 5.64 ERA in 143.2 innings pitched. That is in exchange for Michael Hernandez, who has never made it to the majors.

Record: 16-6-8

3/28/08 - Acquired RHP Dustin Nippert from the Arizona Diamondbacks for non-roster RHP Jose Marte.

Win – Dustin Nippert has been a very good contributor to the Rangers, while Jose Marte has never made it to the big league for the Diamondbacks or for any other team. Dustin had a 3.88 ERA in 69.2 innings for the Rangers in 2009 and is very valuable, as he can be used as a long reliever or a spot starter.

Record: 17-6-8

8/25/08 - Acquired RHP Mark Hamburger from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for LHP Eddie Guardado

Draw – Eddie pitched only 7 innings for the Twins in ’08 after the trade before coming back to the Rangers for the ’09 season. Mark Hamburger has not yet made it to the Rangers (and is currently with the High-A team), but the Rangers only gave up 7 innings to get him. This trade made no difference to either team to this point, but has the chance to become a win for the Rangers depending on what Hamburger does.

Record: 17-6-9

11/20/08 - Acquired OF Greg Golson from the Philadelphia Phillies for OF John Mayberry.

Draw – Neither player has played significant time in the majors since the trade, although John Mayberry, Jr. did get 57 at-bats with the Phillies last year (and also got a World Series ring). But he hit just .211, even though he did hit four home runs. Golson got just one at-bat as a Ranger. Even though Mayberry has been better, it’s not significant enough to make it a loss at this point. That could change in the future, though, as Mayberry is still with the Phillies while Golson is out of the Rangers’ organization.

Record: 17-6-10

12/8/08 - Acquired RHP Guillermo Moscoso and RHP Carlos Melo from the Detroit Tigers for C Gerald Laird.

Draw – Even though the Rangers really struggled at the catcher position offensively last year, and Salty got injured, Gerald Laird didn’t have a good season either. He hit just .225 with four home runs and 33 RBI’s in 413 at-bats for the Detroit Tigers last season. Moscoso has pitched 14 innings in the majors for the Rangers (3.21 ERA), which obviously isn’t significant time, and Carlos Melo has not yet made it to the major leagues (and it looks like he’ll be on one of the short season clubs this year).

Record: 17-6-11

Come back next week for Jon Daniels Trade Analysis Part 4 and a GM Comparison.

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