Saturday, May 15, 2010

Jon Daniels Trade Analysis Part 4 and GM Comparison

This week I will post the fourth part of my Jon Daniels Trade Analysis series, giving each trade from August 18th of 2009 through the present a win, loss, or draw. Please see the 4/18/10 post for the last entry in this series. I will also compare Jon to Doug Melvin, Jon Hart, and Tom Grieve.

One thing that’s tough about analyzing these recent trades is trying to project what prospects might do in the future. So I didn’t do that, meaning I’m scoring each trade on the basis of the impact at the major league level as of today, because impact at the major league level is ultimately how each trade will be judged. That means that many of the scores will probably change sometime in the future.

8/18/09 Acquired C Ivan Rodriguez from the Houston Astros for RHP Matt Nevarez and SS Jose Vallejo.

Win – Neither Nevarez or Vallejo have made it to the majors yet (although Nevarez is on Houston’s 40-man roster), while Pudge was a good contributor for the Rangers last year. He hit just .245 with 2 home runs and 13 RBI’s in his 98 at-bats with Texas, but that was better than the Rangers were getting from the catching position before that. Plus it was awesome having Pudge as a Ranger again.

Record: 18-6-11

9/4/09 Acquired RHP Danny Gutierrez from the Kansas City Royals for LF Tim Smith and C Manuel Pina.

Draw – This trade could easily end up being a win or a loss, as nobody has made it to the majors in this deal yet. Manny Pina is the only one of the three on a 40-man roster.

Record: 18-6-12

12/7/09 Acquired RHP Clay Rapada from the Detroit Tigers for cash considerations.

Draw – Although the Rangers gave up nothing, they haven’t gotten anything in return. I could definitely see this one being a win by the end of the year, as Rapada has a good ERA at Triple-A, at 3.00.

Record: 18-6-13

12/9/09 Acquired RHP Chris Ray and Ben Snyder from the Baltimore Orioles for RHP Kevin Millwood and cash.

Loss – This move was basically Kevin Millwood for Chris Ray and Rich Harden, because the trade was to get enough money to sign Harden. Harden has a 4.93 ERA, while Millwood has a 3.69 ERA, and although Chris Ray has been very good this year, with a 2.76 ERA, it’s still not worth it, because Millwood has been significantly better than Harden and we could use Millwood’s presence in the rotation. Snyder hasn’t played in the majors for the Rangers yet.

Record: 18-7-13

1/26/10 Traded Greg Golson to the New York Yankees for Mitch Hilligoss and cash.

Draw – Golson is currently on the Yankees’ major league roster but has only had 5 at-bats so far, so this is still a draw for the moment.

Record: 18-7-14

3/22/10 Acquired C Matt Treanor from the Milwaukee Brewers for SS Ray Olmedo.

Win – Ray Olmedo hasn’t played for the Brewers yet, and although Treanor hasn’t been very good (.200 AVG, 1 HR, 6 RBI), the most important thing he did was that he allowed the Rangers to send both Salty and Teagarden down to figure it out. This win isn’t about performance, it’s about what it allowed the Rangers to do.

Record: 19-7-14

3/24/10 Acquired SS Gregorio Petit from the Oakland Athletics for RHP Edwar Ramirez.

Draw – Even though Petit hasn’t played for the Rangers, and Ramirez has pitched for the A’s, Ramirez has allowed 7 runs in 11 innings, and has walked 10, so he’s been terrible, and he’s not in the majors anymore.

Record: 19-7-15

3/27/10 Acquired SS Andres Blanco from the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later.

Win – Blanco is hitting just .222, and his on-base percentage would only be an okay batting average, and that’s horrible. But I give this a win because Blanco is providing some contribution at the major league level and helped us fill a gap while Kinsler was out, while so far we haven’t given up anything in return.

Record: 20-7-15

4/2/10 Traded RHP Luis Mendoza to the Kansas City Royals for cash.

Draw – A change of scenery did nothing for Luis Mendoza, unless you look at the ERA differential from last year and not the actual ERA’s. His ERA is down 13.50 from last year, but is still at 22.50. After just four innings the Royals sent him down to the minors, so the Rangers aren’t missing anything.

Record: 20-7-16

Finally, I accidentally skipped a trade I should have covered last week:
11/28/08 Traded Wes Littleton to the Boston Red Sox for cash. The Boston Red Sox sent Beau Vaughan (December 11, 2008) to the Rangers to complete the trade.

Draw – Neither player has appeared in the majors since the trade.

Record: 20-7-17


Tom Grieve:
Record: 10-13-28
Winning percentage: 43%
Number of trades: 51 in 11 years (average of 4.6 trades per year)

Doug Melvin:
Record: 15-14-16
Winning percentage: 52%
Number of trades: 45 in 7 years (average of 6.4 trades per year)

John Hart:
Record: 7-11-18
Winning percentage: 39%
Number of trades: 36 in 4 years (average of 9 trades per year)

Jon Daniels:Record: 20-7-17
Winning percentage: 74%
Number of trades: 44 in 4.5 years (average of 9.8 trades per year)

Come back next week for my May All-Star Teams.

No comments: