Pre-Season Predictions vs. Results

This week I will compare my preseason predictions with what ended up happening.

AL East:

Prediction:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees (wild card)
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Result:
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays (wild card)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Percentage Correct:
1/5 (20%)

Explanation:
I bought into the Red Sox hype coming into the year, and so their late-season collapse really hurt me here. Also, the Rays huge comeback hurt me, as I figured there was no way they’d be any good after losing Garza, Pena, Crawford, and Bartlett.

AL Central:

Prediction:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

Result:
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

Percentage Correct:
1/5 (20%)

Explanation:
Wow, was Minnesota bad. They won the division last year and basically returned the exact same team. However, almost every single one of their pitchers pitched worse than last year, and Mauer was injured and out most of it. Also, I learned never to buy into the White Sox. Too old.

AL West:

Prediction:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Seattle Mariners

Result:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

Percentage Correct:
2/4 (50%)

Explanation:
I actually did pretty well predicting this division.

AL MVP:
Prediction:
Winner: Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
Runner-up: Robinson Cano, NYY
Result:
Winner: Justin Verlander, DET
Runner-up: Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
Percentage Correct:
0/2 (0%)
Explanation:
I didn’t get either right, but my predictions weren’t terrible as they finished 6th and 7th in voting.

AL Cy Young:
Prediction:
Winner: Clay Buchholz, BOS
Runner-up: CC Sabathia, NYY
Result:
Winner: Justin Verlander, DET
Runner-up: Jered Weaver, LAA
Percentage Correct:
0/2 (0%)
Explanation:
This one didn’t work out as I wanted, as I went out on a limb on Buchholz. Not only did he get injured, he struggled beforehand. Bad pick.

AL Rookie of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: JP Arencibia, TOR
Runner-up: Brent Morel, CWS
Result:
Winner: Jeremy Hellickson, TB
Runner-up: Mark Trumbo, LAA
Percentage Correct:
0/2 (0%)
Explanation:
This is always a tough award to predict, but Arencibia was highly disappointing.

NL East:

Prediction:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves (wild card)
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

Result:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. New York Mets
5. Florida Marlins

Percentage Correct:
3/5, 60%

Explanation:
I was awesome on this division. First one over 50%. Yes!

NL Central:

Prediction:
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Result:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals (wild card)
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros

Percentage Correct:
0/6 (0%)

Explanation:
Oh, man. That was bad. I don’t even want to talk about this one. 0 for 6.

NL West:

Prediction:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Result:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Rockies

Percentage Correct:
1/5 (20%)

Explanation:
Despite the percentage, I feel pretty good about this division, as nobody could’ve predicted the Diamondbacks’ run. Also, I didn’t jump on the Colorado bandwagon like everybody else was.

NL MVP:
Prediction:
Winner: Ryan Braun, MIL
Runner-up: Jay Bruce, CIN
Result:
Winner: Ryan Braun, MIL
Runner-up: Matt Kemp, LAD
Percentage Correct:
1/2 (50%)
Explanation:
I got this one right.

NL Cy Young:
Prediction:
Winner: Roy Halladay, PHI
Runner-up: Cliff Lee, PHI
Result:
Winner: Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Runner-up: Roy Halladay, PHI
Percentage Correct:
1/2 (50%)
Explanation:
Since my 1 and 2 finished 2 and 3, I feel pretty good about this one.

NL Rookie of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: Freddie Freeman, ATL
Runner-up: Brandon Belt, SF
Result:
Winner: Craig Kimbrel, ATL
Runner-up: Freddie Freeman, ATL
Percentage Correct:
1/2 (50%)
Explanation:
Yet another successful NL Awards prediction. I was great with those last year, too.

Playoffs:

ALDS Predictions:
Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers over New York Yankees

ALDS Results:
Texas Rangers over Tampa Bay Rays
Detroit Tigers over New York Yankees

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 2/4, 50%
Series Results: 1/2, 50%

Explanation:
Not bad, not bad. Too bad I bought into the Sox.

NLDS Predictions:
Philadelphia Phillies over Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves

NLDS Results:
Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 1/4, 25%
Series Results: 0/2, 0%

Explanation:
This is embarrassing.

ALCS Prediction:
Boston Red Sox over Texas Rangers

ALCS Result:
Texas Rangers over Detroit Tigers

Percentage Correct:
Teams 1/2, 50%
Series Results: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
I will never again pick against my team.

NLCS Prediction:
Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds

NLCS Result:
St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 0/2, 0%
Series Result: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
This was a very surprising NLCS, so I don’t blame myself for not predicting it.

World Series Prediction:
Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox

World Series Result:
St. Louis Cardinals over Texas Rangers

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 0/2, 0%
Series Result: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
I went with the common prediction, the Phillies and Sox, and it came back to bite me. The popular predictions never come to be.

Overall Percentage Correct:
16/63 (25%)

Come back next week for offseason analysis.