Rangers Offseason Analysis

Sorry I haven’t posted anything in a couple of weeks. I have been out of town in Cincinnati and in Disney World.

This week I will analyze the moves that the Rangers have made so far this offseason, along with giving them a grade, on an A through F scale, with A being the best, and giving them an importance grade, on an A through F scale, based on how important the move is for the Rangers, with A being the most important.

On November 21st, the Rangers signed closer Joe Nathan on a 2-yr, $14 million deal with a club option worth $9 million for a third year.

ANALYSIS: I think that this is a really good move by the Rangers. They are getting a guy in Nathan who has the potential to be the best closer in baseball, as before his Tommy John surgery he was posting ERAs of 1.58, 1.88, and 1.33 consecutively. And while he struggled coming off of the injury last year, he did improve towards the end of the year. He also makes the Rangers all-around pitching staff better, as his signing allowed the Rangers to move Neftali Feliz to the rotation, which may move Alexi Ogando back to the bullpen, leaving the Rangers with a new potential ace in the rotation and another dominant set-up man alongside Mike Adams. They may have overpaid just a little bit to sign Nathan, but I still like the move, especially with all of the positive ramifications it creates.
GRADE: B+
IMPORTANCE: A

On December 1st, the Rangers traded C Taylor Teagarden to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHP Randy Henry.

ANALYSIS: While I will miss Taylor, as he is a really good guy and a good defensive catcher, I am happy he will get the opportunity to back up Matt Wieters in Baltimore. However, this is not a big loss at all for the Rangers, as he was spending almost all of his time at Triple-A and the Rangers obviously had no confidence in him, as they even traded for an emergency third catcher for September in Matt Treanor. Taylor had only 34 big league at-bats last year. Randy Henry is a right-handed relief pitcher who had a very good year last year, posting a 2.22 ERA between Low-A and High-A, including a 0.82 ERA against right-handed batters while in High-A. Despite a good season last year, Randy doesn’t figure to have a significant future with the Rangers.
GRADE: C
IMPORTANCE: D

On December 9th, the Rangers signed 2B Alberto Gonzalez to a minor league contract.

ANALYSIS: This is a nice pick-up as a guy to replace Esteban German, who went to Japan. Alberto is a utility infielder with plenty of major league experience that they can have in the minors as an emergency man in case there is an injury amongst the Rangers infield (cough, Kinsler). Alberto isn’t all that great, but he provides some good depth. He did have 247 at-bats last year, however, and while he hit only .215, he played good defense, and hit well with runners in scoring position, with a .278 average.
GRADE: B-
IMPORTANCE: C

On December 19th, the Rangers won the bidding for the rights to negotiate with Japanese SP Yu Darvish with a $51.7 million bid.

ANALYSIS: I love this move. Darvish has all the pitches to be an ace. He throws up to 96 miles per hour, and reportedly has 4 plus pitches, which is just ridiculous. He posted an ERA of 1.44 this past year for the Nippon Ham Fighters. That was the best ERA of his career, and it is hard to set a new low when you have ERAs of 1.82, 1.88, 1.73, and 1.78 in your first four seasons. He has thrown for 200+ innings in four of his five seasons, which shows that he can be a workhorse, and he had a ridiculous amount of strikeouts (276) in 2011. Another thing I like about him is that he is only 25 years old, unlike most pitchers who come out of Japan who are already veterans. Now, the Rangers obviously haven’t signed Yu yet, as they only won the right to negotiate with him, but I think he is worth the amazing amount of money it will take to get him.
GRADE: A
IMPORTANCE: A-

On December 21st, the Rangers traded RHP Ryan Kelly to the San Diego Padres in exchange for C Luis Martinez.

ANALYSIS: Like the pick-up of Alberto Gonzalez, this trade adds good depth in the minor league system at a position where depth is needed. Also, like Gonzalez, Martinez has some major league experience, and is much, much better defensively than at the dish. He hit just .203 last year in 59 at-bats for the Padres, but he played very well defensively, committing no errors, and throwing out a decent percentage of base-stealers. The loss of Tucker isn’t a big deal, either, as he did not have a place on the Rangers, and even if there were injuries, he would be well down the list for a potential call-up.
GRADE: B-
IMPORTANCE: C

Come back next week for more offseason analysis.

Pre-Season Predictions vs. Results

This week I will compare my preseason predictions with what ended up happening.

AL East:

Prediction:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees (wild card)
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Result:
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays (wild card)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Percentage Correct:
1/5 (20%)

Explanation:
I bought into the Red Sox hype coming into the year, and so their late-season collapse really hurt me here. Also, the Rays huge comeback hurt me, as I figured there was no way they’d be any good after losing Garza, Pena, Crawford, and Bartlett.

AL Central:

Prediction:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

Result:
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

Percentage Correct:
1/5 (20%)

Explanation:
Wow, was Minnesota bad. They won the division last year and basically returned the exact same team. However, almost every single one of their pitchers pitched worse than last year, and Mauer was injured and out most of it. Also, I learned never to buy into the White Sox. Too old.

AL West:

Prediction:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Seattle Mariners

Result:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

Percentage Correct:
2/4 (50%)

Explanation:
I actually did pretty well predicting this division.

AL MVP:
Prediction:
Winner: Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
Runner-up: Robinson Cano, NYY
Result:
Winner: Justin Verlander, DET
Runner-up: Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
Percentage Correct:
0/2 (0%)
Explanation:
I didn’t get either right, but my predictions weren’t terrible as they finished 6th and 7th in voting.

AL Cy Young:
Prediction:
Winner: Clay Buchholz, BOS
Runner-up: CC Sabathia, NYY
Result:
Winner: Justin Verlander, DET
Runner-up: Jered Weaver, LAA
Percentage Correct:
0/2 (0%)
Explanation:
This one didn’t work out as I wanted, as I went out on a limb on Buchholz. Not only did he get injured, he struggled beforehand. Bad pick.

AL Rookie of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: JP Arencibia, TOR
Runner-up: Brent Morel, CWS
Result:
Winner: Jeremy Hellickson, TB
Runner-up: Mark Trumbo, LAA
Percentage Correct:
0/2 (0%)
Explanation:
This is always a tough award to predict, but Arencibia was highly disappointing.

NL East:

Prediction:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves (wild card)
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

Result:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. New York Mets
5. Florida Marlins

Percentage Correct:
3/5, 60%

Explanation:
I was awesome on this division. First one over 50%. Yes!

NL Central:

Prediction:
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Result:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals (wild card)
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros

Percentage Correct:
0/6 (0%)

Explanation:
Oh, man. That was bad. I don’t even want to talk about this one. 0 for 6.

NL West:

Prediction:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Result:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Rockies

Percentage Correct:
1/5 (20%)

Explanation:
Despite the percentage, I feel pretty good about this division, as nobody could’ve predicted the Diamondbacks’ run. Also, I didn’t jump on the Colorado bandwagon like everybody else was.

NL MVP:
Prediction:
Winner: Ryan Braun, MIL
Runner-up: Jay Bruce, CIN
Result:
Winner: Ryan Braun, MIL
Runner-up: Matt Kemp, LAD
Percentage Correct:
1/2 (50%)
Explanation:
I got this one right.

NL Cy Young:
Prediction:
Winner: Roy Halladay, PHI
Runner-up: Cliff Lee, PHI
Result:
Winner: Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Runner-up: Roy Halladay, PHI
Percentage Correct:
1/2 (50%)
Explanation:
Since my 1 and 2 finished 2 and 3, I feel pretty good about this one.

NL Rookie of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: Freddie Freeman, ATL
Runner-up: Brandon Belt, SF
Result:
Winner: Craig Kimbrel, ATL
Runner-up: Freddie Freeman, ATL
Percentage Correct:
1/2 (50%)
Explanation:
Yet another successful NL Awards prediction. I was great with those last year, too.

Playoffs:

ALDS Predictions:
Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers over New York Yankees

ALDS Results:
Texas Rangers over Tampa Bay Rays
Detroit Tigers over New York Yankees

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 2/4, 50%
Series Results: 1/2, 50%

Explanation:
Not bad, not bad. Too bad I bought into the Sox.

NLDS Predictions:
Philadelphia Phillies over Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves

NLDS Results:
Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 1/4, 25%
Series Results: 0/2, 0%

Explanation:
This is embarrassing.

ALCS Prediction:
Boston Red Sox over Texas Rangers

ALCS Result:
Texas Rangers over Detroit Tigers

Percentage Correct:
Teams 1/2, 50%
Series Results: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
I will never again pick against my team.

NLCS Prediction:
Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds

NLCS Result:
St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 0/2, 0%
Series Result: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
This was a very surprising NLCS, so I don’t blame myself for not predicting it.

World Series Prediction:
Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox

World Series Result:
St. Louis Cardinals over Texas Rangers

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 0/2, 0%
Series Result: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
I went with the common prediction, the Phillies and Sox, and it came back to bite me. The popular predictions never come to be.

Overall Percentage Correct:
16/63 (25%)

Come back next week for offseason analysis.