Sunday, September 12, 2010

Predictions for Final Standings

This week will be a short blog due to the plethora of homework I have to do, although I would much rather have a longer blog and less homework. For this week’s blog, I will give my predictions on what the standings will be at the end of the season, and give some analysis on the teams that I think will either move in or drop out of the playoffs.

AL West:
1. Texas Rangers (currently 79-63, +7.5)
2. Oakland Athletics (currently 71-70, -7.5)
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (currently 69-73, -10)
4. Seattle Mariners (currently 55-87, -24)

I think that this one is pretty obvious all the way around, with fairly large gaps between every team in the division.

AL Central:
1. Minnesota Twins (currently 84-58, +6)
2. Chicago White Sox (currently 78-64, -6)
3. Detroit Tigers (currently 71-72, -13.5)
4. Kansas City Royals (currently 58-83, -25.5)
5. Cleveland Indians (currently 58-84, -26)

This one is also a pretty obvious division as far as end-of-the-year standings, with a healthy gap between every team except for the Royals and Indians battling for last place. As far as that race, I think that the Royals are the better team of the two, so the Indians will finish in last.

AL East:
1. Tampa Bay Rays (currently 86-55, -0.5)
2. New York Yankees (currently 87-55, +0.5)
3. Boston Red Sox (currently 78-64, -9)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (currently 72-70, -15)
5. Baltimore Orioles (currently 55-87, -32)

Right now the Yankees are in first place, but I think that the Rays will be in first place by the end of the year, simply due to their schedules. To finish out the year, the Yankees have 16 games against winning teams, and only 3 against losing teams, and that team is the Orioles, who have a winning record under Buck Showalter. The Rays, on the other hand, have only 8 games against winning teams, and 13 games against losing teams. That is a huge difference to finish out the year.

NL West:
1. Colorado Rockies (currently 78-64, -2.5)
2. San Francisco Giants (currently 80-63, -1)
3. San Diego Padres (currently 80-61, +1)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (currently 71-72, -10)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (currently 57-85, -23.5)

Once again, I am basing much of this on schedules. The Padres are in first place now, but have a terrible schedule, with 14 games against winning teams, and 7 against losing ones, and they also have just 8 home games of their last 21 games. The Giants have the easiest schedule with 12-out-of-19 home games and 12-out-of-19 games against losing teams, but I give the Rockies the edge due to the extent of their hotness. They have won 9 of their last 10, and have a completely even schedule with 10-of-20 home games and 10-of-20 games against winning teams, so their schedule won’t get in their way.

NL Central:
1. Cincinnati Reds (currently 81-61, +7)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (currently 73-67, -7)
3. Houston Astros (currently 67-75, -14)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (currently 65-76, -15.5)
5. Chicago Cubs (currently 62-80, -19)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (currently 47-94, -33.5)

I don’t think that this division will change at all. The Reds are way up in the division, and I think the Cardinals have a better chance of being caught by the Astros than they do of catching the Reds. As for the battle for 3rd place, I don’t see the Brewers having enough pitching to even make up the 1.5 games between them and Houston.

NL East:
1. Atlanta Braves (currently 82-61, +0)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (currently 82-61, +0)
3. Florida Marlins (currently 72-69, -9)
4. New York Mets (70-72, -11.5)
5. Washington Nationals (60-82, -21.5)

The Braves and Phillies are exactly even to this point of the year, and as far as home games and amount of games against winning teams, their schedules are almost exactly even, but I give the Braves the edge due to the schedule anyway. I give them the edge because they have the best home record in all of baseball (51-20), and 7 of the 10 games that they have against winning team are at home, so almost all the road games they have are against losing teams.

Come back next week for a pennant chase special.

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