Sunday, February 05, 2012

Jon Daniels Trade Analysis Part 5

This week I’m posting an update to my Jon Daniels Trade Analysis series, rating each trade from May 15th of 2010 through the end of the 2011 season as a win, loss, or draw. This is the 5th part of the series. Please see the 5/15/10 post for the previous entry in this series.

One thing that’s tough about analyzing these recent trades is trying to project what prospects might do in the future. So I didn’t do that, meaning I’m scoring each trade on the basis of the impact at the major league level as of today, because impact at the major league level is ultimately how each trade will be judged. That means that many of the scores will probably change sometime in the future.

7/1/10 Acquired C Bengie Molina from the San Francisco Giants for RHP Michael Main and RHP Chris Ray.

Win – Neither Bengie or Chris Ray did very well statistically the rest of the regular season with their new teams, with Bengie .240 with 2 home runs and 19 RBIs with the Rangers (although he did hit for a cycle during that time). Ray had a 4.13 ERA in his time with the Giants after pitching well with the Rangers. The difference between the two is the playoffs, as Chris didn’t play in any series, while Molina played very well during the postseason. Overall, Bengie had a .293 playoff ERA with 2 home runs and 8 RBIs, but he really dominated the first two rounds, hitting .357 in the ALDS and .313 in the ALCS. Bengie also brought some important intangibles in his handling of the Rangers pitching staff, both during the regular season and the postseason. Neither player returned to the teams they were traded to in 2011, as Molina retired, and Ray signed with Seattle.

Jon Daniel’s Cumulative Record: 21-7-17

7/9/10 Acquired LHP Cliff Lee and RHP Mark Lowe from the Seattle Mariners for 1B Justin Smoak, RHP Blake Beavan, RHP Josh Lueke, and 2B Matt Lawson.

Win – This one is a no-brainer as Cliff carried the Rangers on his back and got them to the World Series. Even though he was only a Ranger for half of a season, and didn’t even do all that well in the regular season (3.98 ERA), what he did in the ALDS and ALCS makes it to where no matter what Justin Smoak does as a Mariner, this trade is a win. In the ALDS, Cliff posted a 1.13 ERA and had 2 wins, including a complete game victory over Tampa Bay in Game 5. In the ALCS, Lee had a 0.00 ERA, and threw 8 shutout innings in his only outing. And even though he struggled in the World Series, his playoff performance was spectacular. Also, Mark Lowe, the other piece the Rangers got in the trade had a pretty solid year in 2011, with a 3.80 ERA in 45 innings. And it’s not like Smoak has done much yet, either, as he only hit .234 with Seattle last year. Blake Beavan did have a solid 2011 season, though, as he had a 4.27 ERA in 97 innings pitched in his first major league appearances. Josh Lueke also made the majors last year, but with not quite as much success, as he had a 6.06 ERA in 32.2 innings, and is now with the Rays.

Record: 22-7-17

7/30/10 Acquired 1B Jorge Cantu from the Florida Marlins for RHP Omar Poveda and RHP Evan Reed.

Draw – This trade, while seeming great at the time, ended up being meaningless, as Cantu stunk with the Rangers, hitting .235 with 1 home run and 2 RBIs in 98 at-bats in the regular season, and going 0-for-8 in the playoffs. Neither Poveda or Reed have made the majors yet.

Record: 22-7-18

7/31/10 Acquired RHP Roman Mendez and 1B Christopher McGuiness from the Boston Red Sox for C Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Draw – While Jarrod is playing a lot of innings with Boston, and neither Mendez or McGuiness have made the big league team (and McGuiness never will), this trade is a draw for the Rangers. Salty had solid power numbers last year, with 16 home runs and 56 RBIs, but also hit just .235 and played awful defense. On top of that, the Rangers would have had no room for him on the team with both Napoli and Torrealba.

Record: 22-7-19

7/31/10 Acquired 2B Christian Guzman from the Washington Nationals for RHP Ryan Tatusko and RHP Tanner Roark.

Draw – Neither Tatusko or Roark have reached the majors yet, and Guzman was poor as a Ranger, hitting .152 in 46 at-bats, and not even making a playoff appearance.

Record: 22-7-20

8/31/10 Acquired RF Jeff Francoeur from the New York Mets for 2B Joaquin Arias.

Win – This was a big-time win in two ways: we got Jeff, and we finally got rid of Arias. Thank goodness. Francoeur played pretty well for the Rangers in September, hitting .340 with 2 home runs and 11 RBIs as a Ranger, and while he struggled in the playoffs, he was still a good addition to the team. Also, we finally got Joaquin Arias out of the organization, and surprise, surprise, he has struggled in his major league at-bats since the trade.

Record: 23-7-20

1/8/11 Acquired RHP Ryan Tucker from Oakland Athletics for RHP Guillermo Moscoso.

Loss – While both players made major league appearances in 2011, only Moscoso pitched well. Tucker posted a 7.20 ERA in 5 innings, while Moscoso had a 3.38 ERA in 128 innings for the A’s, and pitched really well, holding opponents to a .212 batting average despite his 8-10 record. Guillermo is now with the Rockies.

Record: 23-8-20

1/25/11 Acquired C Mike Napoli from the Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Frank Francisco and cash.

Win – Win is an understatement in this trade, as Mike Napoli was clutch for the Rangers, both offensively and defensively. And all they had to give up to get him was an above-average relief pitcher. While Frankie had a 3.55 ERA with Toronto last year, Napoli was tearing it up with the Rangers, hitting .320 with 30 home runs and 75 RBIs. Napoli also tore it up in the playoffs, hitting .328 with 3 home runs and 15 RBIs. Plus his defense and handling of the pitching staff were top-notch.

Record: 24-8-20

3/28/11 Traded C Matt Treanor to the Kansas City Royals for cash.

Draw – This trade only happened because the Rangers had told Matt that he would have a big league spot when they signed him, but that wasn’t going to happen after they traded for Napoli. The Rangers ended up trading to get Treanor back, anyways.

Record: 24-8-21

7/19/11 Acquired SS Nick Green from the Baltimore Orioles for LHP Zach Phillips.

Draw – Phillips only threw 8 innings for Baltimore last year, and although he did well, 8 innings is not enough to make a trade a win or a loss. Green never made it to the majors with the Rangers.

Record: 24-8-22

7/31/11 Acquired RHP Koji Uehara from the Baltimore Orioles for 1B Chris Davis and RHP Tommy Hunter.

Loss – Koji was absolutely awful with the Rangers last year, and in fact did so poorly the Rangers are trying hard to get rid of him in a trade right now. After having a 1.72 ERA with the Orioles the first half of the season, Koji got to Texas and had a 4.00 regular season ERA, and then a 33.75 postseason ERA and got left off of the World Series roster. And, no, that 33.75 ERA is not a typo. 33.75. And to get him, the Rangers gave up two guys who have starting spots with Baltimore. Davis is currently the Oriole’s starting third baseman after hitting .276 after the trade last year, and Hunter is penciled into their starting rotation for now, despite having a 5.06 ERA with Baltimore last year.

Record: 24-9-22

7/31/11 Acquired RHP Mike Adams from the San Diego Padres for RHP Joe Wieland and LHP Robbie Erlin.

Win – This win is definitely as of right now, as Wieland and Erlin are currently the #7 and #8 prospects in the Padres organization and could be very good big league pitchers. But so far, neither of them have made the majors yet, and Mike Adams pitched very well for the Rangers last year, with a 2.10 regular season ERA with Texas and a 3.24 playoff ERA. Uehara may not have lived up to the hype, but Adams sure did, and Mike helped the Rangers make it to their second straight World Series.

Record: 25-9-22

8/18/11 Acquired RHP Tim Wood from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named later.

Draw – Wood has not pitched in the majors with the Rangers.

Record: 25-9-23

8/31/11 Acquired LHP Mike Gonzalez from the Baltimore Orioles for a RHP Pedro Strop.

Win – Mike was a very good pitcher for the Rangers coming out of the bullpen, even though his numbers might not show it. He did a good job as a lefty specialist, but had a 5.14 ERA with the Rangers. However, that did improve in the playoffs, as his postseason ERA was 4.15. And while Pedro did do very well in Baltimore, with a 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings pitched, he was not going to have any role with the Rangers.

Record: 26-9-23

8/31/11 Acquired C Matt Treanor from the Kansas City Royals for cash considerations.

Draw – Matt went 0-for-10 with the Rangers after the trade and had no playoff appearances.

Record: 26-9-24

Updated Comparison of Trades by Rangers General Managers:

Tom Grieve:
Record: 10-13-28
Winning percentage: 43%
Number of trades: 51 in 11 years (average of 4.6 trades per year)

Doug Melvin:
Record: 15-14-16
Winning percentage: 52%
Number of trades: 45 in 7 years (average of 6.4 trades per year)

John Hart:
Record: 7-11-18
Winning percentage: 39%
Number of trades: 36 in 4 years (average of 9 trades per year)

Jon Daniels:
Record: 26-9-24
Winning percentage: 74%
Number of trades: 59 in 6 years (average of 9.8 trades per year)

Come back next week for offseason analysis.

1 comment:


Love reading your blog and your opinions.

You may have to go back and change some of your scoring on these trades come mid-season. As an example, Koji has been awful but there's reason to believe he's going to be a lot better in 2012.