Sunday, November 21, 2010

Season Predictions vs. Results

This week I will compare my predictions from before the season started (from my March 13th post) to the actual results of the season, which was fun for me to do, especially since I got so many right.

AL East:

Prediction:
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

Result:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees (Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Percentage Correct:
0/5, 0%

Explanation:
There’s no way that I could’ve predicted all the injuries that the Red Sox had, so that prediction wasn’t too bad, but I don’t know what I was thinking putting the Orioles ahead of the Blue Jays.

AL Central:

Prediction:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

Result:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

Percentage Correct:
3/5, 60%, correctly picked 1st through 3rd place

Explanation:
The Indians were only 2 games better than the Royals, and, really, they’re both so bad that it really doesn’t matter.

AL West:

Prediction:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Anaheim Angels
4. Oakland Athletics

Result:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Anaheim Angels
4. Seattle Mariners

Percentage Correct:
2/4, 50%, correctly predicted Texas to win the division

Explanation:
The Mariners were a hot pick at the beginning of the season, with the offseason additions of Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, and Chone Figgins, and I bought into it. I guess I forgot that you need to score at least a run a game to be able to win.

NL East:

Prediction:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

Result:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves (Wild Card)
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

Percentage Correct:
5/5, 100%

Explanation:
Nailed it. If only I had picked the Braves to win the wild card, it would’ve been perfect.

NL Central:

Prediction:
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

Result:
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Percentage Correct:
0/6, 0%

Explanation:
Wow. I just got 100% correct in the East, and now I follow it up with this. Ouch. I figured that with the Cardinals rotation, they would win the division, and that of course the Cubs wouldn’t be that bad, right? Well, obviously they were that bad. But the real question here is: Why didn’t I put the Pirates in last place? Note to self: Don’t predict the Pirates to finish out of last place until after they actually do.

NL East:

Prediction:
1. San Francisco Giants
2. Colorado Rockies (Wild Card)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

Result:
1. San Francisco Giants
2. San Diego Padres
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Percentage Correct:
1/5, 20%, correctly predicted the Giants to win the division

Explanation:
I don’t blame myself too much for this one, because the Padres were supposed to be the worst team in baseball, so I wasn’t the only one predicting them in last place. Obviously, that didn’t happen, but how should I have known a team with so little talent would do so well? They’re like the opposite of the Cowboys.

AL MVP:
Prediction:
Winner: Joe Mauer, MIN
Runner-up: Evan Longoria, TB
Result:
Winner: Josh Hamilton, TEX
Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera, DET
Percentage Correct:
0/2, 0%
Explanation:
Josh hit .268 and only played in 89 games last year. Normally, that doesn’t turn into an MVP the next year, but I’m glad it did. I just didn’t predict it.

Al Cy Young:
Prediction:
Winner: Cliff Lee, SEA
Runner-up: Zack Grienke, KC
Result:
Winner: Felix Hernandez, SEA
Runner-up: David Price, TB
Percentage Correct:
0/2, 0%
Explanation:
Right team, wrong player. I picked Cliff Lee of Seattle to win the award, but it ended up being Felix Hernandez who won the award. But then my runner-up, now that was bad. Grienke had an ERA over 4.00 this year, and I predicted him to be the runner-up in the Cy Young voting. Not even close.

AL Rookie of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: Austin Jackson, DET
Runner-up: Carlos Santana, CLE
Result:
Winner: Neftali Feliz, TEX
Runner-up: Austin Jackson, DET
Percentage Correct:
1/2, 50%
Explanation:
Austin Jackson was a good choice, as I predicted him to finish first, and he ended up finishing second, and then after him, my runner-up was Carlos Santana. If he hadn’t gotten hurt, who knows where he’d have finished, because he was playing well when he went down. Then, also, when I made my predictions, Neftali Feliz was not the Rangers’ closer, so I didn’t expect him to break the rookie saves record, or get anywhere near it.

AL Manager of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: Ron Washington, TEX
Runner-up: Ron Gardenheire, MIN
Result:
Winner: Ron Gardenheire, MIN
Runner-up: Ron Washington, TEX
Percentage Correct:
2/2, 100%
Explanation:
Wow, that’s pretty good. I got both of the names right, just in the wrong order, and, personally, I think that Ron should’ve won, and that my preseason prediction should have been exactly right on this one.

NL MVP:
Prediction:
Winner: Albert Pujols, STL
Runner-up: Joey Votto, CIN
Result:
Winner: Joey Votto, CIN
Runner-up: Albert Pujols, STL
Percentage Correct:
2/2, 100%
Explanation:
I was very close on this one, too. I went out on a limb and chose Joey Votto as my runner-up, and I was wrong, but not in the way I would’ve thought, as he will most likely actually win the award. The only thing I missed on this one was the order, as Votto was first and Pujols was second.

NL Cy Young:
Prediction:
Winner: Adam Wainwright, STL
Runner-up: Tommy Hanson, ATL
Result:
Winner: Roy Halladay, PHI
Runner-up: Adam Wainwright, STL
Percentage Correct:
1/2, 50%
Explanation:
I was very close on Wainwright here, but I very much whiffed on Halladay, and I completely underrated him, although Tommy Hanson did have a solid year.

NL Rookie of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: Jason Heyward, ATL
Runner-up: Madison Bumgarner, SF
Result:
Winner: Buster Posey, SF
Runner-up: Jason Heyward, ATL
Percentage Correct:
1/2, 50%
Explanation:
Once, again, I was one off on a prediction. I predicted Heyward to win, and he finished in second, but still, that’s pretty good.

NL Manager of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: Jim Tracy, COL
Runner-up: Bruce Bochy, SF
Result:
Winner: Bud Black, SD
Runner-up: Dusty Baker, CIN
Percentage Correct:
0/2, 0%
Explanation:
Come on, I predicted the Padres to finish in last place, so there’s no way I would’ve predicted their manager to win manager of the year.

Playoffs:
ALDS Prediction:
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: Rangers in 5
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins: Yankees in 4

ALDS Result:
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Rangers in 5
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins: Yankees in 3

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 3/4, 75%
Series Results: 2/2, 100%

Explanation:
That might be the closest prediction to being right out of anyone. That’s pretty good.

NLDS Prediction:
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies: Cardinals in 4
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Giants in 5

NLDS Result:
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: Phillies in 3
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: Giants in 4

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 2/4, 50%
Series Results: 1/2, 50%

Explanation:
The one series that I missed on was a series in which I had two teams that didn’t even make the playoffs facing each other. It’s hard to get that one right when that happens.

ALCS Prediction:
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers: Yankees in 7

ALCS Result:
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers: Rangers in 6

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 2/2, 100%
Series Result: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
Wow, I can’t believe that I got both of these teams right. Not bad.

NLCS Prediction:
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants: Giants in 5

NLCS Result:
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: Giants in 6

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 1/2, 50%
Series Result: 1/1, 100%

Explanation:
I did pretty good here, too.

World Series Prediction:
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: Giants in 6

World Series Result:
Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants: Giants in 5

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 1/2, 50%
Series Result: 1/1, 100%

Explanation:
Wow. I picked the eventual champion back in March. My preseason predictions were a success, if I do say so myself.

Come back next week for a free agent special.

2 comments:

Lynn Leaming said...

You are awesome! You know your baseball for sure!!

grantlovesbaseball said...

Hi Ms. Lynn,

Thanks, I was pretty surprised when I looked back and saw just how close so many of my predictions were. I was shocked that I had put Votto as my NL MVP runner-up.

Grant