Saturday, September 13, 2008

NL Predictions

This week I analyzed all of the NL divisions and made predictions for how the season and playoffs will end up.

NL West:
Los Angeles Dodgers 88-74
Arizona D’Backs 79-83
San Francisco Giants 73-89
Colorado Rockies 72-90
San Diego Padres 61-101

The Dodgers are hot right now, 9-1 in September and 11-1 in their last 12 games. I think they will continue their run and go 12-3 the rest of the year. The D’Backs have gone cold, going 3-7 in September and 4-13 in their last 17 games. I think that they will also continue their stretch throughout the rest of the season. The Rockies have a very tough schedule, and so do the Giants, but I think the Giants (who are just 0.5 games behind the Rockies right now) will overcome the Rockies for 3rd in the division. The Padres have a tough schedule, and really, just aren’t very good, with a 57-91 record right now (September 13th).

NL Central:
Chicago Cubs 97-65
Houston Astros 92-70
Milwaukee Brewers 90-72
St. Louis Cardinals 88-74
Cincinnati Reds 70-92
Pittsburgh Pirates 65-97

The Cubs are cold right now, going 3-7 in their last 10, but with a 5.5 game lead over the Brewers, (who I think the Astros will pass) it would be amazing if the Cubs lost the division title. The Brewers are also cold, going 3-7 in their last 10, while the Astros are hot, going 9-1 in their last 10. They’ve won six straight, and have a 35-16 record since the All-Star break. I think the Astros will play the rest of the year 12-3 and that the BrewCrew will go 7-8 to finish the year. The Cardinals have a fairly easy schedule and will probably get closer in the Wild Card, but not close enough. The Reds and Pirates probably have the toughest schedule in the division for the remainder of the season, and will struggle.

NL East:
New York Mets 92-70
Philadelphia Phillies 91-73
Florida Marlins 81-81
Atlanta Braves 70-92
Washington Nationals 60-102

Both the Mets and Phillies have very easy schedules, but the Mets have a four-game series with the Cubs, while the Phillies play the Braves, Marlins, and Nationals for the rest of the year. I think the Phillies will creep back a little, but will fall just a game shy of tying the Mets for first place. The Marlins play the Nationals twice, but play both the Phillies and Mets once and then play the Astros in a three-game set where I think they’ll get swept. The Braves play nothing but the Phillies, Mets, and Astros the rest of the year, so they should struggle mightily. The Padres are the only losing team that the Nationals face and since they’re the Nationals and they’re only 4-6 in their last 10, the Nats should struggle to get five wins the remainder of the season.

NL Divisional Series:

Dodgers vs. Cubs: Dodgers win 3-2

Astros vs. Mets: Astros win 3-1

NL Championship Series:

Dodgers vs. Astros: Astros win 4-2:
Both teams are hot right now, but the Astros are hotter and have already been-there-done-that in the National League when they lost the World Series to the White Sox. Manny will do well, but it won’t be enough.

World Series:

Astros vs. Angels: Angels win 4-3:
The Astros will be hot, but they don’t have the great pitching rotation that the Angels do or K-Rod. The Astros hitting can match up to the Angels, but the pitching can’t. The Angels will have a rotation of John Lackey (2002 World Series champion), Joe Saunders and Jon Garland (2005 World Series champion). The Astros will have Roy Oswalt, Brandon Backe, and Randy Wolf. It just doesn’t match up. The Astros will put up a fight, but won’t win.

Results of last week’s poll:
Who do you think will be the AL Wild Card?
Red Sox – 50%
Rays – 21%
Twins – 21%
White Sox – 7%
Yankees – 0%
Other – 0%

Come back next week for Part 8 of my Tom Grieve Trade Analysis.


Ken Pittman said...

Wow Grant - that's some bold predictions. A team that is 2.5 games out of the wild card right now (with 15 games left) making it to the World Series? It could happen, but I couldn't make myself predict it. I could see the BrewCrew losing their grip on the wild card, but even if they did (which I think is about 50-50), it's only about 50-50 that the Astros would get in over the Phillies in my mind.

I think the Cubs will beat the Dodgers (or the Phillies if they squeak in).

I think the BrewCrew/Astros/Dodgers will beat the Mets.

I like the Cubs for the NL champs. I know they've been cool lately, but they have the best pitching.

I agree with you on the Angels winning it all. They are simply the best all-around team in baseball right now.

Ken Pittman said...

I forgot to mention that I do HOPE you are right about the Astros. I would love to see them sneak up and win everything.

grantlovesbaseball said...

Hi Ken,
Now I agree with you that the Astros are out, although I think the Phillies will win the NL East and the Mets will be the Wild Card. I have the Cubs beating the Mets and the Dodgers/Phillies series up for grabs and the Cubs beating whoever they play.