Sunday, October 28, 2007

Jon Daniels Trade Analysis Part 2 and GM Comparison

This is an updated analysis of the trades Jon Daniels has made as Rangers GM. I’ll be reviewing all trades he made after September 1, 2006 (see my 12/9/06 blog for analysis of his trades before then). Each trade will be scored a win, loss, or tie. At the end, I’ll compare Jon’s record so far to John Hart’s and Doug Melvin’s.

21. 12-7-06 Acquired minor league C Salomon Manriquez from Colorado in exchange for cash considerations.

Win – Any time you get a decent player for cash (which isn’t even promised in this deal), it’s a win. Manriquez played for Frisco this year, batting .275 with 16 homers and 53 RBI. He should get an invitation to major league spring training again next year.

Record: 10-4-7

22. 12-23-06 Acquired RHP Brandon McCarthy and OF David Paisano from the White Sox in exchange for LHP John Danks, RHP Nick Masset and RHP Jacob Rasner.

Win - John Danks has great potential, but this year had a 6-13 record and a 5.50 ERA for the White Sox. He only pitched 139 innings. Nick Masset had a 2-3 record and a 7.09 ERA in 39.1 innings this year for the White Sox, but he also has good potential. Jacob Rasner for the single-A Kannapolis Intimidators had a 7-11 record with a 6.83 ERA in 139.2 innings pitched, and does not have much potential. None of the players we traded away had very good years, the lowest ERA being 5.50. But Paisano played awful for the Lumberkings (single-A), batting .203 with 3 HR and 20 RBI’s in 306 at-bats. He also struck-out 85 times. His only good stat was 20 stolen bases. McCarthy started the season off terribly and ended the season with a blister on his middle finger, but in the 101.2 innings he did pitch, he managed to lower his ERA to 4.87 and pick up five wins with ten losses. It’s still too early to really tell, but based on last year’s performances; I’d say that it’s barely a win.

Record: 11-4-7

23. 1-12-07 Acquired C Chris Stewart from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP John Lujan.

Win – Chris Stewart isn’t a great batter, as for the Rangers last year he had a .300 OBP and a .243 AVG and for the Redhawks (triple-A) he had a .294 OBP and a .242 AVG. But he fields very well, as with the Rangers last year he threw out 50% of base-stealers and made 2 errors in 105.1 innings caught. He had a .981 fielding percentage. John doesn’t have that much potential but this year’s stats were very good. John had a 3.73 ERA with 11 saves and 90 strike-outs in 82 innings.

Record: 12-4-7

24. 4-19-07 Traded LHP Daniel Haigwood to Boston for RHP Scott Shoemaker and cash considerations.

Win - Daniel Haigwood struggled with the Red Sox, with a 4-5 record and a 5.31 ERA between Pawtucket (triple-A) and Portland (double-A). Scott Shoemaker went 7-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 111.2 innings pitched between Portland (double-A), Bakersfield (high-A), Oklahoma (triple-A), and Frisco (double-A).

Record: 13-4-7

25. 7-27-07 Traded OF Kenny Lofton to the Indians for nonroster C Max Ramirez

Win – Kenny Lofton’s contract was expiring after this year anyway and Max Ramirez had good stats, batting .304 with 16 HR and 82 RBI between Kinston (high-A) and Bakersfield (high-A). Ramirez will be in the mix for the Rangers’ catcher of the future.

Record: 14-4-7

26. 7-31-07 Acquired C/1B Jarrod Saltalamacchia, nonroster SS Elvis Andrus, nonroster LHP Matt Harrison, nonroster LHP Beau Jones and nonroster RHP Neftali Feliz from the Braves in exchange for 1B Mark Teixeira and LHP Ron Mahay

Win - Even though Mark is a great player and has done great for the Rangers, he was going to be gone after next year and so they had to trade him. Ron Mahay had been with the Rangers since 2003, with ERA’s of 3.18, 2.55, 6.81, 3.95, and 2.77. Jarrod Saltalamacchia was ranked the 36th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America at the beginning of the year and was also ranked the best prospect in the NL East. Elvis Andrus only hit .257 this year but he probably is the best fielder in all of the Rangers’ minor league system. Elvis was also ranked the 65th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America at the beginning of the year. This year Harrison was 5-7 with a 3.39 ERA in 116.2 IP and last year he was 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA in 158.2 IP. Matt was ranked the 90th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America at the beginning of the year. Beau Jones has a good fastball and a very good curveball but awful control as he has walked 121 batters over the last two years. Neftali was 2-2 with a 2.55 ERA in 42.1 innings this year. But he also has 55 strike-outs. Neftali was ranked the 14th best prospect in all of the Rangers minor league system by Baseball America. This was a great trade because we got some top prospects in exchange for players that weren’t going to be with us much longer.

Record: 15-4-7

27. 7-31-07 Acquired LHP Kason Gabbard, OF David Murphy and nonroster OF Engel Beltre from the Red Sox for RHP Eric Gagne and cash

Win – Kason Gabbard is a talented lefty who should be pretty good for us. This year Gabbard went 6-1 with a 4.65 ERA between Boston and Texas. David Murphy played great, hitting .340 with 2 HR and 14 RBI. Engel Beltre has great raw potential but it is very raw. Engel hit .243 with 9 HR and 29 RBI for the year. Eric Gagne pitched awful after leaving the Rangers with a 2-2 record and a 6.75 ERA and 3 out of 3 save opportunities were blown for the Red Sox.

Record: 16-4-7

Comparison:

Doug Melvin:
Record: 15-14-16
Winning percentage: 52%
Number of trades: 45 in 7 years (average of 6.4 trades per year)
Rangers record during Melvin years: 568-548 (.509 winning percentage)

John Hart:Record: 7-11-18
Winning percentage: 39%
Number of trades: 36 in 4 years (average of 9 trades per year)
Rangers record during Hart years: 311-337 (.480 winning percentage)

Jon Daniels:
Record: 16-4-7
Winning percentage: 80%
Number of trades: 27 in 2 years (average of 13.5 trades per year)
Rangers record during Daniels years: 155-169 (.478 winning percentage)

Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think is the best player the Rangers got in 2001?
Justin Duchscherer – 84%
Rob Bell – 11%
Erasmo Ramirez – 5%
All others – 0%

Come back next week for my playoff awards.

2 comments:

Ken Pittman said...

Interesting and good blog. I think you have looked at Daniels trades in a little different way from the others, but I don't think you had a choice but to do it the way you did. I think you have made the reasoning for the trade more important than the outcome for the Daniels trades because the outcome is still somewhat up in the air for many of them. But the former GM's the outcome is more well known and not too many people remember what the reasoning is (expiring contracts, etc.). For example, if the Lofton-Ramirez trade was 10 years ago and Ramirez never amounted to anything, it would be a loss because Lofton was part of a successful late-season playoff run. And we would have probably not remembered Lofton's contract was expiring. But since we remember that and Ramirez still has so much potential, I agree it's a win for both teams right now. I think a few of the 'wins' will eventually turn in to losses because some prospects won't work out for us / will work out for the other team, but overall I agree with most of your ratings. Keep it up.

Enjoying your blog as always,
Ken

grantlovesbaseball said...

Hi Ken,

Thanks for the nice comment. It is harder to analyze trades when they are newer. You made a good point. You're right that I had to guess more with Jon than with Melvin and Hart.

Thanks again.

Grant