Spring Training Infielders Analysis

The Rangers have 10 infielders in major league camp. I did an analysis of all the infielders in big league camp, gave their chances of making the team at the end of Spring Training, and predicted the infield roster. I’ve also included each player’s spring training stats as of this morning (March 10th).

Elvis Andrus (8-for-12, 2 RBI)
Elvis is going to be the Opening Day shortstop, no question. He has been great over his first three major league seasons, and last year posted career highs in batting average (.279), RBIs (60), stolen bases (37), runs (96), and hits (164), as well as a career low in strikeouts (74). Elvis should have an even better year this year than last, however, as his defense should improve after a 25-error season last year, and I think that he will come close to a 200-hit season.
Percentage: 100%

Adrian Beltre (4-for-11, 3 RBI)
Like Elvis, Adrian Beltre, barring an injury, will be in the starting lineup on Opening Day for sure. Last year Adrian put a stop to his reputation of being a player who only plays well in contract years, as he had one of the best seasons of his career. He hit .296, the third highest mark of his career, along with 32 home runs, the second most in his career, and 105 RBIs, also the second most in his career. Adrian will be the starting third baseman on Opening Day and should have another great year.
Percentage: 100%

Alberto Gonzalez (3-for-10, 3 RBI)
It’s not often that a non-roster invitee is the odds-on favorite to win a big league job, but that is the case here. The Rangers really don’t have any other middle infielders in big league camp that aren’t already big league starters, outside of fellow non-roster invites Luis Hernandez (who had 0 major league at-bats in 2011) and Greg Miclat (who has 0 career major league at-bats). However, Alberto is not a lock, as he hasn’t been a very good defensive shortstop over his career, with a .967 career fielding percentage at the position. Despite that poor career mark, he did have a .990 fielding percentage there last season, to go along with a .215 average and 32 RBIs.
Percentage: 71.8%

Brad Hawpe (0 ABs)
While Brad doesn’t have a great chance at making the Opening Day team, his window of opportunity is definitely widening with the poor play of Mitch Moreland at the beginning of Spring Training (he is 1-for-16 so far), on top of his bad postseason play (3-for-29 last year). Hawpe is currently recovering from a hamstring problem that has cost him the beginning of Spring Training, but he is expected to play soon. The Rangers hope that he can return to his 2006-2009 form, when he hit above .280 with 20+ home runs and 80+ RBIs every year, and not hit like his past two seasons, with batting averages below .250 and less than 10 homers. Brad could very well win the first base job.
Percentage: 34.6%

Luis Hernandez (2-for-8, 1 RBI)
Hernandez poses the only real threat to Alberto Gonzalez that is currently in the Rangers organization, but is an unlikely option, as he hasn’t played in the majors since 2010, with a season-ending foot surgery playing a big part of that last year. In 265 career at-bats, only 18 at-bats more than Gonzalez’ 2011 total, Luis has hit .245 with 3 homers and 20 RBIs. But, while Hernandez has less big league experience and isn’t as good of a hitter as Gonzalez, he is a better fielder, with a still-bad .977 career shortstop fielding percentage, which is a good .010 better than Alberto’s. Luis has also never made an error in 149 major league innings at second base, and his fielding is what gives him a chance to win the job.
Percentage: 32.5%

Ian Kinsler (3-for-14)
Kinsler is one of the top second basemen in all of baseball, and will make the Opening Day roster with no problems, as long as he can stay healthy through Spring Training. He is a two-time All-Star and should pick up a Gold Glove at some point in his career with his stellar defense. He hit 32 home runs for the Rangers last year hitting out of the leadoff spot, and had a .355 on-base-percentage in spite of a .255 batting average. Kinsler should have another outstanding year for the Rangers if he can stay on the field.
Percentage: 100%

Greg Miclat (2-for-10)
While Greg probably doesn’t have a very good shot at the Opening Day roster this year, as he has never been above Double-A, the former fifth-round pick out of Virginia has a chance to make the team at some point this year if Gonzalez and Hernandez don’t pan out. He has talent, as he hit .280 with a .371 OBP in 421 at-bats for Double-A Bowie in the Orioles farm system last year. He is a guy who could play a role for the Rangers in the near future, if not at some point this year.
Percentage: 12.3%

Mitch Moreland (1-for-16, 1 HR, 2 RBI)
Coming into the spring, Moreland was sitting pretty for the first base job, with his percentage probably in the 90s, despite his horrendous playoffs, where he hit .103 in 29 at-bats and committed 1 official error along with 2 or 3 more bad defensive plays. And that was after a very average season in which he hit .259 with 16 home runs and 51 RBIs. At this point, after starting the spring 1-for-16, the starting first base job is wide open for Hawpe, Conor Jackson, or Brandon Snyder to swoop in and take it from Moreland.
Percentage: 61.2%

Mike Olt (4-for-14)
Olt has really crashed onto the scene since getting drafted in 2010 out of UConn. He has played so well that he is now the #43 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America. He has never been above High-A so he has no chance at starting off the season in the majors, and as a third baseman, he will most likely have to change positions to either first or left to get out from behind Adrian Beltre. Olt hit .267 with 14 home runs and 42 RBIs with High-A Myrtle Beach last year while flashing a stellar glove in the field. Mike won’t be on the Opening Day roster, but he has a very bright future.
Percentage: 0.6%

Brandon Snyder (2-for-5, 3 RBI)
Snyder hasn’t lived up to hype of being a first round pick yet since being drafted in 2005 by the Orioles. So far in his career he has only 33 at-bats, and at age 25, he needs to get his career going soon. And with the rough start for Moreland so far this spring, Brandon has a chance to win the job and a chance to make the Opening Day roster. Last year in Triple-A, Brandon hit .261 with 14 home runs and 71 RBIs with the Norfolk Tide. With a good spring and some help, Brandon could be the starting first baseman on Opening Day.
Percentage: 30.1%

Projected Infield Lineup:
1B – Mitch Moreland
2B – Ian Kinsler
SS – Elvis Andrus
3B – Adrian Beltre
UTIL – Alberto Gonzalez (along with Michael Young of course, who I’ll cover in the Catchers/DH entry)

Come back in a few days for my Spring Training Catchers/DH Analysis.

Spring Training Pitchers Analysis Part 2

The Rangers have 32 pitchers in major league camp. Last week I did an analysis of the first 16 pitchers who are in big league camp and gave their chances of making the team at the end of Spring Training. I will do the same for the last 16 this week and have included each player’s stats from last year. I will also predict the pitching roster.

Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA, 169 K with Rangers in 2011)
Even though Colby had an ERA above 4.00 last year, Ron Washington has already named him the Opening Day starter. For the second straight year, Colby has 200+ innings and a solid to mediocre regular season ERA (3.72 in 2010, 4.40 in 2011), but then followed that up with outstanding postseasons (1.71 playoff ERA in 2010, 3.04 in 2011). He has piled up 4 career playoff wins to just one loss and a 2.34 career playoff ERA. There is no chance that he is left off the big league roster, barring an injury.
Percentage chance of making the Opening Day roster: 100%

Mark Lowe (45 IP, 3.80 ERA, 42 K with Rangers in 2011)
Mark put up solid numbers last year with the Rangers, with a 3.80 ERA, yet, as is the norm with him, was very inconsistent, with a 13.50 April ERA, an ERA of 0.87 in May, followed by ERAs from June to September of 4.50, 3.38, 3.27, and 4.91. So while Lowe may be a good pitcher, he is not a very dependable guy. And on top of that, he has been a horrendous postseason pitcher, as in just 1.2 playoff innings over the last two years, he has allowed 7 runs, all earned, which totals up to a 37.80 ERA. He will almost certainly make the team, but he isn’t a certainty to be on the roster all year long.
Percentage: 91.8%

Roman Mendez (9-1, 3.31 ERA, 130 K, 117 IP with High-A Hickory in 2011)
Even though Roman has never been past High-A and therefore has no chance of making the Opening Day roster, he has quickly turned into a very good prospect for the Rangers since coming over in the trade that sent Jarrod Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox. After a 5.73 season ERA in 2010, Mendez really turned it around, posting a 3.31 ERA in 2011, including a 2.85 ERA in the second half of the season. He has no chance at the roster to start off this season, but he could work his way up fast enough to have a chance to make the bigs and some point in 2013.
Percentage: 0%

Justin Miller (69.2 IP, 1.81 ERA, 77 K with Double-A Frisco in 2011)
One of five Justin Miller’s throughout the minor leagues, Justin dominated the Texas League, with a 1.81 ERA and a .185 opponent’s batting average. He really doesn’t have much of a chance at the big league team on Opening Day, but based on how well he pitched in Double-A last year, should start off the season at Triple-A, and could very well make it to the majors at some point this season.
Percentage: 2.3%

Joe Nathan (44.2 IP, 4.84 ERA, 43 K with Twins in 2011)
Despite a 4.84 ERA last year, and 0 innings pitched in 2010 due to Tommy John surgery, Nathan will enter this season as the Rangers Opening Day closer. He has overall had an outstanding career, with 261 career saves and a 2.87 career ERA, including ERAs of 2.70, 1.58, 1.88, 1.33, and 2.10 from ’05-’09. And after a poor start last year, Joe really picked it up after the All-Star break, with a 3.91 second half ERA, which was enough to convince the Rangers that he is ready to be a top-tier closer again.
Percentage: 100%

Alexi Ogando (169 IP, 3.51 ERA, 126 K with Rangers in 2011)
Even though Alexi was an All-Star as a starter last season, the Rangers are going to move him back to the bullpen for two main reasons: 1) Alexi wore down by the end of the year and 2) The Rangers want Neftali Feliz to be a starter this year. Ogando has plenty of experience with being a relief pitcher, as he threw 41.2 innings out of the bullpen in 2010, and was a reliever throughout both of the Rangers two playoff runs. He had a 1.30 ERA in 2010 as a reliever. He will no doubt make the Opening Day roster.
Percentage: 100%

Martin Perez (8-6, 4.33 ERA, 120 K, 137 IP with Triple-A Round Rock and Double-A Frisco in 2011)
Despite his 4.33 ERA last season, including a 6.43 Triple-A ERA, Martin is still considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and is still just 21 years old. He almost certainly won’t make the Opening Day roster, as not only is he not ready, but the Rangers want to break him into the big leagues as a starter, either in 2013 or 2014. However, chances are good that he will be called up in September to pitch out of the bullpen if Perez can have a more successful season with the Express than he did last year.
Percentage: 5.6%

Neil Ramirez (5-3, 3.12 ERA, 119 K, 98 IP with High-A Myrtle Beach, Double-A Frisco, and Triple-A Round Rock in 2011)
Like Perez, Neil Ramirez is one of the top prospects in the Rangers system, ranking #6 according to Baseball America. And even though he threw 74.1 innings in Triple-A last year, the odds are heavily stacked against him making the Opening Day roster. He will most likely start off the season with Round Rock, but may be called up fairly early on in the season to make his major league debut in a spot start for an injured starter if needed.
Percentage: 11.3%

Greg Reynolds (19.1 IP, 6.05 ERA, 10 K with Rockies in 2011)
Greg was acquired in the offseason from Colorado for 1B Chad Tracy, the son of Rockies manager Jim Tracy, and while he almost certainly won’t make the Opening Day roster, Reynolds will provide good depth in case of injury as he has pitched in the majors in four of the last five seasons. He will have to have an unbelievable Spring Training in order to avoid starting of the season in Triple-A.
Percentage: 13.6%

Robbie Ross (10-5, 2.34 ERA, 134 K, 161.1 IP with High-A Myrtle Beach and Double-A Frisco in 2011)
His presence in big league camp is mostly just to help with his development, as he has never pitched above Double-A in his career. Last year, Robbie pitched lights-out, with a 2.34 ERA between High-A and Double-A, and had an incredibly low 33 walks in 161.1 innings to go along with a fantastic 1.46 ground out to fly out ratio, along with yet another great statistic in opponents batting average, where he held opposing batters to a .228 average. On top of that, he held lefties to a .143 average while with Frisco. That stat is what gives him a chance of making the Opening Day roster if all goes wrong with the lefty specialist competition this spring. The Rangers would really like for him to start the season off in Double-A.
Percentage: 0.8%

Tanner Scheppers (43.2 IP, 3.71 ERA, 44 K with Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock in 2011)
For the second straight season, Tanner split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, this time with a little more success at the higher level. After a 5.48 Triple-A ERA in 2010, Scheppers improved that to a 4.35 ERA at that level in 2011. Tanner probably hasn’t had enough minor league success yet to have a great chance at the Opening Day roster, but with a great spring, he has a chance to take the last bullpen spot to start off the season.
Percentage: 23.1%

Ben Snyder (11-5, 3.87 ERA, 67 K, 118.2 IP with Double-A Frisco in 2011)
A Rule-5 draft pick a couple of years ago, Ben was turned into a starter halfway through last season, and really doesn’t have much of a chance at making the Opening Day team. Ben will most likely start off at Frisco for the third straight season, and is nowhere close to being major league ready, as he had a 4.15 ERA as a starter last year.
Percentage: 0%

Mitch Stetter (7 IP, 5.14 ERA, 7 K with Brewers in 2011)
Stetter is one of many pitchers battling it out for the lefty specialist job on the Rangers Opening Day roster, but as a non-roster invite with just 10.2 major league innings combined the past two seasons, he will need a great spring to win the job. He has, however, had success at the big league level, with ERAs of 3.20 and 3.60 in 2008 and 2009. Chances are Mitch will start the season at Round Rock and provide good depth, but he has a shot at the Opening Day team.
Percentage: 36.7%

Yoshinori Tateyama (44 IP, 4.50 ERA, 43 K with Rangers in 2011)
I hope I’m wrong, but unfortunately I think that Yoshi has a decent shot at making the team out of Spring Training. He is going to fight for the final bullpen spot along with Mark Hamburger, Cody Eppley, and Tanner Scheppers among others. Tateyama started off pitching very well when he was first called up to Texas, with a 1.80 May ERA, 4.50 June ERA, and 2.16 July ERA, but then imploded late in the season, allowing 13 runs, all earned, in his final 6 innings pitched, including grand slams on back-to-back pitches, something that had never been done before. I really don’t want to see him on the Opening Day roster, but with a good spring he could make it.
Percentage: 41.3%

Koji Uehara (65 IP, 2.35 ERA, 85 K with Orioles and Rangers in 2011)
Don’t let those numbers shown above fool you. Uehara was awful last year for the Rangers, posting a 4.00 ERA after being acquired in late July, and on top of his disappointing regular season stint, Uehara had a 33.75 postseason ERA, and no, that is not a typo. By his last couple of outings, Koji didn’t even seem interested in pitching, he had lost so much confidence. The Rangers owe him $4 million this year, but are looking to trade him, and I believe they will get a deal done. Even if he isn’t traded, with a bad spring, Koji still might not make the team.
Percentage: 49.6%

Matt West (27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 35 K with Short-Season-A Spokane and High-A Myrtle Beach in 2011)
Matt never had a chance at making the team out of Spring Training, as he still hasn’t had a full pro season yet, and now he really doesn’t have a chance, as he is now injured. The extent of the injury is not yet known. Matt got his career off to a good start last season, as he had a 3.00 ERA in his first pro baseball, and, depending on the injury, should have a bright future ahead of him.
Percentage: 0%

Projected Pitching Roster:
SP – Colby Lewis
SP – Derek Holland
SP – Yu Darvish
SP – Matt Harrison
SP – Neftali Feliz
Lefty Specialist – Michael Kirkman
Long Reliever/Innings Eater – Mark Hamburger
Long Reliever – Scott Feldman
Middle Reliever – Mark Lowe
Set-up Man – Alexi Ogando
Set-up Man – Mike Adams
Closer – Joe Nathan

Just Missed:
LHP Joe Beimel (45.6%)
RHP Cody Eppley (41.6%)
LHP Mitch Stetter (36.7%)
RHP Yoshinori Tateyama (41.3%)
RHP Koji Uehara (49.6%)

Come back next week for my catchers and infielders Spring Training Analysis.

Spring Training Pitchers Analysis Part 1

The Rangers have 32 pitchers in major league camp. I did an analysis of all of the pitchers who were in big league camp, gave their chances of making the team at the end of Spring Training, and will predict the pitching roster next week. I’ve also included each player’s stats from last year.

Mike Adams (73.2 IP, 1.47 ERA, 74 K with Padres and Rangers in 2011)
Adams is one of the top relievers in all of baseball, with a 2.11 career ERA, and a 1.47 2011 ERA. Mike did a great job as the Rangers set-up man after the trade last year and will fill that role again. He has not posted an ERA above 2.50 in any of his past four seasons, or one above 2.00 in any of his last three, and I expect that trend to continue.
Percentage chance of making the Opening Day roster: 100%

Joe Beimel (25.1 IP, 5.33 ERA, 17 K with Pirates in 2011)
Beimel, despite being a non-roster invitee, has a great chance of making the big league roster out of Spring Training, as with Darren Oliver gone and Mike Gonzalez still a free agent, the Rangers have no lefty bullpen pitchers that were good contributors to last year’s team. Joe, Michael Kirkman, Kelvin De La Cruz, and Mitch Stetter are the most likely candidates to be the lefty specialist to start off the year. Before last year, Joe had been pitching very well, with ERAs of 3.27, 2.96, 3.88, 2.02, 3.58, and 3.40 from 2005-2010, but then had his ERA rise by almost 2 full runs in 2011. If Joe can get close to where he was before last year than he will most likely be on the Opening Day roster.
Percentage: 45.6%

Jake Brigham (114.1 IP, 4.49 ERA, 114 K with Double-A Frisco in 2011)
Midway through last year the Rangers transitioned Jake into a reliever after being a starter his whole career, and the results were promising, as Jake’s 4.96 starters ERA was much higher than his 3.60 relievers ERA. This improvement led the Rangers to adding him to the 40-man roster in order to avoid having him be in the Rule 5 Draft. His 4.49 mark last season was his lowest ERA since the 2007 season when he was in Short-Season-A Spokane. However, despite his improvement since moving to the pen, he has almost no chance of making the Opening Day roster as he has never made it above Double-A.
Percentage: 1.8%

Fabio Castillo (52.1 IP, 6.36 ERA, 37 K with Double-A Frisco in 2011)
Fabio has absolutely no chance of making the big league roster at any point this season, barring a plethora of injuries to Rangers relievers. Castillo’s numbers fell off a cliff last year, as his 2.11 2010 ERA changed to a 6.36 2011 ERA. His batting average against went from .219 to .282 in just one season. He is most likely going to be one of the first players sent down to minor league camp.
Percentage: 0%

Yu Darvish (18-6, 1.44 ERA, 276 K with Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan in 2011)
Even though Yu has never thrown a major league pitch in America, there is no way that he won’t start off the season in the big leagues. Darvish is supposed to be the best pitcher to ever come out of Japan, and the Rangers bought in, giving both him and his former team a lot of dough. Yu is supposed to have up to seven pitches including a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. Darvish has the talent to be a true ace, and at age 25, is right in the prime of his career.
Percentage: 100%

Kelvin De La Cruz (86 IP, 4.19 ERA, 95 K with Double-A Akron in 2011)
Though it’s a long shot, seeing as he has never played above Double-A, and has had three straight years with ERAs over 4.00, Kelvin De La Cruz has a chance at the major league roster. However, last year’s 4.19 ERA is misleading, as his defense did nothing to help him, and Kelvin has an FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 3.54. The Rangers traded for him right before Spring Training after the Indians had DFA’d him, and since De La Cruz is a lefty, he is thrown into the lefty specialist competition as the most unlikely option. He will most likely start the year off at Triple-A.
Percentage: 10.4%

Miguel De Los Santos (94.2 IP, 5.04 ERA, 142 K with three different minor league teams in 2011)
Even though this is the second straight year that Miguel will be in big league camp, he still has no shot at making the team. De Los Santos has never made it above Double-A, where he struggled mightily last year, with a 8.04 ERA in 28 innings, and has a terrible groundout to flyout ratio at 0.46. While he has a high K per 9 ratio, Miguel still has a lot of work to do to make the major leagues anytime soon.
Percentage: 0%

Cody Eppley (9 IP, 8.00 ERA, 6 K with Rangers in 2011)
Eppley pitched well enough in the big leagues last year, despite a misleading 8.00 ERA, to warrant a fighting chance at an Opening Day roster spot. He started off dominant when he was first called up to the big leagues last year, and even pitched well enough to be the top set-up man for a week or two in a struggling bullpen. Eppley allowed just one run in his first 6.2 big league innings pitched, before imploding in his sixth outing, allowing 6 runs, all earned, in just 0.1 innings, leading to his demotion to Triple-A Round Rock after a couple more appearances. Cody and Mark Hamburger will be the two most likely people to land the last righty bullpen spot in the case that Koji Uehara is traded, which I think will happen.
Percentage: 41.6%

Scott Feldman (32 IP, 3.94 ERA, 22 K with Rangers in 2011)
After having his season delayed by a knee injury, Scott excelled once he finally got back to the majors in mid-July last year, working out of the bullpen and as a spot starter. Feldman also played a key role in the Rangers getting back to the World Series in 2011, as he had a 3.29 playoff ERA in 13.2 innings pitched, including 8.2 scoreless innings between the ALDS and ALCS. Scott should once again be a long reliever and a spot starter for the Rangers this season, and should have another good year.
Percentage: 100%

Neftali Feliz (62.1 IP, 2.74 ERA, 54 K with Rangers in 2011)
While Neftali is obviously still a lock to make the team on Opening Day, he will be doing so in a very different role than he has been in each of the past two seasons. This year he will be on the team as a starter, after closing each of the past two years, in which he had a combined 72 saves, a Rookie of the Year Award, and ERAs of 2.73 and 2.74. Neftali, in each of his three big league seasons, has held opponents to a batting average of under .200, with a career mark of .173 and a career WHIP of 0.95. Despite these terrific stats, there are a lot of questions about how he will adjust to the starter’s role, especially with his tendency to have high-pitch innings.
Percentage: 100%

Wilmer Font (0 IP in 2011)
Not only has font never been above High-A before in his career, but he also missed all of last season due to an injury. And even if he hadn’t been hurt last year, he still probably wouldn’t have a chance at this year’s team, as he hasn’t done all that great in the minors with ERAs of 4.53, 3.49, 4.35 in his three pro seasons with a reasonable amount of innings.
Percentage: 0%

Sean Green (11.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 7 K with Brewers in 2011)
While Sean has 269.2 innings of big league experience, chances are still against him being on the Opening Day roster, as not only is he a non-roster invitee, but he is also a righty, and the Rangers have an abundance of right-handed pitchers. After spending the majority of the 2007-2009 seasons in the majors with the Mariners and Mets, Green has thrown only 21 innings in the majors in the last two years combined. Green has a small chance at making the Opening Day team, but it will most likely take injuries. However, there is a very good chance he will be in the majors at some point this season.
Percentage: 18.5%

Mark Hamburger (8 IP, 4.50 ERA, 6 K with Rangers in 2011)
Even though Mark has almost no big league experience (8 IP), he still has a great chance at making the Opening Day roster as an innings-eater, since he has the ability to be a long man and even make a few spot starts here and there. He did a solid job in his limited time with the Rangers in ’11, but did really well with the RoughRiders (1.83 ERA in 19.2 IP) and with the Express (3.88 ERA in 62.2 IP), making for a combined 3.39 minor league ERA last year. Mark is a valuable man to have coming out of the pen and him and Cody Eppley are going to fight it out for the last spot if/when Koji Uehara is traded, which I fully expect to happen.
Percentage: 51.7%

Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA, 126 K with Rangers in 2011)
After struggling in each of his first three seasons in the majors with ERAs of 5.49, 6.11, and 4.71, Matt really broke through last year, posting a 3.39 ERA even with his 6.07 August ERA. After last season there is no way that he can be left off the team, and he would have to be really bad in Spring Training not to be in the rotation, but he at times seems weak mentally, so another good season out of him this year is not a given.
Percentage: 100%

Derek Holland (16-5, 3.95 ERA, 162 K with Rangers in 2011)
Like Matt Harrison did, Derek also had a breakout year in 2011, winning 16 games and having his first year with an ERA under 4.00. But while they both had good years last year, Derek seems much more mentally tough and still is nowhere near his potential. His potential was reached in the playoffs last year, though, as he had a 3.38 postseason ERA, including a 0.87 World Series ERA. Holland is clutch and has ridiculous talent. I expect him to be an All-Star and an ace this year.
Percentage: 100%

Michael Kirkman (27.1 IP, 6.59 ERA, 21 K with Rangers in 2011)
In an overall very weak lefty specialist battle for the Rangers this spring, Kirkman has a definitive advantage as the only one to both be on the 40-man roster and have big league experience. After a good season in his rookie year in 2010, in which he had a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings pitched, he followed that up with a 6.59 ERA. Despite the high ERA, he held lefties to a .214 batting average against, which also works to his advantage in the competition for the lefty specialist role coming out of the bullpen. Obviously, if the Rangers sign Mike Gonzalez, this all goes out the window and that spot in the bullpen goes to Gonzalez.
Percentage: 61.9%

Come back next week for part 2 of my Spring Training Pitchers Analysis.

Top 10 Catchers Right Now

This week I will start a new series in which I will give my top 10 players for each position. MLB Network has been running a similar series which provided me with the idea. This week I will be supplying my top 10 catchers.


10. Alex Avila, DET (2011: .295 AVG, 19 HR, 82 RBI, 2010: .228 AVG, 7 HR, 31 RBI)

After a very poor season in 2010, one in which he had almost no power and barely had an OBP over .300, Avila played very well in 2011, getting both an All-Star selection and a Silver Slugger Award (which should have gone to Mike Napoli). He put up solid power numbers, came up just short of hitting .300, and came up just short of a .400 OBP. On top of that, Alex had a .995 fielding percentage at catcher last year, which is very, very good. Avila isn’t fantastic and hasn’t had a great career so far, but last year was good enough to have him crack the top 10, barely over Russell Martin.

9. Ramon Hernandez, COL (2011: .282 AVG, 12 HR, 36 RBI, 2010: .297 AVG, 7 HR, 48 RBI)

While Hernandez is towards the end of his career, his performance has done nothing but improve the last couple of years. After hitting below .260 from 2007-09, Ramon has upped his game, hitting .297 in 2010 and .282 in 2011, with double-digit homers last year, just the second time in the last 5 years Ramon has accomplished that feat. And Ramon hardly ever makes an error, with a .998 fielding percentage last year, while throwing out 23 of 62 base stealers.

8. Carlos Santana, CLE (2011: .239 AVG, 27 HR, 79 RBI, 2010: .260 AVG, 6 HR, 22 RBI)

After being called up in 2010 and playing well before a season-ending injury, Santana came back in 2011, and while he struggled with his batting average, he hit close to 30 home runs, and walked 97 times, giving him an OBP of .351, which is not too bad, especially for a power hitter like Santana. However, he’s not a very good fielder, with a fielding percentage below .990, and throwing out only 28% of base stealers. He has a lot to work on, but Santana is a promising up-and-coming possible superstar.

7. Yadier Molina, STL (2011: .305 AVG, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 2010: .262 AVG, 6 HR, 62 RBI)

Yadier is almost the exact opposite of Santana. Molina is a guy who can hit for a high average, batting over .290 for three of the past four seasons. However, also unlike Carlos, he doesn’t have a whole lot of pop, hitting double-digit homers just once in his career, and yet another distinction between the two is that Yady is a terrific fielder, throwing out 44% of base stealers in his career, while Santana struggles in that department. Also, Molina is a salty veteran, while Santana is still a young player.

6. Miguel Montero, ARI (2011: .282 AVG, 18 HR, 86 RBI, 2010: .266 AVG, 9 HR, 43 RBI)

Despite throwing out 40% of base stealers last season, Montero is overall not a great defensive catcher. He is however, a player capable of producing some serious runs, as in 2 of the past 3 years, Montero has had a batting average over .280 (.294, .282), and 15+ home runs (16, 18). He actually played well enough in 2011 to make his first All-Star team. Since being called up in 2006, Miguel has had a fairly up-and-down career, but seems to have solidified himself over the past three seasons, with very good years in ’09 and ’11, and a solid season in 2010.

5. Buster Posey, SF (2011: .284 AVG, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 2010: .305 AVG, 18 HR, 67 RBI)

Even though Buster hasn’t even played through an entire season in the majors yet, being called up halfway through 2010 and getting injured a quarter of the way into 2011, he still ranks #5 on my list because of what he can do when he actually does play. He played well enough in 2010 to win Rookie of the Year, with a .305 average, and very solid power numbers. He also played well in the playoffs that year. And in 2011, he was on his way to a very solid year, although not quite as good as his first one, before suffering a season-ending injury. And he’s also a very solid defensive catcher for the Giants. Posey is just an all-around great player.

4. Matt Wieters, BAL (2011: .262 AVG, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 2010: .249 AVG, 11 HR, 55 RBI)

Matt finally is starting to head towards reaching his potential, although his ceiling is quite a bit away. Wieters made his first All-Star team last year and received his first Gold Glove, while posting a decent batting average and some very solid power numbers. However, while last year was a good year, I think this year will be a great year.

3. Joe Mauer, MIN (2011: .287 AVG, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 2010: .327 AVG, 9 HR, 75 RBI)

Even though Joe has had some injury problems over the past few years, he is one of the best players in baseball when he is healthy. He has been selected to four All-Star games, has four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, and one MVP. That is a very impressive set of accolades to go along with a .323 career average. If not for injury issues, Mauer would easily be the number 1 player on the list.

2. Brian McCann, ATL (2011: .270 AVG, 24 HR, 71 RBI, 2010: .269 AVG, 21 HR, 77 RBI)

McCann, like Mauer, has an impressive set of awards/honors, as he has been named to 6 All-Star teams, and even won All-Star MVP in 2010, and has 5 Silver Sluggers. Brian has been one of the best catchers in all of baseball ever since his first full season in 2006. He has 20+ home runs in 5 of his 6 full seasons in the big leagues, and has 70+ RBIs in all of them. On top of that, he has only hit under .270 once in his seven year career. However, his poor rate of throwing out 22% of base stealers is what keeps him from being #1 on the list.

1. Mike Napoli, TEX (2011: .320 AVG, 30 HR, 75 RBI, 2010: .238 AVG, 26 HR, 68 RBI)

While Mike has hit 20+ home runs in each of the three seasons before 2011, last year was really his breakout year, as Napoli had hit .273, .272, and .238 in those years and also played subpar defense with fielding percentages of .986 in two of those three years, while throwing out just 22% of base stealers. However, in 2011, not only did Napoli’s power numbers get even better, setting career highs in home runs with 30 and RBIs with 75, but he set a career high in batting average, at .320, an astounding .092 improvement from the year before, OBP, at .414, and runs, with 72. And not only did his hitting improve, but his defense skyrocketed, as Napoli set a career high in fielding percentage at .996, while throwing out 36% of base stealers.

Come back next week for my top 10 first basemen.

Jon Daniels Trade Analysis Part 5

This week I’m posting an update to my Jon Daniels Trade Analysis series, rating each trade from May 15th of 2010 through the end of the 2011 season as a win, loss, or draw. This is the 5th part of the series. Please see the 5/15/10 post for the previous entry in this series.

One thing that’s tough about analyzing these recent trades is trying to project what prospects might do in the future. So I didn’t do that, meaning I’m scoring each trade on the basis of the impact at the major league level as of today, because impact at the major league level is ultimately how each trade will be judged. That means that many of the scores will probably change sometime in the future.

7/1/10 Acquired C Bengie Molina from the San Francisco Giants for RHP Michael Main and RHP Chris Ray.

Win – Neither Bengie or Chris Ray did very well statistically the rest of the regular season with their new teams, with Bengie .240 with 2 home runs and 19 RBIs with the Rangers (although he did hit for a cycle during that time). Ray had a 4.13 ERA in his time with the Giants after pitching well with the Rangers. The difference between the two is the playoffs, as Chris didn’t play in any series, while Molina played very well during the postseason. Overall, Bengie had a .293 playoff ERA with 2 home runs and 8 RBIs, but he really dominated the first two rounds, hitting .357 in the ALDS and .313 in the ALCS. Bengie also brought some important intangibles in his handling of the Rangers pitching staff, both during the regular season and the postseason. Neither player returned to the teams they were traded to in 2011, as Molina retired, and Ray signed with Seattle.

Jon Daniel’s Cumulative Record: 21-7-17


7/9/10 Acquired LHP Cliff Lee and RHP Mark Lowe from the Seattle Mariners for 1B Justin Smoak, RHP Blake Beavan, RHP Josh Lueke, and 2B Matt Lawson.

Win – This one is a no-brainer as Cliff carried the Rangers on his back and got them to the World Series. Even though he was only a Ranger for half of a season, and didn’t even do all that well in the regular season (3.98 ERA), what he did in the ALDS and ALCS makes it to where no matter what Justin Smoak does as a Mariner, this trade is a win. In the ALDS, Cliff posted a 1.13 ERA and had 2 wins, including a complete game victory over Tampa Bay in Game 5. In the ALCS, Lee had a 0.00 ERA, and threw 8 shutout innings in his only outing. And even though he struggled in the World Series, his playoff performance was spectacular. Also, Mark Lowe, the other piece the Rangers got in the trade had a pretty solid year in 2011, with a 3.80 ERA in 45 innings. And it’s not like Smoak has done much yet, either, as he only hit .234 with Seattle last year. Blake Beavan did have a solid 2011 season, though, as he had a 4.27 ERA in 97 innings pitched in his first major league appearances. Josh Lueke also made the majors last year, but with not quite as much success, as he had a 6.06 ERA in 32.2 innings, and is now with the Rays.

Record: 22-7-17


7/30/10 Acquired 1B Jorge Cantu from the Florida Marlins for RHP Omar Poveda and RHP Evan Reed.

Draw – This trade, while seeming great at the time, ended up being meaningless, as Cantu stunk with the Rangers, hitting .235 with 1 home run and 2 RBIs in 98 at-bats in the regular season, and going 0-for-8 in the playoffs. Neither Poveda or Reed have made the majors yet.

Record: 22-7-18


7/31/10 Acquired RHP Roman Mendez and 1B Christopher McGuiness from the Boston Red Sox for C Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Draw – While Jarrod is playing a lot of innings with Boston, and neither Mendez or McGuiness have made the big league team (and McGuiness never will), this trade is a draw for the Rangers. Salty had solid power numbers last year, with 16 home runs and 56 RBIs, but also hit just .235 and played awful defense. On top of that, the Rangers would have had no room for him on the team with both Napoli and Torrealba.

Record: 22-7-19


7/31/10 Acquired 2B Christian Guzman from the Washington Nationals for RHP Ryan Tatusko and RHP Tanner Roark.

Draw – Neither Tatusko or Roark have reached the majors yet, and Guzman was poor as a Ranger, hitting .152 in 46 at-bats, and not even making a playoff appearance.

Record: 22-7-20


8/31/10 Acquired RF Jeff Francoeur from the New York Mets for 2B Joaquin Arias.

Win – This was a big-time win in two ways: we got Jeff, and we finally got rid of Arias. Thank goodness. Francoeur played pretty well for the Rangers in September, hitting .340 with 2 home runs and 11 RBIs as a Ranger, and while he struggled in the playoffs, he was still a good addition to the team. Also, we finally got Joaquin Arias out of the organization, and surprise, surprise, he has struggled in his major league at-bats since the trade.

Record: 23-7-20


1/8/11 Acquired RHP Ryan Tucker from Oakland Athletics for RHP Guillermo Moscoso.

Loss – While both players made major league appearances in 2011, only Moscoso pitched well. Tucker posted a 7.20 ERA in 5 innings, while Moscoso had a 3.38 ERA in 128 innings for the A’s, and pitched really well, holding opponents to a .212 batting average despite his 8-10 record. Guillermo is now with the Rockies.

Record: 23-8-20


1/25/11 Acquired C Mike Napoli from the Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Frank Francisco and cash.

Win – Win is an understatement in this trade, as Mike Napoli was clutch for the Rangers, both offensively and defensively. And all they had to give up to get him was an above-average relief pitcher. While Frankie had a 3.55 ERA with Toronto last year, Napoli was tearing it up with the Rangers, hitting .320 with 30 home runs and 75 RBIs. Napoli also tore it up in the playoffs, hitting .328 with 3 home runs and 15 RBIs. Plus his defense and handling of the pitching staff were top-notch.

Record: 24-8-20


3/28/11 Traded C Matt Treanor to the Kansas City Royals for cash.

Draw – This trade only happened because the Rangers had told Matt that he would have a big league spot when they signed him, but that wasn’t going to happen after they traded for Napoli. The Rangers ended up trading to get Treanor back, anyways.

Record: 24-8-21


7/19/11 Acquired SS Nick Green from the Baltimore Orioles for LHP Zach Phillips.

Draw – Phillips only threw 8 innings for Baltimore last year, and although he did well, 8 innings is not enough to make a trade a win or a loss. Green never made it to the majors with the Rangers.

Record: 24-8-22


7/31/11 Acquired RHP Koji Uehara from the Baltimore Orioles for 1B Chris Davis and RHP Tommy Hunter.

Loss – Koji was absolutely awful with the Rangers last year, and in fact did so poorly the Rangers are trying hard to get rid of him in a trade right now. After having a 1.72 ERA with the Orioles the first half of the season, Koji got to Texas and had a 4.00 regular season ERA, and then a 33.75 postseason ERA and got left off of the World Series roster. And, no, that 33.75 ERA is not a typo. 33.75. And to get him, the Rangers gave up two guys who have starting spots with Baltimore. Davis is currently the Oriole’s starting third baseman after hitting .276 after the trade last year, and Hunter is penciled into their starting rotation for now, despite having a 5.06 ERA with Baltimore last year.

Record: 24-9-22


7/31/11 Acquired RHP Mike Adams from the San Diego Padres for RHP Joe Wieland and LHP Robbie Erlin.

Win – This win is definitely as of right now, as Wieland and Erlin are currently the #7 and #8 prospects in the Padres organization and could be very good big league pitchers. But so far, neither of them have made the majors yet, and Mike Adams pitched very well for the Rangers last year, with a 2.10 regular season ERA with Texas and a 3.24 playoff ERA. Uehara may not have lived up to the hype, but Adams sure did, and Mike helped the Rangers make it to their second straight World Series.

Record: 25-9-22


8/18/11 Acquired RHP Tim Wood from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named later.

Draw – Wood has not pitched in the majors with the Rangers.

Record: 25-9-23


8/31/11 Acquired LHP Mike Gonzalez from the Baltimore Orioles for a RHP Pedro Strop.

Win – Mike was a very good pitcher for the Rangers coming out of the bullpen, even though his numbers might not show it. He did a good job as a lefty specialist, but had a 5.14 ERA with the Rangers. However, that did improve in the playoffs, as his postseason ERA was 4.15. And while Pedro did do very well in Baltimore, with a 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings pitched, he was not going to have any role with the Rangers.

Record: 26-9-23


8/31/11 Acquired C Matt Treanor from the Kansas City Royals for cash considerations.

Draw – Matt went 0-for-10 with the Rangers after the trade and had no playoff appearances.

Record: 26-9-24


Updated Comparison of Trades by Rangers General Managers:

Tom Grieve:
Record: 10-13-28
Winning percentage: 43%
Number of trades: 51 in 11 years (average of 4.6 trades per year)

Doug Melvin:
Record: 15-14-16
Winning percentage: 52%
Number of trades: 45 in 7 years (average of 6.4 trades per year)

John Hart:
Record: 7-11-18
Winning percentage: 39%
Number of trades: 36 in 4 years (average of 9 trades per year)

Jon Daniels:
Record: 26-9-24
Winning percentage: 74%
Number of trades: 59 in 6 years (average of 9.8 trades per year)

Come back next week for offseason analysis.

Yu Darvish and Brad Hawpe Analysis

This week I will provide my analysis on both of the Rangers’ moves this week, the signing of Yu Darvish, and the signing of Brad Hawpe. I also provided a look-ahead for the rest of the offseason. This post will be a fairly short one as I was gone all of Saturday at a church retreat.

YU DARVISH: I really like this signing, as I think Yu is a future ace, and the Rangers are getting him right at the beginning of the prime of his career at age 25. He has a career 1.99 ERA in Japan, including an ERA of 1.44 this past season. Scouts have said that he has 7 pitches, including 2-3 great ones. He has great command of his fastball, which is normally at about 93-95 mph. He also is supposed to be a hard worker with a lot of drive and determination. I think that he will be one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball in the very near future, and if he is that, then 6 years and $110 million will be a bargain.
GRADE: A, it is very hard to get aces to sign here in Texas with the hitter’s ballpark and with the heat, and so this is a great way for the Rangers to get an ace. I love this move.

BRAD HAWPE: I also like this pick-up, as Hawpe will be very good depth, and is a low-risk, high-reward addition. Brad had a rough year last year, and has really had a rough 2 years, but has been an All-Star as recently as 2009. Before having back-to-back years with batting averages of .245 and .231 and combined power numbers of 13 home runs and 63 RBI’s, Brad had really been playing well. Starting in 2006, Hawpe had averages of .293, .291, .283, and .285, and hit 20+ home runs to go along with 80+ RBIs in each of those four years. Also, the depth he gives is important in case Mitch Moreland struggles, especially coming off of his wrist injury, and also gives us the depth we need to trade Mitch for starting pitching or for a center fielder if the Rangers sign Prince Fielder.
GRADE: A-, I’m always in favor of depth-adding, low-risk, high-reward moves, just because they cost you almost nothing, and give you so many options. And if they work out well, the players can be an integral part of the team.

REMAINING RANGERS NEEDS AND OPTIONS AVAILABLE:

UTILITY INFIELDER WITH SHORTSTOP ABILITY: The most likely options here would be Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada. They are both veteran players, who will not get a starting job, and although neither excites me much, there just are not many options left at this position.

LEFT-HANDED RELIEF PITCHER: Mike Gonzalez is by far the most likely player to fill this role, as the Rangers have been in talks with him, and already have familiarity with him from last year. I would love to bring him back, and I think he will have a really good season next year. There really aren’t any other options at lefty. If they don’t sign a lefty, they will probably sign a righty, such as Juan Cruz, or maybe even Michael Wuertz.

PRINCE FIELDER: I wouldn’t necessarily call him a need, but there are a lot of rumors connecting him to the Rangers, and I would love to sign him. He would be a huge addition to the line-up, and would also open up the Rangers to trade Mitch Moreland for a Wade Davis type pitcher, or in a package for a Matt Garza caliber one.

Come back next week for more offseason analysis, hopefully on the signing of Prince Fielder.

CJ Wilson

Ever since CJ has become a free agent and was then signed by the Angels, I have heard a lot of people say that they are glad that he is gone, and it has really frustrated me.

First off, he had a lot of success with the franchise, with a career record of 43-35, with a 3.60 ERA and 52 saves along with 637 strikeouts in 708 innings. Those are numbers that easily make him one of the Top 50 All-Time Rangers, as he ranked number 33 in my most recent list. There is no way that anybody should be saying good riddance to one of the franchise’s top players, and a player that has been a key part of back-to-back American League champion teams.

He has had this success as a starter, a closer, and a set-up man, showing his versatility and willingness to do whatever the team asks him to. He was 31-15 in his two full seasons as a starter, with ERAs of 3.35 and 2.94, pitching well enough to be an All-Star in 2011. He also led the league in games started this past year. Are those the numbers of someone that you want to get rid of?

As a closer, he had plenty of success, converting the vast majority of save opportunities, and definitely did his job. He also spent part of two seasons as a set-up man, and had ERAs of 3.03 and 2.81 in those years.

And while, yes, he did struggle in the playoffs this year, he did well in the 2010 playoffs. He compiled a 3.70 ERA and held opponents to a .191 batting average in the 2010 playoff run, and pitched extremely well in both the ALDS and World Series. So it’s not like he has been a terrible playoff pitcher in his career.

And that’s just what he had done on the field. He has also been great for the Rangers off the field. Over the course of his career, he has done a lot of work out in the community, and has been at a lot of charity events, even starting his own charity. So not only is he a great pitcher, but he is a great person, and that’s something that I have personally been able to see. He has probably been the nicest Ranger I have ever met, and that is saying a lot with all of the great guys in the organization. He did an interview with me and also helped me line up an interview with Ian Kinsler. He has taken a lot of time to talk with me. There were multiple times at Spring Trainings when he talked with me for a good 20 minutes after the morning workouts were over, while every other player on the team was back in the clubhouse showering and getting ready.

CJ is a guy that I will sorely miss, and has received a lot of unfair criticism and negativity.

Rangers Offseason Analysis

Sorry I haven’t posted anything in a couple of weeks. I have been out of town in Cincinnati and in Disney World.

This week I will analyze the moves that the Rangers have made so far this offseason, along with giving them a grade, on an A through F scale, with A being the best, and giving them an importance grade, on an A through F scale, based on how important the move is for the Rangers, with A being the most important.

On November 21st, the Rangers signed closer Joe Nathan on a 2-yr, $14 million deal with a club option worth $9 million for a third year.

ANALYSIS: I think that this is a really good move by the Rangers. They are getting a guy in Nathan who has the potential to be the best closer in baseball, as before his Tommy John surgery he was posting ERAs of 1.58, 1.88, and 1.33 consecutively. And while he struggled coming off of the injury last year, he did improve towards the end of the year. He also makes the Rangers all-around pitching staff better, as his signing allowed the Rangers to move Neftali Feliz to the rotation, which may move Alexi Ogando back to the bullpen, leaving the Rangers with a new potential ace in the rotation and another dominant set-up man alongside Mike Adams. They may have overpaid just a little bit to sign Nathan, but I still like the move, especially with all of the positive ramifications it creates.
GRADE: B+
IMPORTANCE: A

On December 1st, the Rangers traded C Taylor Teagarden to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHP Randy Henry.

ANALYSIS: While I will miss Taylor, as he is a really good guy and a good defensive catcher, I am happy he will get the opportunity to back up Matt Wieters in Baltimore. However, this is not a big loss at all for the Rangers, as he was spending almost all of his time at Triple-A and the Rangers obviously had no confidence in him, as they even traded for an emergency third catcher for September in Matt Treanor. Taylor had only 34 big league at-bats last year. Randy Henry is a right-handed relief pitcher who had a very good year last year, posting a 2.22 ERA between Low-A and High-A, including a 0.82 ERA against right-handed batters while in High-A. Despite a good season last year, Randy doesn’t figure to have a significant future with the Rangers.
GRADE: C
IMPORTANCE: D

On December 9th, the Rangers signed 2B Alberto Gonzalez to a minor league contract.

ANALYSIS: This is a nice pick-up as a guy to replace Esteban German, who went to Japan. Alberto is a utility infielder with plenty of major league experience that they can have in the minors as an emergency man in case there is an injury amongst the Rangers infield (cough, Kinsler). Alberto isn’t all that great, but he provides some good depth. He did have 247 at-bats last year, however, and while he hit only .215, he played good defense, and hit well with runners in scoring position, with a .278 average.
GRADE: B-
IMPORTANCE: C

On December 19th, the Rangers won the bidding for the rights to negotiate with Japanese SP Yu Darvish with a $51.7 million bid.

ANALYSIS: I love this move. Darvish has all the pitches to be an ace. He throws up to 96 miles per hour, and reportedly has 4 plus pitches, which is just ridiculous. He posted an ERA of 1.44 this past year for the Nippon Ham Fighters. That was the best ERA of his career, and it is hard to set a new low when you have ERAs of 1.82, 1.88, 1.73, and 1.78 in your first four seasons. He has thrown for 200+ innings in four of his five seasons, which shows that he can be a workhorse, and he had a ridiculous amount of strikeouts (276) in 2011. Another thing I like about him is that he is only 25 years old, unlike most pitchers who come out of Japan who are already veterans. Now, the Rangers obviously haven’t signed Yu yet, as they only won the right to negotiate with him, but I think he is worth the amazing amount of money it will take to get him.
GRADE: A
IMPORTANCE: A-

On December 21st, the Rangers traded RHP Ryan Kelly to the San Diego Padres in exchange for C Luis Martinez.

ANALYSIS: Like the pick-up of Alberto Gonzalez, this trade adds good depth in the minor league system at a position where depth is needed. Also, like Gonzalez, Martinez has some major league experience, and is much, much better defensively than at the dish. He hit just .203 last year in 59 at-bats for the Padres, but he played very well defensively, committing no errors, and throwing out a decent percentage of base-stealers. The loss of Tucker isn’t a big deal, either, as he did not have a place on the Rangers, and even if there were injuries, he would be well down the list for a potential call-up.
GRADE: B-
IMPORTANCE: C

Come back next week for more offseason analysis.

Pre-Season Predictions vs. Results

This week I will compare my preseason predictions with what ended up happening.

AL East:

Prediction:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees (wild card)
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Result:
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays (wild card)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Percentage Correct:
1/5 (20%)

Explanation:
I bought into the Red Sox hype coming into the year, and so their late-season collapse really hurt me here. Also, the Rays huge comeback hurt me, as I figured there was no way they’d be any good after losing Garza, Pena, Crawford, and Bartlett.

AL Central:

Prediction:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

Result:
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

Percentage Correct:
1/5 (20%)

Explanation:
Wow, was Minnesota bad. They won the division last year and basically returned the exact same team. However, almost every single one of their pitchers pitched worse than last year, and Mauer was injured and out most of it. Also, I learned never to buy into the White Sox. Too old.

AL West:

Prediction:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Seattle Mariners

Result:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

Percentage Correct:
2/4 (50%)

Explanation:
I actually did pretty well predicting this division.

AL MVP:
Prediction:
Winner: Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
Runner-up: Robinson Cano, NYY
Result:
Winner: Justin Verlander, DET
Runner-up: Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
Percentage Correct:
0/2 (0%)
Explanation:
I didn’t get either right, but my predictions weren’t terrible as they finished 6th and 7th in voting.

AL Cy Young:
Prediction:
Winner: Clay Buchholz, BOS
Runner-up: CC Sabathia, NYY
Result:
Winner: Justin Verlander, DET
Runner-up: Jered Weaver, LAA
Percentage Correct:
0/2 (0%)
Explanation:
This one didn’t work out as I wanted, as I went out on a limb on Buchholz. Not only did he get injured, he struggled beforehand. Bad pick.

AL Rookie of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: JP Arencibia, TOR
Runner-up: Brent Morel, CWS
Result:
Winner: Jeremy Hellickson, TB
Runner-up: Mark Trumbo, LAA
Percentage Correct:
0/2 (0%)
Explanation:
This is always a tough award to predict, but Arencibia was highly disappointing.

NL East:

Prediction:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves (wild card)
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

Result:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. New York Mets
5. Florida Marlins

Percentage Correct:
3/5, 60%

Explanation:
I was awesome on this division. First one over 50%. Yes!

NL Central:

Prediction:
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Result:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals (wild card)
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros

Percentage Correct:
0/6 (0%)

Explanation:
Oh, man. That was bad. I don’t even want to talk about this one. 0 for 6.

NL West:

Prediction:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Result:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Rockies

Percentage Correct:
1/5 (20%)

Explanation:
Despite the percentage, I feel pretty good about this division, as nobody could’ve predicted the Diamondbacks’ run. Also, I didn’t jump on the Colorado bandwagon like everybody else was.

NL MVP:
Prediction:
Winner: Ryan Braun, MIL
Runner-up: Jay Bruce, CIN
Result:
Winner: Ryan Braun, MIL
Runner-up: Matt Kemp, LAD
Percentage Correct:
1/2 (50%)
Explanation:
I got this one right.

NL Cy Young:
Prediction:
Winner: Roy Halladay, PHI
Runner-up: Cliff Lee, PHI
Result:
Winner: Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Runner-up: Roy Halladay, PHI
Percentage Correct:
1/2 (50%)
Explanation:
Since my 1 and 2 finished 2 and 3, I feel pretty good about this one.

NL Rookie of the Year:
Prediction:
Winner: Freddie Freeman, ATL
Runner-up: Brandon Belt, SF
Result:
Winner: Craig Kimbrel, ATL
Runner-up: Freddie Freeman, ATL
Percentage Correct:
1/2 (50%)
Explanation:
Yet another successful NL Awards prediction. I was great with those last year, too.

Playoffs:

ALDS Predictions:
Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers over New York Yankees

ALDS Results:
Texas Rangers over Tampa Bay Rays
Detroit Tigers over New York Yankees

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 2/4, 50%
Series Results: 1/2, 50%

Explanation:
Not bad, not bad. Too bad I bought into the Sox.

NLDS Predictions:
Philadelphia Phillies over Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves

NLDS Results:
Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 1/4, 25%
Series Results: 0/2, 0%

Explanation:
This is embarrassing.

ALCS Prediction:
Boston Red Sox over Texas Rangers

ALCS Result:
Texas Rangers over Detroit Tigers

Percentage Correct:
Teams 1/2, 50%
Series Results: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
I will never again pick against my team.

NLCS Prediction:
Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds

NLCS Result:
St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 0/2, 0%
Series Result: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
This was a very surprising NLCS, so I don’t blame myself for not predicting it.

World Series Prediction:
Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox

World Series Result:
St. Louis Cardinals over Texas Rangers

Percentage Correct:
Teams: 0/2, 0%
Series Result: 0/1, 0%

Explanation:
I went with the common prediction, the Phillies and Sox, and it came back to bite me. The popular predictions never come to be.

Overall Percentage Correct:
16/63 (25%)

Come back next week for offseason analysis.

Updated Top 50 Rangers All-Time List

This week I will post an updated version of my Top 50 All-Time Rangers List, which I had done at the end of the 2009 season and updated after the 2010 season. Below you will find my new list, along with where those players were previously. Below the list is my reasoning for players that moved up on the list.

1. Ivan Rodriguez: 5754 AB, .305 AVG, 217 HR, 842 RBI, 1,747 career Rangers hits, 866 R, .489 SLG, 352 2B, 2806 TB, 28 3B, MVP (99), Silver Slugger (94-99), Gold Glove (92-01), All-Star (92-01)

2. Michael Young: 6 200-hit seasons (03-07, 11), 2061 H (franchise leader), 917 RBI, 169 HR, 1667 G (franchise leader), 6788 AB (franchise leader), .304 AVG, 1006 R (franchise leader), 388 2B (franchise leader), 3060 TB, 52 3B (franchise leader), All-Star MVP (06), Gold Glove (08), All-Star (04-09, 11), Batting Title (05) [was 3]

3. Juan Gonzalez: 5435 AB, .293 AVG, 372 HR (franchise leader), 1,180 RBI (franchise leader), 878 R, .565 SLG% (franchise leader), 1595 H, 320 2B, 3073 TB (franchise leader), MVP (96, 98), Silver Slugger (92, 93, 96, 97, 98), All-Star (93, 98), HR King (92, 93), RBI Leader (98) [was 4]

4. Rafael Palmeiro: 5830 AB, .290 AVG, 321 HR, 1039 RBI, 1,573 G, 958 runs, 805 BB (franchise leader), .519 SLG, 1692 H, .378 OBP, 321 2B, 3026 TB, Silver Slugger (99), Gold Glove (99), All-Star (91, 99), 200-Hit (91), Hit Leader (90)

5. Nolan Ryan: Rangers Hall of Fame, 51 W, 939 K, 3.43 ERA, .567 W%, All-Star (89), K-Leader (89, 90)

6. Kenny Rogers: Rangers Hall of Fame, 528 G (franchise leader), 133 W, 1909 IP, 1201 K, .581 W%, Gold Glove (00, 02, 04, 05), All-Star (95, 04, 05) [was 7]

7. Charlie Hough: Rangers Hall of Fame, 139 W (franchise leader), 1452 K (franchise leader), 344 G, 98 CG (franchise leader), 11 shut-outs, 2308 IP (franchise leader), 3.68 ERA, All-Star (86) [was 6]

8. Alex Rodriguez: 482 consecutive games, MVP (03), best Rangers career slugging percentage, 156 HR, .305 AVG, 1863 AB, Hank Aaron Award (01-03), Silver Slugger (01-03), Gold Glove (02, 03), All-Star (01-03), 200-Hit (01), HR King (01-03), RBI Leader (02)

9. Ruben Sierra: 4580 AB, .279 AVG, 180 HR, 742 RBI, 3 100-RBI seasons with the Rangers, 1 200-hit season with Rangers (91), 2 .300 batting average seasons with Rangers, 325 consecutive games played, 90 SB, 645 R, 1281 H, 44 3B, Silver Slugger (89), All-Star (89, 91, 92), RBI Leader (89)

10. Fergie Jenkins: Rangers Hall of Fame, 90 CG, 93 W, 17 shut-outs (franchise leader), 1410.1 IP, 895 K, 3.56 ERA, .564 W%, 25-Game Winner (74), T-Win Leader (74)

11. Gaylord Perry: 55 CG, 12 shutouts, 575 K, 3.26 ERA

12. Al Oliver: 163 games played in one season, .319 career Rangers batting average (highest), 337 RBI, 49 HR, Silver Slugger (80, 81), All-Star (80, 81), 200-Hit (80)

13. Rusty Greer: 3829 AB, .305 AVG, 119 HR, 614 RBI, 643 R, .387 OBP

14. John Wetteland: Rangers Hall of Fame, 150 saves (franchise leader), All-Star (98, 99)

15. Mike Hargrove: .399 career Rangers OBP (highest), .293 AVG, ROY (74), All-Star (75)

16. Jim Sundberg: Rangers Hall of Fame, 4685 AB, 482 R, 544 BB, 431 RBI, 54 HR, Gold Glove (76-81), All-Star (74, 78)

17. Josh Hamilton: .311 AVG (2nd), 99 HR, 378 RBI, 33 SB, MVP (10), All-Star (08-11), Silver Slugger (08, 10), ALCS MVP (10), Batting Champion (10), RBI Leader (08) [was 21]

18. Toby Harrah: Rangers Hall of Fame, .257 AVG, 122 HR, 143 SB, 4188 AB, 546 RBI, 582 R, 668 BB, All-Star (75, 76) [was 17]

19. Julio Franco: 98 SB, .307 AVG, 55 HR, 331 RBI, All-Star MVP (90), Silver Slugger (89-91), All-Star (89-91), 200-Hit (91), Batting Title (91) [was 18]

20. Buddy Bell: Rangers Hall of Fame, 3623 AB, .293 AVG, 87 HR, 499 RBI, 471 R, Silver Slugger (84), Gold Glove (79-84), All-Star (80-82, 84), 200-Hit (79) [was 19]

21. Mark Teixeira: 153 HR, 499 RBI, 426 R, .533 SLG, Silver Slugger (04), Gold Glove (05, 06), All-Star (05) [was 20]

22. Ian Kinsler: .275 AVG, 124 HR, 395 RBI, 136 SB, 558 R, All-Star (08, 10), 30-30 club (09, 11) [was 37]

23. Larry Parrish: 149 HR, 522 RBI, .264 AVG, All-Star (87) [was 22]

24. Pete O’Brien: 3351 AB, .273 AVG, 114 HR, 487 RBI [was 23]

25. Will Clark: .308 AVG, 397 RBI, 77 HR, All-Star (94) [was 24]

26. Kevin Brown: 40 CG, 78 W, 1278.2 IP, 742 K, 3.81 ERA, .549 W%, 78-64, All-Star (92), 21-Game Winner (92), T-Win Leader (92) [was 25]

27. Bobby Witt:104-104, 1680.2 IP, 1405 K, 4.85 ERA [was 26]

28. Jeff Russell: 445 G, 134 saves, 3.73 ERA, 42-40, Rolaids Fireman of Year (89), All-Star (88, 89), Save-Leader (99) [was 27]

29. Francisco Cordero: 49 saves in a season, 356 G, 117 saves, 21-20, 3.45 ERA, 393 K, 297 IP, All-Star (04) [was 28]

30. Jose Guzman: 66 W, 24 CG, 1013.2 IP, 715 K, 66-62, 3.90 ERA [was 29]

31. Danny Darwin: 224 G, 55-52, 872 IP, 566 K, 3.72 ERA [was 30]

32. Rick Helling: 68-51, 1008 IP, 687 K, .571 W%, 4.86 ERA, 20-Game Winner (98), T-Win Leader (98) [was 31]

33. CJ Wilson: 43-35, 3.60 ERA, 52 SV, 708 IP, 637 K, All-Star (11) [was 41]

34. Nelson Cruz: .271 AVG, 106 HR, 323 RBI, 52 SB, All-Star (09), ALCS MVP (11), 14 playoff HR (franchise leader), 27 playoff RBI (franchise leader) [was 50]

35. Matlack: 3.41 ERA, 43-45, 493 K, 915 IP [was 32]

36. Doc Medich: .538 W%, 50-43, 3.95 ERA, 790.1 IP, 322 K [was 33]

37. Neftali Feliz: 74 saves, 2.55 ERA, 162.2 IP, 164 K, ROY (10), All-Star (10), 0.95 WHIP (franchise leader, 100+ IP) [was off list]

38. Hank Blalock: .272 AVG, 150 HR, 525 RBI, All-Star (03, 04) [was 34]

39. Comer: 3.80 ERA, .574 W%, 39-29, 205 K, 575.2 IP [was 35]

40. Bert Blyleven: 11 shut-outs, 2.74 ERA (lowest), 23-23, 326 K, 437 IP [was 36]

41. Bump Wills: 161 SB (franchise leader), .265 AVG, 30 HR, 264 RBI [was 38]

42. Mickey Rivers: .303 AVG, 22 HR, 168 RBI, 200-Hit (80) [was 39]

43. Aaron Sele: .649 W% (highest), 37-20, 4.50 ERA, 417.2 IP, 353 K, All-Star (98) [was 40]

44. Steve Foucault: 35 saves, 26-25, 3.22 ERA, 231 K, 382.2 IP [was 42]
45. Colby Lewis: 38-36, 4.90 ERA, 578 IP, 492 K, 2.34 playoff ERA [was off list]

46. Jeff Burroughs: .255 AVG, 108 HR, 412 RBI, MVP (74), All-Star (74), RBI Leader (74) [was 43]
47. Elvis Andrus: .271 AVG, 11 HR, 135 RBI, 102 SB [was off list]

48. Scott Feldman: 33-33, 4.75 ERA, 604 IP, 337 K [was off list]

49. Dean Palmer: 154 HR, .247 AVG, 451 RBI [was 44]
50. David Murphy: .281 AVG, 57 HR, 256 RBI, 41 SB [was off list]

Bumped Off List:

Gary Ward: .293 AVG, 41 HR, 200 RBI, All-Star (85) [was 45]
Jim Kern: 37 saves, 17-18, 2.59 ERA, 236.1 IP, 196 K, Rolaids Fireman of Year (79), All-Star (79), Save-Leader (79) [was 46]
Jeff Zimmerman: 32 saves, 17-12, 3.27 ERA, 228.2 IP, 213 K, All-Star (99) [was 47]
Tom Henke: 58 saves, 11-12, 3.55 ERA, 169 K, 172.1 IP [was 48]
Steve Buechele: .240 AVG, 94 HR, 338 RBI [was 49]

Reasons for Players Who Moved Up:

Michael Young (from 3 to 2): Michael had another great year, and now has way more hits than Juan Gonzalez (the previous number 2) did, and he also set a few more franchise records.

Kenny Rogers (from 7 to 6): Charlie Hough (the previous number 6) was just barely above him before this year, and the only reason he was above Kenny was because he was in the Rangers Hall of Fame and Kenny wasn’t. This year, when Kenny got inducted, Hough no longer had that.

Josh Hamilton (from 21 to 17): Josh kept his batting average at second in franchise history while improving his power numbers and making another All-Star game.

Ian Kinsler (from 37 to 22): Ian had yet another solid season, and not only did he add a lot to his power totals, but he put a second 30-30 season on his resume.

CJ Wilson (from 41 to 33): CJ made his first All-Star game as a Ranger, while lowering his ERA by a large amount and adding a couple hundred more strikeouts to his total.

Nelson Cruz (from 50 to 34): While Nellie had a solid regular season, the real reason he moved up was because of his playoffs. This year he added an ALCS MVP and brought up his home run and RBI totals in the playoffs to 14 and 27, both franchise records.

Neftali Feliz (from off list to 37): Nefty moved himself way up the Rangers save list, had another great year, and lowered his WHIP even farther, making him the franchise leader, all following a year where he won the Rookie of the Year Award.

Colby Lewis (from off list to 45): Just like Cruz, Colby didn’t get himself on the list with his regular season play (where he struggled), but with his once again dominant postseason pitching.

Elvis Andrus (from off list to 47): Elvis doesn’t have great numbers at the plate, hitting around .270 in his career with almost no power, but he has already stolen over 100 career bases, and has played stellar defense.

Scott Feldman (from off list to 48): Scott didn’t do a whole lot in the regular season this year, but he had just missed out on the list last year, and he added a couple of wins to his total this year, and a decent amount of innings and strikeouts. He also pitched well in the playoffs.

David Murphy (from off list to 50): David raised his power numbers and still has a solid career average, but at #50 on the list, he wasn’t competing with too much.

Come back next week for my analysis on the Rangers offseason so far.

Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

This week I will make my free agent predictions for pitchers. Last week I made my hitter predictions, and just like last week, I will include where I think the pitcher will go along with my reasoning for it. Also, I have predicted the pitchers’ locations assuming the Rangers do not get Prince Fielder, as I no longer believe that they will sign him.

SP Mark Buehrle, CWS (13-9, 3.59 ERA, 109 K)
GOING TO: Miami Marlins
REASONING: The Marlins have been very aggressive so far this offseason, having already offered contracts to Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes, along with Buehrle. While I don’t think they’ll land the other two, the Marlins seem to be going all-out for a big splash this year to try and get the fans excited to come to their new ballpark, and I think they will end up over-paying to try and get a pitcher who is only solid, like Mark Buehrle.

SP Yu Darvish, JAP (18-6, 1.44 ERA, 276 K in Japan)
GOING TO: Toronto Blue Jays
REASONING: The Blue Jays have the cash to spend this offseason and are trying to make a run at the playoffs within the next couple of years, and their main focus is going to be on pitching during free agency. Darvish will be a very expensive player, coming from Japan and considered to be the best pitcher in free agency by many scouts, as teams will have to bid to even get the rights to negotiate a contract with him, but I think that Toronto will be willing to do that.

SP Edwin Jackson, STL (12-9, 3.79 ERA, 148 K)
GOING TO: New York Yankees
REASONING: The Yankees can obviously afford Edwin, and he is definitely the kind of pitcher the Yankees always seem to like. Edwin is a guy with very high potential, throws a hard fastball, and is capable of greatness. However, some qualities that the Yankees have been prone to overlook, like mental toughness, Edwin lacks.

SP Hiroki Kuroda, LAD (13-16, 3.07 ERA, 161 K)
GOING TO: Los Angeles Dodgers
REASONING: The Dodgers seem to be the only team that Hiroki is interested in signing with. He has played there his whole career, and turned down trades this July with his no-trade clause because he wanted to stay in LA. It has been reported that if he doesn’t play for the Dodgers that he’ll be back in Japan. I think he stays in America and stays with the Dodgers.

SP Roy Oswalt, PHI (9-10, 3.69 ERA, 93 K)
GOING TO: Texas Rangers
REASONING: The Rangers have expressed interest in Oswalt, who wants a two-year deal and is coming off of a year full of back problems. Texas also fits the profile of a team that Roy wants to go to. Roy wants to stay close to home, in Mississippi. Check. He really wants to win a World Series for the first time in his career, and his agent said it mostly came down to him getting an opportunity to get a ring. Check.

SP Javier Vazquez, FLA (13-11, 3.69 ERA, 162 K)
GOING TO: Retired
REASONING: It has been reported that if Javier doesn’t get at least a $10 million dollar contract with Miami he will retire. With the Marlins going after so many top free agents, I don’t see them giving him that contract.

SP CJ Wilson, TEX (16-7, 2.94 ERA, 206 K)
GOING TO: Washington Nationals
REASONING: The Nationals, much like the Marlins and Blue Jays, are planning on making some major free agent splashes this offseason, in order to both make a playoff run and to get their fans excited. I think the Nats will be willing to offer CJ the most money, and so I think that’s where he goes. I think CJ would rather go to the Yankees or Rangers, but the Yanks don’t seem overly interested, and I don’t see the Rangers giving him the kind of money that Washington will.

CP Heath Bell, SD (43 SV, 2.44 ERA, 51 K)
GOING TO: San Diego Padres
REASONING: Heath loves it in San Diego, and didn’t want to leave at the trade deadline. I don’t think he’ll want to leave now, either. He is willing to take a major home-town discount and the Padres want him back. I don’t see him leaving.

CP Francisco Cordero, CIN (37 SV, 2.45 ERA, 42 K)
GOING TO: Cincinnati Reds
REASONING: Co-co has been in Cincinnati for four years now and seems to enjoy it there. The Reds aren’t going after any big free agents this offseason, so they have the means to keep Francisco for a playoff run with a solid team next year, and I think they will use their resources to keep Cordero.

CP Ryan Madson, PHI (32 SV, 2.37 ERA, 62 K)
GOING TO: Texas Rangers
REASONING: With the Rangers looking to move Neftali Feliz into the rotation next year, they are trying to get a closer this offseason, and Madson is one of the better ones available via free agency. He had a great year in his first full season in a closer role in 2011, and is a clutch pitcher in the playoffs. It is a very good fit.

Come back next week for my updated Top 50 All-Time Rangers List.

Free Agent Hitter Predictions

This week I will post the first of two editions of my free agent predictions, this one on the hitters. Next week I will make my pitcher free agent predictions.

1B Prince Fielder, MIL (.299 AVG, 38 HR, 120 RBI)
GOING TO: Texas Rangers
REASONING: This is a perfect fit for both Prince and the Rangers. Prince is only 27 and still has another big contract after this one, and the hitter’s ballpark that Texas has will be appealing. Also, his agent has said that Prince wants to play in the AL so that he can DH some, and the Rangers fit that bill, too. The biggest question I have here is not whether Prince wants the Rangers, it’s how badly the Rangers want Prince.

1B Albert Pujols, STL (.299 AVG, 37 HR, 99 RBI)
GOING TO: St.Louis Cardinals
REASONING: With Tony La Russa gone, I think there is a good chance that Albert signs with the Cubs, but I just don’t see the Cardinals letting that happen. Pujols means too much to the Cardinals organization for them to let him go, so they will probably be willing to give him some big bucks.

1B Carlos Pena, CHC (.225 AVG, 28 HR, 80 RBI)
GOING TO: Milwaukee Brewers
REASONING: With the Brewers most likely losing Prince Fielder but still having a good team that is close to playoff talent even without Prince, they will definitely go after a guy like Carlos Pena to try and fill the hole in the lineup that Fielder will leave behind. Pena is a good home run hitter, and would help the Brewers batting order in the clean-up spot.

2B Aaron Hill, ARI (.246 AVG, 8 HR, 61 RBI)
GOING TO: Arizona Diamondbacks
REASONING: Aaron is asking for more money than the Diamondbacks are willing to give him right now, but he should still stay in Arizona, as no teams are willing to give him the money he wants. Also, he is an important piece for Arizona, and was fantastic for them after he was traded to the D-backs, hitting .315 in his 33 games with Arizona last year.

2B Kelly Johnson, TOR (.222 AVG, 21 HR, 58 RBI)
GOING TO: Detroit Tigers
REASONING: Kelly had a pretty good year last year and the Tigers will be looking for a second baseman, as both Ramon Santiago and Carlos Guillen are free agents this year. Kelly would be a good pick-up for them, and would add some very good power into their line-up. However, a problem with this scenario may be that, since Kelly probably won’t get much more than a one-year deal, he might want to sign with a team that has a better hitter’s park.

SS Jose Reyes, NYM (.337 AVG, 7 HR, 44 RBI)
GOING TO: San Francisco Giants
REASONING: While I think Jose Reyes will be a bust for any team that signs him, since he gets injured so often, there will be teams willing to give him big bucks, and I think the Giants are one of those teams. They have the money to do so, and are in a dire need of offense, something that Reyes supplies when healthy. This seems like a very good fit.

SS Jimmy Rollins, PHI (.268 AVG, 16 HR, 63 RBI)
GOING TO: Philadelphia Phillies
REASONING: I don’t think that any teams will be willing to give Jimmy a big pay day as, not only is he injury-prone like Jose Reyes is, but he hasn’t been very productive since his MVP year in 2007. However, the Phillies don’t have any viable options to replace him, and he is an important figure in their clubhouse, so I think they will be willing to give him a decent-sized contract to keep him.

3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC (.306 AVG, 26 HR, 93 RBI)
GOING TO: Miami Marlins
REASONING: The Marlins are supposedly trying to spend a lot of money this offseason with the new ballpark coming next year, and Ramirez would fit a need on their roster. I think that Miami would be willing to give him the three or four year deal Aramis is looking for, and they will definitely be willing to give him the money he is looking for.

LF Josh Willingham, OAK (.246 AVG, 29 HR, 98 RBI)
GOING TO: Chicago White Sox
REASONING: With Juan Pierre in free agency and the White Sox not showing a whole lot of interest, they definitely have a need at left field. They also have the means to go out and get a very good left fielder, and there aren’t many good left fielders to be had this year. Josh is coming off a very good year in Oakland and would be a great fit in Chicago.

CF Grady Sizemore, CLE (.224 AVG, 10 HR, 32 RBI)
GOING TO: Texas Rangers
REASONING: The Rangers could use a center fielder in a one-year scenario, buying time for Leonys Martin to get ready in the minors, and Grady Sizemore fits the bill. Grady probably won’t be too expensive this offseason, and shouldn’t get more than a one-year deal. The Rangers have already been listed as one of the favorites to land Sizemore, and I think they will end up with him.

RF Carlos Beltran, SF (.300 AVG, 22 HR, 84 RBI)
GOING TO: Boston Red Sox
REASONING: The Red Sox definitely need a right fielder this offseason, and with their money, they will probably try to go after the best one, and that is Carlos Beltran. Carlos had a good year last year, and even though he is injury-prone, the Sox will probably still be willing to pay him the money.

RF Michael Cuddyer, MIN (.284 AVG, 20 HR, 70 RBI)
GOING TO: Philadelphia Phillies
REASONING: There have been numerous reports that have said that the Phillies are willing to do whatever it takes to get Cuddyer. They could definitely use him, as not only does Philadelphia need a right fielder (which Cuddyer is), they also need a first baseman for the first couple months of the year with Ryan Howard out, and Cuddyer plays that position also.

RF Jason Kubel, MIN (.273 AVG, 12 HR, 58 RBI)
GOING TO: Tampa Bay Rays
REASONING: The Rays have to go and get a bat this offseason with a DH spot that was terrible last year, and both Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon in free agency. Kubel fits their team perfectly, as he is just a solid hitter, which puts him at a contract that they can afford, and he can play both left and right field, as well as DH.

DH David Ortiz, BOS (.309 AVG, 29 HR, 96 RBI)
GOING TO: Boston Red Sox
REASONING: While David is very frustrated with the Red Sox right now, chances are that he’ll stay. He wants a three-year deal, and nobody will give that to him, but the Sox will probably be the most willing to give him a large deal. Also, he has been in Boston for a while, and I just don’t see him leaving.

Come back next week for my pitcher free agent predictions.

Free Agent Wish List

This week I will post my free agent wish list. I have listed the six free agents that I want the most, the reason why I want them, the contract I would be willing to give him, and whether that contract will be enough to get him.

I did not post anything on the World Series, because I am still too depressed to think about it.

1. Prince Fielder, MIL

Prince is not only one of the best hitters in baseball, but would fit perfectly into our lineup. The Rangers lineup is righty-heavy, and is only lacking a first baseman and center fielder as far as hitting goes. Mitch Moreland is an average player both offensively and defensively, and that may be all he will ever be. And you can’t go wrong with Prince Fielder, as he is an unbelievable hitter. This past season, he hit .299 with 38 home runs and 120 RBIs. The year before that, he had a down year, hitting just .261 with 32 home runs and 83 RBIs. But in 2009, he had a monster year, hitting .299 with 46 homers and 141 RBIs. He has now had an OBP of over .400 for three consecutive years, which is unheard of.

What I Would Be Willing To Give: 8 years, $225 million, $28.125 million per year
Will That Be Enough: Probably, most offers are rumored to be at 7 years and around $180 million

2. Yu Darvish, JAPAN

Darvish is probably the most talented available pitcher this off-season. He is 25 and currently pitches for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan. He is widely believed to be headed to the US this offseason, and the Rangers are one of the favorites to land him. Darvish has absolutely dominated Japanese hitters, with a 1.81 career ERA. In his four seasons, he has had ERAs of 1.82, 1.88, 1.73, and 1.78 in 207.2, 200.2, 182, and 202 innings pitched, respectively. He averages 9.2 strikeouts per 9 innings in his career. Scouts have said that he has as many as four plus pitches, and I would love to have him on the Rangers. He should be a true ace.

What I Would Be Willing To Give: $55 million posting fee, 5 years, $75 million, $15 million per year
Will That Be Enough: Probably, $55 million should be the top bid, and then Darvish would definitely accept 5 years, $75 million

3. CJ Wilson, TEX

CJ posted a 2.94 regular season ERA, was an All-Star, and threw 223.1 innings, but I still don’t consider him to be an ace even with those ace-like numbers. He is a great pitcher, and I would love to have him back, but his 0-3 postseason with a 5.79 ERA are not numbers that an ace would have in the playoffs. I would want to bring him back even if we get Yu Darvish, but I don’t want to give him ace money regardless of what happens with Darvish. The best-case scenario here would be to bring him back as our number 2 starter.

What I Would Be Willing To Give: 4 years, $65 million, $16.25 million per year
Will That Be Enough: Probably not, 5 years, $75 million has been rumored from some teams

4. Michael Cuddyer, MIN

Cuddyer would be a very good fit on a Rangers team that already has great hitting. Obviously, if the Rangers got Prince Fielder, which would be awesome, Cuddyer would not be considered by Texas. However, Michael plays first base and would definitely be an improvement over Moreland, and Cuddyer can also play right field if/when Nelson Cruz gets hurt. Michael made his first All-Star team this year, hitting .284 with 20 home runs and 70 RBIs. He is a very, very solid player that I would love to have. He is also known for being a great leader and is supposed to be great for a clubhouse.

What I Would Be Willing To Give: 3 years, $35 million, $11.67 million per year
Will That Be Enough: Probably, the highest offers rumored are 3 years, $30 million; only a home-town discount would make that offer not be enough

5. Ryan Madson, PHI

While the Rangers have a great closer in Neftali Feliz and a great replacement closer in Mike Adams if Feliz moves to the rotation, it would be good to get either a closer or an 8th-inning man in free agency so that Feliz can move to the rotation without the bullpen taking a major hit. And Madson fits that bill. He has been both a closer and a set-up man, but would almost surely be a closer if the Rangers were to sign him in free agency. Last year, Madson had 32 saves and a 2.37 ERA, and in 2010, as a set-up man, Madson had a 2.55 ERA. On top of regular season success, Ryan has pitched well in the postseason, with a 2.31 ERA in 35 career playoff innings on 33 appearances.

What I Would Be Willing To Give: 3 years, $25 million, $8.3 million per year
Will That Be Enough: Probably not; there are so many teams looking for closers this year, Madson will probably end up with around $10 million a year

6. Grady Sizemore, CLE

I know, he’s injury-prone, he hasn’t hit over .250 since 2008, and he strikes out way too much. But, still, on a one-year deal, Grady would be a great get, as long as you weren’t expecting the 2005-2008 form. What Grady still provides, when he is healthy, is unbelievable defense, very good speed on the basepaths, and some solid pop. And on a one-year deal, that allows him to play center next year, and then in 2013 Leonys Martin can take over, since he should be ready by then. Last year, Grady hit just .224, but he still had 10 home runs and 32 RBIs in only 71 games. Over a full season, those power numbers are about 25 homers and 80 RBIs. Those are very good power numbers to go along with his great defense.

What I Would Be Willing To Give: 1 year, $7.5 million
Will That Be Enough: Definitely, nobody will be willing to give him a multi-year deal, and the Indians just turned down a $9 million option, showing that they won’t go that high. And it doesn’t sound like anyone else will, either.

Come back next week for my free agent predictions.

World Series Predictions

This week the Rangers won the ALCS over the Detroit Tigers 4 games to 2 (which I predicted would happen) and punched their ticket to the World Series for the second straight year. I was there Saturday night to see them clinch and will be there this weekend for the World Series. I am so pumped and can’t wait for Wednesday, when the Series starts.

Below are my predictions for both potential World Series scenarios.

Rangers vs. Cardinals:

Game 1: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Chris Carpenter, STL in St. Louis

CARDINALS WIN – While Carpenter has only had one good start out of three so far this postseason, he still has a 3.71 postseason ERA, and had a great start in his only ever World Series appearance, going 8 scoreless innings. Also, CJ has been really struggling so far in these playoffs, with an 8.04 ERA, allowing 6 home runs, and allowing 6 earned runs in 2 of his 3 outings. He is doing this despite ending the year with a 1.21 September ERA. However, in his only World Series start last year, he allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings.

Game 2: Colby Lewis, TEX vs. Jaime Garcia, STL in St. Louis

RANGERS WIN – Colby will probably start Game 2 since it will be on the road, and he had a 3.43 road ERA this year compared to a 5.54 ERA at home. So far these playoffs he has had one great start and one bad start, totaling up to a 3.86 ERA. In his career, he has a 2.37 playoff ERA, and had a great start and picked up the win in his start in the World Series last year. Meanwhile, Jaime has struggled so far in the playoffs, with a 5.74 ERA. He didn’t get out of the 5th inning in either of his two NLCS starts, and I see those struggles continuing against this great Rangers lineup.

Game 3: Derek Holland, TEX vs. Edwin Jackson, STL in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – While Edwin Jackson has done well so far in these playoffs, I don’t think that will continue. I think the Rangers offense will get to him early and often, and get to the bullpen early in the game. Meanwhile, Holland has been awful so far in these playoffs, with a 5.27 ERA, and I think the Cards will get to the Rangers bullpen early, too. Both bullpens have been great so far in the postseason, and so I give this game to the Rangers based on the hitting edge. By the way, I think that Scott Feldman should take Holland’s spot in the rotation.

Game 4: Matt Harrison, TEX vs. Kyle Lohse, STL in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – While Harrison hasn’t gone deep into either of his two starts, he has allowed only 2 runs in 5 innings in each game, which is enough to let the Rangers shutdown bullpen win the game. Kyle Lohse, however, has been awful in the playoffs so far, with a 7.45 ERA, and 9 runs, 8 earned, in just 9.2 innings. In his 8 career playoff outings, Lohse has a 5.09 ERA.

Game 5: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Chris Carpenter, STL in Arlington

CARDINALS WIN – Carpenter shows up big in big games, and CJ hasn’t shown that this postseason.

Game 6: Colby Lewis, TEX vs. Jaime Garcia, STL in St. Louis

RANGERS WIN – Lewis has been good on the road and in the playoffs in his career, but the major reason the Rangers win this one is because of the run support Colby should get.

Rangers win World Series 4 games to 2.


Rangers vs. Brewers:

Game 1: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Zack Grienke, MIL in Milwaukee

RANGERS WIN – This one will probably be a very high scoring game, as CJ has an 8.04 playoff ERA and Grienke has a 6.48 playoff ERA, and both are facing prolific offenses. I think the difference here will be that CJ has World Series experience while Grienke does not.

Game 2: Colby Lewis, TEX vs. Randy Wolf, MIL in Milwaukee

RANGERS WIN – Once again, Colby will probably go in Game 2 since he has been much better on the road than at home this season. And while Colby has been good in the playoffs throughout his career, Randy Wolf has not and has an 8.10 ERA this postseason, allowing 4 home runs in 10 innings to offenses that are nowhere near as powerful as the Rangers’. Also, the Rangers bullpen is better than the Brewers, which should have a big effect in this one, as I don’t expect either starter to go deep into the game.

Game 3: Derek Holland, TEX vs. Shaun Marcum, MIL in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – While Holland has not been good in these playoffs, with a 5.27 ERA, and having no starts in which he has gone more than 5 innings, Shaun Marcum has been much worse. In two starts so far, Shaun has a 12.46 ERA, allowing 7 runs, all earned in 4.2 innings in his first start, and 5 runs, all earned in 4 innings in his second start. Also, the Brewers were 39-42 on the road during the season, and are 1-4 on the road so far in the playoffs.

Game 4: Matt Harrison, TEX vs. Yovani Gallardo, MIL in Arlington

BREWERS WIN – Gallardo has been the only good pitcher for the Brewers in the playoffs so far, with a 2.84 ERA, but even he has had a bad start, allowing 4 runs in 5 innings in his first NLCS start. Unfortunately for the Brewers, he will have to pitch Game 7 of the NLCS (if there is one), most likely making him the Game 4 starter. And while Harrison hasn’t been bad, he hasn’t been good, either.

Game 5: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Zack Grienke, MIL in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – This should be another high scoring game, but the Rangers get the edge due to the Brewers’ road struggles and the team’s experience.

Rangers win World Series 4 games to 1.

Come back next week for more World Series coverage.

LCS Predictions

I had a great weekend in Arlington last weekend (two Rangers playoff games plus a Cowboys game) and am about to head out for tonight’s ALCS game, followed by another one tomorrow night. It’s definitely a good time to be a Rangers fan.

This week I made my predictions for the two League Championship Series.

ALCS:

Rangers vs. Tigers

Game 1: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Justin Verlander, DET in Arlington

TIGERS WIN – While neither pitcher has pitched too well so far in the playoffs, CJ with a 10.80 ERA and Verlander with a 5.00 ERA, this one should be a pitchers’ duel. However, Justin has the upper edge in this one as he is definitely the best pitcher in the American League right now. Both starters have only faced the other team once so far this year. However, if it can be a 1 or 2 run Tigers lead and Verlander gives the ball to the bullpen, the Rangers could definitely make that up, as the Tiger bullpen has been shaky so far this postseason.

Game 2: Derek Holland, TEX vs. Max Scherzer, DET in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – Derek and Max each allowed just 1 earned run in their first postseason start this year, and they both picked up the win. They also both finished the year off well. However, Derek had both a better year and a better finish to the year than Scherzer did. Also, Scherzer didn’t exactly shut the Rangers down when he faced them this year, as he allowed 9 runs, all earned, in 17 innings in his 3 starts on the year against the Rangers.

Game 3: Colby Lewis, TEX vs. Doug Fister, DET in Detroit

RANGERS WIN – While based on the pitchers’ regular seasons, it would appear as if Detroit had a huge advantage in this game, that actually is not the case. During the season, Colby had a 4.40 ERA, including a 4.66 September ERA. Meanwhile, Doug Fister had a 2.83 ERA, including a 0.53 September ERA, a month in which he went 5-0. But Doug has been awful so far in the playoffs, and in 2 games against the Yankees in the ALDS, he went a total of just 9.2 innings, allowing 7 runs, a 6.52 ERA. And in Colby’s first start, he backed up his clutch pitching in last year’s playoffs (where he went 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in 26.1 innings), by allowing only 1 run on 1 hit in 6 innings of work.

Game 4: Matt Harrison, TEX vs. Rick Porcello, DET in Detroit

RANGERS WIN – Matt has the edge in this match-up in both the regular season and postseason stats. While Harrison had a very good regular season, with a 3.39 ERA, Porcello really, really struggled, as he posted a 4.75 ERA. Also, Rick had a bad first start of the postseason, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings, while Matt allowed 2 runs in 5 innings in his only start so far. Also, the bullpen should play an important role in this game, with Porcello not known for going deep into games, and the Rangers have an advantage in this category.

Game 5: CJ Wilson, TEX vs. Justin Verlander, DET in Detroit

TIGERS WIN – Once again, it should be a pitchers’ duel, and I could see the Rangers pulling out a close one here, but Verlander is just too good. The guy won the pitching triple crown this year and should be the MVP of the league.

Game 6: Derek Holland, TEX vs. Max Scherzer, DET in Arlington

RANGERS WIN – Derek has pitched better than Scherzer this year, and has a knack for pitching very well in big games.

RANGERS DEFEAT TIGERS 4-2

NLCS:

Brewers vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals have not yet announced their pitching rotation, but they will be outmatched in most games. In game 1, they will be facing Zack Greinke, who has an 11-0 record and a 3.13 ERA at home this year. They will also have to face Shaun Marcum, who posted a 3.54 ERA, and Yovani Gallardo, the ace, who had a 3.52 regular season ERA, and has a 1.29 ERA so far this postseason. The Brewers also have a dynamite offense, with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, both MVP candidates, anchoring the lineup. Not to mention Milwaukee’s shut-down bullpen.

However, the Cardinals do have a solid rotation, with Jaime Garcia (3.56 ERA), Chris Carpenter (3.45 ERA), Kyle Lohse (3.39 ERA), and Edwin Jackson (3.79 ERA). But, they just do not have the offense or the bullpen to match up to the Brewers, and it would be very surprising to me if the Cards won this series.

BREWERS DEFEAT CARDINALS 4-2

Come back next week for more playoff coverage.

End Of Season Awards

This week the Rangers defeated the Rays 3 games to 1 in the ALDS. They will play either the Yankees or the Tigers in the ALCS, and I think they match up well with both teams. I will make my predictions once I know which team they will face.

This week I will do my end-of-season awards for the AL, NL, and Rangers.

Rangers:

MVP: Michael Young, TEX (.338 AVG, 11 HR, 106 RBI) – Michael led the Rangers in batting average, and was second in the AL in that category. And while he didn’t have many home runs, he still got over 100 RBIs.
Runner-up: Adrian Beltre, TEX (.296 AVG, 32 HR, 105 RBI)

Cy Young: CJ Wilson, TEX (16-7, 2.94 ERA, 206 K) – CJ led the team in ERA, strikeouts, and tied for the team lead in wins. He obviously deserved this one.
Runner-up: Derek Holland, TEX (16-5, 3.95 ERA, 162 K)

Rookie of the Year: Craig Gentry, TEX (.271 AVG, 1 HR, 13 RBI) – Craig played well, as he stole 18 bases on 18 attempts, played great defense, and had a respectable batting average. But, he won this award because of weak competition. The runner-up had 8 at-bats on the year.
Runner-up: Leonys Martin, TEX (.375 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI)

AL:

MVP: Justin Verlander, DET (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 250 K, 251 IP) – Verlander was amazing, and despite being a pitcher, he deserves the MVP. He had 24 wins, which is a crazy number nowadays, to go along with a league-leading 2.40 ERA, and 250 strikeouts in an astounding 251 innings pitched.
Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera, DET (.344 AVG, 30 HR, 105 RBI)

Cy Young: Justin Verlander, DET (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 250 K, 251 IP) – If he won my MVP, he obviously is going to win the Cy Young. He won the pitching triple crown.
Runner-up: Jered Weaver, LAA (18-8, 2.41 ERA, 198 K)

Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson, TB (13-10, 2.95 ERA, 117 K) – Hellickson had an ERA in the 2.00s on a playoff team in his rookie year. That is just unbelievable.
Runner-up: Mark Trumbo, LAA (.254 AVG, 29 HR, 87 RBI)

Manager of the Year: Joe Madden, TB (91-71, wild card) – Joe brought a team back from the largest September deficit ever for a playoff team. This one is a no-brainer.
Runner-up: Jim Leyland, DET (95-67, AL Central Champs)

NL:

MVP: Ryan Braun, MIL (.332 AVG, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 33 SB) – Braun’s stats might not be quite as good as Matt Kemp’s, but the difference is that while Braun is on a playoff team, Kemp was on a 3rd-place team. Braun hit over .330, and was a 30-30 man this year. He had an amazing year.
Runner-up: Matt Kemp, LAD (.324 AVG, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 SB)

Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LAD (21-5, 2.28 ERA, 248 K) – Kershaw won the pitching triple crown in the National League, so there is no way you can pick against him. He had 21 wins, the best ERA in the major leagues, and almost 250 strikeouts.
Runner-up: Ian Kennedy, ARI (21-4, 2.88 ERA, 198 K)

Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel, ATL (46 SV, 2.10 ERA, 127 K) – Despite a late-season collapse by Kimbrel, he still had an incredible season. He set the rookie saves record with 46, had an ERA just above 2.00, and had a crazy 127 strikeouts in just 77 innings pitched.
Runner-up: Josh Collmenter, ARI (10-10, 3.38 ERA, 100 K)

Manager of the Year: Kirk Gibson, ARI (94-68, NL West Champs) – Gibson manages a team that was projected to finish in last place this year, after finishing in the cellar of the division last year, and made them into the runaway NL West Champions. He definitely deserved to be the NL Manager of the Year.
Runner-up: Tony La Russa, STL (90-72, wild card)

Come back next week for my ALCS and NLCS series predictions.