Sunday, October 16, 2011

World Series Predictions

This week the Rangers won the ALCS over the Detroit Tigers 4 games to 2 (which I predicted would happen) and punched their ticket to the World Series for the second straight year. I was there Saturday night to see them clinch and will be there this weekend for the World Series. I am so pumped and can’t wait for Wednesday, when the Series starts.

Below are my predictions for both potential World Series scenarios.

Rangers vs. Cardinals:

Game 1: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Chris Carpenter, STL in St. Louis

CARDINALS WIN – While Carpenter has only had one good start out of three so far this postseason, he still has a 3.71 postseason ERA, and had a great start in his only ever World Series appearance, going 8 scoreless innings. Also, CJ has been really struggling so far in these playoffs, with an 8.04 ERA, allowing 6 home runs, and allowing 6 earned runs in 2 of his 3 outings. He is doing this despite ending the year with a 1.21 September ERA. However, in his only World Series start last year, he allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings.

Game 2: Colby Lewis, TEX vs. Jaime Garcia, STL in St. Louis

RANGERS WIN – Colby will probably start Game 2 since it will be on the road, and he had a 3.43 road ERA this year compared to a 5.54 ERA at home. So far these playoffs he has had one great start and one bad start, totaling up to a 3.86 ERA. In his career, he has a 2.37 playoff ERA, and had a great start and picked up the win in his start in the World Series last year. Meanwhile, Jaime has struggled so far in the playoffs, with a 5.74 ERA. He didn’t get out of the 5th inning in either of his two NLCS starts, and I see those struggles continuing against this great Rangers lineup.

Game 3: Derek Holland, TEX vs. Edwin Jackson, STL in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – While Edwin Jackson has done well so far in these playoffs, I don’t think that will continue. I think the Rangers offense will get to him early and often, and get to the bullpen early in the game. Meanwhile, Holland has been awful so far in these playoffs, with a 5.27 ERA, and I think the Cards will get to the Rangers bullpen early, too. Both bullpens have been great so far in the postseason, and so I give this game to the Rangers based on the hitting edge. By the way, I think that Scott Feldman should take Holland’s spot in the rotation.

Game 4: Matt Harrison, TEX vs. Kyle Lohse, STL in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – While Harrison hasn’t gone deep into either of his two starts, he has allowed only 2 runs in 5 innings in each game, which is enough to let the Rangers shutdown bullpen win the game. Kyle Lohse, however, has been awful in the playoffs so far, with a 7.45 ERA, and 9 runs, 8 earned, in just 9.2 innings. In his 8 career playoff outings, Lohse has a 5.09 ERA.

Game 5: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Chris Carpenter, STL in Arlington

CARDINALS WIN – Carpenter shows up big in big games, and CJ hasn’t shown that this postseason.

Game 6: Colby Lewis, TEX vs. Jaime Garcia, STL in St. Louis

RANGERS WIN – Lewis has been good on the road and in the playoffs in his career, but the major reason the Rangers win this one is because of the run support Colby should get.

Rangers win World Series 4 games to 2.


Rangers vs. Brewers:

Game 1: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Zack Grienke, MIL in Milwaukee

RANGERS WIN – This one will probably be a very high scoring game, as CJ has an 8.04 playoff ERA and Grienke has a 6.48 playoff ERA, and both are facing prolific offenses. I think the difference here will be that CJ has World Series experience while Grienke does not.

Game 2: Colby Lewis, TEX vs. Randy Wolf, MIL in Milwaukee

RANGERS WIN – Once again, Colby will probably go in Game 2 since he has been much better on the road than at home this season. And while Colby has been good in the playoffs throughout his career, Randy Wolf has not and has an 8.10 ERA this postseason, allowing 4 home runs in 10 innings to offenses that are nowhere near as powerful as the Rangers’. Also, the Rangers bullpen is better than the Brewers, which should have a big effect in this one, as I don’t expect either starter to go deep into the game.

Game 3: Derek Holland, TEX vs. Shaun Marcum, MIL in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – While Holland has not been good in these playoffs, with a 5.27 ERA, and having no starts in which he has gone more than 5 innings, Shaun Marcum has been much worse. In two starts so far, Shaun has a 12.46 ERA, allowing 7 runs, all earned in 4.2 innings in his first start, and 5 runs, all earned in 4 innings in his second start. Also, the Brewers were 39-42 on the road during the season, and are 1-4 on the road so far in the playoffs.

Game 4: Matt Harrison, TEX vs. Yovani Gallardo, MIL in Arlington

BREWERS WIN – Gallardo has been the only good pitcher for the Brewers in the playoffs so far, with a 2.84 ERA, but even he has had a bad start, allowing 4 runs in 5 innings in his first NLCS start. Unfortunately for the Brewers, he will have to pitch Game 7 of the NLCS (if there is one), most likely making him the Game 4 starter. And while Harrison hasn’t been bad, he hasn’t been good, either.

Game 5: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Zack Grienke, MIL in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – This should be another high scoring game, but the Rangers get the edge due to the Brewers’ road struggles and the team’s experience.

Rangers win World Series 4 games to 1.

Come back next week for more World Series coverage.

2 comments:

Lynn Leaming said...

So excited that your Rangers have made it to the World Series and hope that you are right that this is the year they win it ALL. So exciting that you can be there! Enjoy!!

grantlovesbaseball said...

Hi Mrs. Lynn,

I was hoping I was right, too. I'm still depressed that they didn't get it done, especially after what happened Game 6. Being there was awesome, though. Maybe next year.

Thanks,
Grant