Saturday, December 09, 2006

Jon Daniels Trade Analysis and Comparison with John Hart Trades

This is an analysis of the trades Jon Daniels has made as Rangers GM. Each trade will be scored a win, loss, or draw. The score is based on how each player contributed to the Rangers at the major league level. These are graded as of today. Some of them are too recent to really evaluate. At the end, I’ll compare Jon’s record so far to John Hart’s.

2005:

1. November 16: Acquired RHP Jon Leicester from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later (Clint Brannon).
Draw – Neither player has done anything for these teams at the major league level.
Record: 0-0-1

2. December 8: Acquired LHP Fabio Castro, for INF Esteban German.
Win – Castro is a really good player. German is good but not as good. Anyway, behind Kinsler, German wasn’t going to get playing time anytime soon.
Record: 1-0-1

3. December 12: Acquired RHP Vicente Padilla from the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later (Ricardo Rodriguez).
Win – Padilla has proved to be a really good pitcher. Rodriguez ended up being dropped by the Phillies. Plus, if we didn’t have Padilla last year, we probably wouldn’t have him this year.
Record: 2-0-1

4. December 13: Acquired OF Brad Wilkerson, OF Terrmel Sledge and RHP Armando Galarraga from the Washington Nationals in exchange for INF Alfonso Soriano.
Loss – Soriano ended up having a terrific year. Wilkerson had an awful year. Galarraga got injured and Sledge immediately got traded.
Record: 2-1-1

2006:

5. January 4: Acquired RHP Adam Eaton, RHP Akinori Otsuka and C Billy Killian in exchange for RHP Chris Young, 1B Adrian Gonzalez and OF Terrmel Sledge.
Loss – Eaton got injured and pitched awful when he got back and Killian’s in the minors. Young had a career year and Gonzalez did great. Gonzalez wouldn’t play 1st but would’ve been a good DH. Otsuka has been great but not as good as Young and Gonzalez.
Record: 2-2-1

6. March 31: Acquired LHP John Rheinecker and INF Freddie Bynum from the Oakland A's in exchange for RHP Juan Dominguez
Win – Dominguez had an awful year and has a bad attitude and Rheinecker ended up pitching well.
Record: 3-2-1

7. March 31: Sent INF Freddy Bynum to the Chicago Cubs for LHP John Koronka and a player to be named later or cash considerations. I can’t tell if we ever sent another player to the Cubs.
Win – Koronka did great the 1st half of the year and Bynum didn’t do anything.
Record: 4-2-1

8. April 1: Traded David Dellucci to Philadelphia for RHP Robinson Tejeda and OF Jake Blalock
Win – Tejeda looks to be a pretty promising pitcher while Dellucci had a down year.
Record: 5-2-1

9. May 11: Acquired OF Freddy Guzman and nonroster RHP Cesar Rojas from the San Diego Padres for nonroster RHP John Hudgins and nonroster OF Vince Sinisi.
Draw – Neither team has gotten much major league contribution.
Record: 5-2-2

10. May 13: Acquired INF Enrique Cruz and a player to be named later (ended up being cash) from the Milwaukee Brewers for LHP Brian Shouse.
Loss – Cruz stayed in the minors all year. Shouse had a 3.97 ERA in 59 games for the Brewers.
Record: 5-3-2

11. May 31: Acquired INF/OF Jerry Hairston, Jr. from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for INF Phil Nevin and cash considerations.
Win – Nevin continued playing awfully while we got some good (and sometimes bad) defense out of Hairston.
Record: 6-3-2

12. June 1: Acquired nonroster 1B Jason Hart from the Twins for a PTBN. I can’t tell if we ever sent anyone to the Twins.
Draw – Neither team got any major league contribution.
Record: 6-3-3

13. June 29: Acquired LHP Daniel Haigwood and cash considerations from the Philadelphia Phillies for LHP Fabio Castro.
Loss – Castro had great potential while Haigwood doesn’t have nearly as much potential.
Record: 6-4-3

14. July 28: Acquired OF Carlos Lee and OF Nelson Cruz from Milwaukee in exchange for RHP Francisco Cordero, OFs Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix and nonroster LHP Julian Cordero.
Win – We filled Cordero’s spot with Otsuka and Mench wasn’t doing well. Nix hasn’t been good in the major leagues so far and Julian Cordero is a minor prospect. Cruz has outstanding potential. We didn’t get much out of Lee though and now he’s gone.
Record: 7-4-3

15. July 30: Acquired RHP Luis Mendoza from Boston for LHP Bryan Corey.
Draw – Corey had pitched great for us at the beginning but had already been designated for assignment when traded, so it was good to get something for him. Mendoza’s a regular minor leaguer. Corey had 16 appearances for Boston with a 4.57 ERA.
Record: 7-4-4

16. July 30: Acquired C Miguel Ojeda from Colorado for cash considerations.
Win – Ojeda played decently for us while all we had to do is send cash to Colorado. Ojeda might be the backup catcher in 2007.
Record: 8-4-4

17. July 31: Acquired OF Matt Stairs from the Royals for nonroster RHP Joselo Diaz.
Draw – Neither player did much for the teams.
Record: 8-4-5

18. July 31: Acquired RHP Kip Wells from Pittsburgh in exchange for nonroster RHP Jesse Chavez.
Win – Chavez hasn’t made the majors yet and isn’t much of a prospect, while we got a few good starts out of Wells before his injury.
Record: 9-4-5

19. August 30: Acquired OF Victor Diaz from the New York Mets for Minor League C Mike Nickeas.
Draw – Neither player has played in the majors since the trade. Neither has much potential to make a major league impact with their teams.
Record: 9-4-6

20. September 1: Traded Triple-A 1B Randall Simon to the Philadelphia Phillies for cash considerations.
Draw – Neither team got much at all.
Record: 9-4-7

Comparison between Hart and Daniels:

John Hart:
Record: 7-11-18
Percentage of trades that were wins: 19%
Number of trades: 36 in 4 years (average of 9 trades per year)

Jon Daniels:
Record: 9-4-7
Percentage of trades that were wins: 45%
Number of trades: 20 in 1 year

These stats lead me to think that Daniels is a better and more aggressive GM, while Hart is a laid back GM who does not make very good trades most of the time. Almost half of Hart’s trades didn’t make any difference.

Come back next week for a hot stove report special. Also coming up soon will be a write-up of the Q&A session at the Newberg Bound Edition release party.

11 comments:

David said...

Great analysis Grant. I'm sure Jon Daniels would enjoy your analysis. I'm not so sure John Hart would enjoy it as much, though.

I'm curious what you think of the Marlon Byrd and of the potential Kenny Lofton signings.

Kent said...

Good job, Grant. I appreciate your take on the Rangers.

I would say, though, that I think that Victor Diaz has a chance to play some for the Rangers if he is healthy. A couple years ago he was pretty good for the Mets. He and Marlon Byrd both have some decent upside. Let's hope that working with Rudy will bring it out in them.

grantlovesbaseball said...

Thanks for the nice comments. About Diaz, I'm just not sure about him. I think Rudy has a chance at making him a major leaguer but that it probably won't happen. I think it's more likely to happen with Byrd.

Ken Pittman said...

Great blog Grant. I hope Jon Daniels' trades look as good long-term as they do in the short term. But so far I agree with you that his trades are looking better than John Hart.

rangersorrobbers said...

Just found your blog and this is a great post. But the problem with your analysis is that you count all wins and losses equally. It's not that way. The bad Soriano trade is much worse than the bad Shouse trade. I like your slant, but suggest that ranking the the trades on scale of 1-9 (ie 1 is one of the worst trades ever and 9 is Hershel Walker to the Vikings relived) would provide a better analysis.

I think such an analysis would show that Daniels has not done well at all. Better than Hart (hard not to be), but really not good and certainly doesn't have the club heading in the right direction (check the outfield and the rotation still isn't close to championship caliper, for two examples).

http://rangersorrobbers.wordpress.com/

Larry Brown said...

Thanks for all the analysis. Problem is, just as rangersorrobbers points out, you weight all the trades equally. That's a fallacy. Daniels has lost in the three biggest and most important deals. I don't care how many small ones he comes out ahead in, losing his shirt with the Padres, Nats, and Brewers deals outweighs winning 20 small deals. He single-handedly set the franchise back five years with those three horrible trades.

jokersfull32 said...

I agree. While you may be correct in some of these trades working out and others not, you need to rank how well they work out. Like Tex being traded, bad trade because now we have a 27 minor league catcher at a position we're already deep at. Chris Young and Gonzalez, horrible trade. Traded away two potential allstars. Volquez 25years old, 3-0 1k avg per inning, bad trade. Danks, 9th overall pick with a 3 ERA for Brandon on the DL and two years older and non proven. Horrible trade. You should rank these on the severity of the trade, because your numbers of 9-4-7 are misleading. Plus, you have one guy that was considered a loss in a trade, being a win for getting rid of him. Plus the rangers have the worst record in baseball. I think that number is more important than the 9-4-7 record

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